Why I am buying Full Self Driving

Guy Weathersby

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#1
A lot of people have explained why they do not plan to initially buy FSD, but I have not seen anyone explain why they will buy it with the car. So I will give some of my reasons for buying FSD.


First let me say that some of the reasons for delaying FSD are unassailable, if you have a tight budget, using your funds for things that cannot be added later makes sense. Some of my reasons are speculative,and my track record at guessing what Tesla is going to do has not been very accurate, you should take it with a grain of salt. I was really sure about the HUD. Mind you, most other people's guesses haven’t been much better.


My best guess is that full autonomy will work and be approved by regulatory authorities in at least some parts of the United States in 2019. I am going with the estimates that it will require three billion miles of logs to get FSD completely working and convince regulators. If the Model 3 ramp goes well I would guess that we will reach the required millage by early 2019. I would estimate six months for the final sign offs by the federal government. I think that some US states will follow almost immediately. If this is correct, spending $4000 in about two years to avoid spending $3000 new is a very high interest rate.


I think that FSD will be implemented as a driving aid before it is ready for full autonomy. Think of it as an Enhanced Enhanced Autopilot. So long as the driver remains in the loop and is fully responsible, I don’t think that this will present a problem for regulators. It would not surprize me if next spring, when I should get my car, that FSD will actually do something. Personally I am hoping to be able to watch the FSD option mature into real autonomy, sounds like fun,well worth $1000 if it works out as I expect.


Also, someone compared it to a Kickstarter campaign and I like the idea of being able to express support and confidence in something that represents a better future.
 

JMON

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#3
My daily commute is abnormally short at 15 min (one way) so I'll be forgoing the purchase of both AP & FSD until the Tesla Network is online and regulatory approved here in Canada. At that point we'll sell our current vehicle (2014 Jeep Cherokee) and share the Model 3 between my wife and I.

Two other things to consider are: Could be a reduced cost for AP & FSD if you sign onto the Tesla Network or perhaps allow the service to help pay towards the cost of AP & FSD. And another scenario could be a reduced cost for AP & FSD in the future - the cost could also be raised though.
 

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#4
A lot of people have explained why they do not plan to initially buy FSD, but I have not seen anyone explain why they will buy it with the car. So I will give some of my reasons for buying FSD.


First let me say that some of the reasons for delaying FSD are unassailable, if you have a tight budget, using your funds for things that cannot be added later makes sense. Some of my reasons are speculative,and my track record at guessing what Tesla is going to do has not been very accurate, you should take it with a grain of salt. I was really sure about the HUD. Mind you, most other people's guesses haven’t been much better.


My best guess is that full autonomy will work and be approved by regulatory authorities in at least some parts of the United States in 2019. I am going with the estimates that it will require three billion miles of logs to get FSD completely working and convince regulators. If the Model 3 ramp goes well I would guess that we will reach the required millage by early 2019. I would estimate six months for the final sign offs by the federal government. I think that some US states will follow almost immediately. If this is correct, spending $4000 in about two years to avoid spending $3000 new is a very high interest rate.


I think that FSD will be implemented as a driving aid before it is ready for full autonomy. Think of it as an Enhanced Enhanced Autopilot. So long as the driver remains in the loop and is fully responsible, I don’t think that this will present a problem for regulators. It would not surprize me if next spring, when I should get my car, that FSD will actually do something. Personally I am hoping to be able to watch the FSD option mature into real autonomy, sounds like fun,well worth $1000 if it works out as I expect.


Also, someone compared it to a Kickstarter campaign and I like the idea of being able to express support and confidence in something that represents a better future.
Good points.

I think they might give something special to those who buy it years before its ready. I think 2019 is best case scenario. I'm going to guess 2020. Maybe they will consider the $1000 enough but there may be more to it. At the very least I believe its likely they will upgrade the hardware and the people who pre-ordered will get the new hardware first. I agree that there may be some Autopilot upgrade as some point. Maybe a level 4 on the freeway or something like that.
 

Guy Weathersby

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#6
Good points.

I think they might give something special to those who buy it years before its ready. I think 2019 is best case scenario. I'm going to guess 2020. Maybe they will consider the $1000 enough but there may be more to it. At the very least I believe its likely they will upgrade the hardware and the people who pre-ordered will get the new hardware first. I agree that there may be some Autopilot upgrade as some point. Maybe a level 4 on the freeway or something like that.
Personally, I would be surprised if they make any hardware changes before full autonomy is approved. Of course, I am often surprised.
 

smak

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#7
One thing in favor of buying it now is that you're not going to be able to finance the $4k in the future.

You'll have to pay that full out of pocket, where the $3k now is like $45 a month for 72 months.
 

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#9
Personally, I would be surprised if they make any hardware changes before full autonomy is approved. Of course, I am often surprised.
Certainly not before but if it turns out what's in there now won't cut it they will have to upgrade once it gets approved.
 

Sitter_k

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#10
Personally, I would be surprised if they make any hardware changes before full autonomy is approved. Of course, I am often surprised.
Why wouldn't they? Tesla has constantly shown that they do not hold back their tech. Not only that, i believe ap Tech and hardware will only get better and some decision makers Tesla or government might insist on more advanced systems as added safety, redundancy or capability. FSD will be viewed under a constant microscope and can't afford any failures no matter how statistically unlikely they were or how implausible the situation was.
 

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#13
And tesla has stated the 2.0 vs 2.5 that they do not expect to make a difference in fsd abilities, but if it ends up it does, they would update the 2.0 computer.
Right. I was saying they likely won't upgrade cars that have already been sold until full self driving is approved. For example they aren't going to upgrade 2.0 cars to 2.5 unless they have to, to achieve FSD and they won't do it until FSD is approved. The reason being costs will come down dramatically in the next couple years. The fact they made this change suggests they might be solving a problem they know they have in 2.0 and they think 2.5 might cut it. But the 2.5 upgrade seems to be more about redundancy than AI compute power. The AI computing capability is what has been speculated as not being sufficient. But if you look at Nvidia's roadmap their latest AI platform Xavier isn't supposed to come out till the end of the year so it likely wasn't available for the Model 3. They have a dual GPU they call Drive PX for Autochauffer that is available now that they say is capable of point to point travel but Tesla is only using a single GPU. This makes me think Tesla may just be waiting for the Xavier or competing hardware to come out and for the price to come down while they wait for FSD approval. Could be they know 2.0 and 2.5 won't work for FSD but its just cheaper and better marketing to do what they are doing.
 

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#14
I'm sure most have seen this already, but a reminder of how incredible the future ("meaning now" as Elon stated) will be...

What's odd is that this video is so FAR from where AP2.0 is now that it's really hard to believe. If they can do this why does AP2 try to kill you on straight 2 lane roads sometimes? I'm looking forward to this coming to reality, but right now it's not much more than advanced lane keeping from my experience with it.
 
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#15
Right. I was saying they likely won't upgrade cars that have already been sold until full self driving is approved. For example they aren't going to upgrade 2.0 cars to 2.5 unless they have to, to achieve FSD and they won't do it until FSD is approved. The reason being costs will come down dramatically in the next couple years. The fact they made this change suggests they might be solving a problem they know they have in 2.0 and they think 2.5 might cut it. But the 2.5 upgrade seems to be more about redundancy than AI compute power. The AI computing capability is what has been speculated as not being sufficient. But if you look at Nvidia's roadmap their latest AI platform Xavier isn't supposed to come out till the end of the year so it likely wasn't available for the Model 3. They have a dual GPU they call Drive PX for Autochauffer that is available now that they say is capable of point to point travel but Tesla is only using a single GPU. This makes me think Tesla may just be waiting for the Xavier or competing hardware to come out and for the price to come down while they wait for FSD approval. Could be they know 2.0 and 2.5 won't work for FSD but its just cheaper and better marketing to do what they are doing.
Actually, Tesla has a SoC designer (the designer of AMD's Ryzen) on the payroll. They have, also, been
in contract negotiations with Samsung to mass produce a SoC, for them. In other words, Tesla will likely create their own compute solution for future AP implementations.
 
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#16
Actually, Tesla has a SoC designer (the designer of AMD's Ryzen) on the payroll. They have, also, being in contract negotiations with Samsung to mass produce a SoC, for them. In other words, Tesla will likely create their own compute solution for future AP implementations.
Good point. That would fall under the "competing hardware".
 

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#17
Sounds like congress might act on regulation.
http://www.techrepublic.com/article...ed-up-self-driving-car-deployments-next-week/

Seems like this would limit Tesla's ability to turn on self driving to all their cars at once since they would have more than they would be allowed. If this is the case this may be a reason to purchase the self driving up front because I presume those would be the first people to get it.
 

MelindaV

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#18
Sounds like congress might act on regulation.
http://www.techrepublic.com/article...ed-up-self-driving-car-deployments-next-week/

Seems like this would limit Tesla's ability to turn on self driving to all their cars at once since they would have more than they would be allowed. If this is the case this may be a reason to purchase the self driving up front because I presume those would be the first people to get it.
However, the limits are just for deploying self driving vehicles that do not meet the current safety standards. So tesla in it’s current form does meet the current safety standards. Removing side mirrors would not meet.
 

NRG4All

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#19
Now that it is September, is there any hope Tesla may release the number of deliveries for the Model 3? They had set a goal of 100 units. It would be nice to know if they've met or exceeded that projection.
 

Michael Russo

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#20
Now that it is September, is there any hope Tesla may release the number of deliveries for the Model 3? They had set a goal of 100 units. It would be nice to know if they've met or exceeded that projection.
Pure conjecture yet with the highest VIN # spotted, they must be well above 200 cumulatively for the first 2 months... lift off for September likely! :)