Yikes ... Elon quote from the shareholders meeting...

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#41
anyone else think Elon's comment on the semi event in september having a surprise think it will be pulling a car carrier of 3s for delivery at that event? would probably land about the same time as the first non-employee deliveries are expected.
That makes absolute sense. Would be an exciting event.
 
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#42
I made i mistake - I bought a Model S and revealed to my wife that I had to plan SC stops and time for charging. This "burden" of planning is so great, that she no longer wishes to have a second Tesla. She thinks her ICE will let her drive to anywhere and fill up anywhere and take only a few minutes to fill. This inertia of habit makes all my wishes for color/battery/motors and all things Model 3....moot. I can't buy a Model 3 if the wife does not want one. Price and timing don't matter. She loves my Model S, is happy that the engineer in the family has one, but she has no desire to read these forums, or even read the owners manual on her ICE.
The Model 3 will have to be snazzy to cause her to flip attitude. I guess I'll just have to settle for driving a Model S for awhile.
 

JRP3

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#46
So Tesla will be using the same strategy that they use on the S for dual-motors.
From his wording "two different motor architectures" I've speculated that the city optimized motor may be PM instead of induction, which would be a different strategy than the S/X.
 

JRP3

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#47
anyone else think Elon's comment on the semi event in september having a surprise think it will be pulling a car carrier of 3s for delivery at that event? would probably land about the same time as the first non-employee deliveries are expected.
I don't think that's what he's talking about, not much of a surprise.
 

AEDennis

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#48
I don't think that's what he's talking about, not much of a surprise.
The fact that we saw first glimpses of the Y at the Annual Meeting might also mean that his "something else" might just be prototype Y... if his target for that is 2019... 2 years of teases seems to be par for the course.
 

AEDennis

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#49
I made i mistake - I bought a Model S and revealed to my wife that I had to plan SC stops and time for charging. This "burden" of planning is so great, that she no longer wishes to have a second Tesla. She thinks her ICE will let her drive to anywhere and fill up anywhere and take only a few minutes to fill. This inertia of habit makes all my wishes for color/battery/motors and all things Model 3....moot. I can't buy a Model 3 if the wife does not want one. Price and timing don't matter. She loves my Model S, is happy that the engineer in the family has one, but she has no desire to read these forums, or even read the owners manual on her ICE.
The Model 3 will have to be snazzy to cause her to flip attitude. I guess I'll just have to settle for driving a Model S for awhile.
Actually the car will tell you where to stop and charge on trips. I just got back from the Annual Meeting and drove home and the trip planner tells you to stop and charge along the route. Just tell her to stay an extra ten minutes or so than the recommended if she has a heavy foot.
 
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#50
From his wording "two different motor architectures" I've speculated that the city optimized motor may be PM instead of induction, which would be a different strategy than the S/X.
Wish you would not use abbreviations....What is a PM? prime minister, public message?
 

JRP3

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#52
Permanent Magnet. PMAC, PMDC, Brushless DC, all basically the same thing, motors using permanent magnets instead of induced magnetic currents, i.e. AC induction, which is what Tesla currently uses. PM motors can be more efficient at lower power levels than AC induction, which is why I'm speculating that Tesla might use them as the front motor for improved city efficiency.
 

NOGA$4ME

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#53
Very well stated. Assuming everything continues as planned I would imagine all pre-unveil reservations (in the US) may be delivered in 2017. I then anticipate car 200,000 hits in 2017 and the credit shifts down to $3,750 on April 1.
There is practically no way this happens.

Elon stated a long time ago he will "do the right thing" to ensure that the maximum number of people get the tax credit, and I am taking him at his word on this.

To hit 200K in 2017 is practically impossible (I'm projecting they will be sitting at about 170K by YE2017). But even if the Model 3 ramps up incredibly quickly (adding another 30K in 4Q17--I'm currently assuming 12K in that quarter), that would still put car #200K in late December and there is no way in hell Elon is going to ship car #200K in the last week of a quarter. He will hold back shipments of Model 3 and divert deliveries of Model S and X to outside the US if he has to, but I can practically guarantee that car #200K will be shipped within the first week or two of a given quarter, and I think it's likely that that quarter will be 2Q18 rather than 1Q18. That will provide the full credit all the way through Sept 2018.

And even if everything happens perfectly according to plan and the ramp up is even faster than Elon currently claims, they will cross 200K in 1Q18 meaning the full credit will be available until the end of June.
 

SoFlaModel3

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#54
There is practically no way this happens.

Elon stated a long time ago he will "do the right thing" to ensure that the maximum number of people get the tax credit, and I am taking him at his word on this.

To hit 200K in 2017 is practically impossible (I'm projecting they will be sitting at about 170K by YE2017). But even if the Model 3 ramps up incredibly quickly (adding another 30K in 4Q17--I'm currently assuming 12K in that quarter), that would still put car #200K in late December and there is no way in hell Elon is going to ship car #200K in the last week of a quarter. He will hold back shipments of Model 3 and divert deliveries of Model S and X to outside the US if he has to, but I can practically guarantee that car #200K will be shipped within the first week or two of a given quarter, and I think it's likely that that quarter will be 2Q18 rather than 1Q18. That will provide the full credit all the way through Sept 2018.

And even if everything happens perfectly according to plan and the ramp up is even faster than Elon currently claims, they will cross 200K in 1Q18 meaning the full credit will be available until the end of June.
I don't have the numbers in front of me, but aren't they at 120k or so? They produce what 40k cars per quarter now and at least half stay in the US? That means with no Model 3, by end of year they're at ~180k? There is no way they aren't hitting 200k unless my numbers are wrong or something bad happens to Model 3 ramp....
 

NOGA$4ME

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#56
I have them at about 112K at the end of 2016, with 15,590 YTD 2017 (this quarter estimated of course), so that puts them at 127539 as of the end of May. I am assuming 2000 Model S per month (growing to 2269 by YE) and 1550 Model X per month (growing to 1730 by YE). This seems to be roughly in line with recent months estimates (if not even a bit optimistic for the Model S). So let's call that about 6300 S and 4800 X per quarter, or about 11K per quarter (not 20K that you are assuming, but hey, I could be wrong). For the Model 3 ramp I am assuming (and really this is my own gut feel):
Jul: 1000
Aug: 1000
Sep: 2000
Oct: 2000
Nov: 5000
Dec: 5000

You could probably make the argument that it will ramp up better than that, or maybe take on a little bit different profile (maybe only really start going in September), but that's what I'm assuming.

Adding all that together:
127539 +
15129 Model S +
11538 Model X +
16000 Model 3

and I am projecting they will be sitting at 170,206 at the end of 2017. Even if we double my 4Q17 numbers (adding another 12K), we're still at 182K. Triple and we are at 194K. That would be in incredibly optimistic result and that still doesn't get us to 200K before the end of 2017. And even if you somehow managed to squeeze out 40K Model 3's in 4Q17 (3K cars per week) AND manage to deliver them all, you would still only hit 200K within the last week or two of the quarter, and like I said, there is no way in hell that Elon is going to ship car #200,000 in the last weeks of a quarter!
 

NOGA$4ME

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#57
BTW, and I know it's slightly off topic, but I estimate GM at 168525 at YE17, or just barely behind Tesla. But because they will not have a massive ramp of the Bolt like the Model 3, and will see competition from LEAF 2.0, they will likely be at least 2 quarters behind Tesla when it comes to crossing 200K
 

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#58
I have them at about 112K at the end of 2016, with 15,590 YTD 2017 (this quarter estimated of course), so that puts them at 127539 as of the end of May. I am assuming 2000 Model S per month (growing to 2269 by YE) and 1550 Model X per month (growing to 1730 by YE). This seems to be roughly in line with recent months estimates (if not even a bit optimistic for the Model S). So let's call that about 6300 S and 4800 X per quarter, or about 11K per quarter (not 20K that you are assuming, but hey, I could be wrong). For the Model 3 ramp I am assuming (and really this is my own gut feel):
Jul: 1000
Aug: 1000
Sep: 2000
Oct: 2000
Nov: 5000
Dec: 5000

You could probably make the argument that it will ramp up better than that, or maybe take on a little bit different profile (maybe only really start going in September), but that's what I'm assuming.

Adding all that together:
127539 +
15129 Model S +
11538 Model X +
16000 Model 3

and I am projecting they will be sitting at 170,206 at the end of 2017. Even if we double my 4Q17 numbers (adding another 12K), we're still at 182K. Triple and we are at 194K. That would be in incredibly optimistic result and that still doesn't get us to 200K before the end of 2017. And even if you somehow managed to squeeze out 40K Model 3's in 4Q17 (3K cars per week) AND manage to deliver them all, you would still only hit 200K within the last week or two of the quarter, and like I said, there is no way in hell that Elon is going to ship car #200,000 in the last weeks of a quarter!
Thanks for the details! I think we will see more Model 3's this year, but even still your numbers suggest Q1 is when they hit 200,000 and thus extended the credit as long as possible.
 

Kbm3

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#59
I have them at about 112K at the end of 2016, with 15,590 YTD 2017 (this quarter estimated of course), so that puts them at 127539 as of the end of May. I am assuming 2000 Model S per month (growing to 2269 by YE) and 1550 Model X per month (growing to 1730 by YE). This seems to be roughly in line with recent months estimates (if not even a bit optimistic for the Model S). So let's call that about 6300 S and 4800 X per quarter, or about 11K per quarter (not 20K that you are assuming, but hey, I could be wrong). For the Model 3 ramp I am assuming (and really this is my own gut feel):
Jul: 1000
Aug: 1000
Sep: 2000
Oct: 2000
Nov: 5000
Dec: 5000

You could probably make the argument that it will ramp up better than that, or maybe take on a little bit different profile (maybe only really start going in September), but that's what I'm assuming.

Adding all that together:
127539 +
15129 Model S +
11538 Model X +
16000 Model 3

and I am projecting they will be sitting at 170,206 at the end of 2017. Even if we double my 4Q17 numbers (adding another 12K), we're still at 182K. Triple and we are at 194K. That would be in incredibly optimistic result and that still doesn't get us to 200K before the end of 2017. And even if you somehow managed to squeeze out 40K Model 3's in 4Q17 (3K cars per week) AND manage to deliver them all, you would still only hit 200K within the last week or two of the quarter, and like I said, there is no way in hell that Elon is going to ship car #200,000 in the last weeks of a quarter!
Tesla has informed their suppliers that they have a target of 4000 cars per week by September. And that they will definitely hit 5000 cars per week this year. If they are anywhere near this ( which for some insanely optimistic reason I think will happen) it will greatly exceed exceed your estimate.
 

Demetre

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#60
Tesla has informed their suppliers that they have a target of 4000 cars per week by September. And that they will definitely hit 5000 cars per week this year. If they are anywhere near this ( which for some insanely optimistic reason I think will happen) it will greatly exceed exceed your estimate.
They can build as many as they want, as long as they don't sell #200,000 before January. They can stockpile prior to 2018 and maximize sales in the first two quarters. Only drawback is timely distribution which is an acceptable trade for maximum tax credits in the states