When will US Model Y ship with 4680 Cells?

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Fuddinator

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When does everyone think we will see US Model Y's with 4680 cells? I am looking at a Model Y but I'm in no rush so trying to decide to buy now or wait for battery upgrades.
 

GDN

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I believe this could be at least 2, maybe 3 years down the road. I believe the 3 and Y will continue to get the current cells until the process is perfected and capacity is built up to first put them in the S, X and the Truck and they will need a lot of the for the trucks.

I would love to see this be different and all cars be upgraded, but we already know from battery day that production is constrained and they are still perfecting the method.

This could also be used as a differentiator between the 3/Y and the S/X, maybe they never put the new cell in them if they can continue to squeeze gains out of the current cell, they just use those since there is already a huge investment in Reno to make those cells. They have to make enough of them to pay for the investment, and that could likely be several more years.
 
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Ed Woodrick

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It's technology, if you are waiting to buy a new PC because the features keep changing, you will never buy one.

Just go for it. The new batteries probably won't even be noticed.
 
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TrevP

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We don't know for sure but the latest info suggests Model S/X which are heavily rumoured to be getting a refresh and going into production shortly will get them first

 

JasonF

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When does everyone think we will see US Model Y's with 4680 cells? I am looking at a Model Y but I'm in no rush so trying to decide to buy now or wait for battery upgrades.

The primary focus for the new batteries is not increased capacity - it's bringing the cost down. The battery capacity (around 75 kWh) and therefore estimated mileage probably won't increase significantly until Tesla hits its reduced cost battery target first. So as the owner/driver of the car, you won't really see any benefit from the new cells until years later when you trade in the new Model Y for a newer model. The only thing you might regret is around the halfway point when the battery cost reductions might cause the base price of the Model Y to come down.
 

SoFlaModel3

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One sure fire way to get them into the Model Y faster would be for me to buy a Model Y today ;)

All kidding aside, I have learned with Tesla much like phones, tvs, computers, etc; to stop stressing the next tech coming because as soon as it gets it there is something else on the horizon that I'll want to wait for next.
 

shareef777

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The primary focus for the new batteries is not increased capacity - it's bringing the cost down. The battery capacity (around 75 kWh) and therefore estimated mileage probably won't increase significantly until Tesla hits its reduced cost battery target first. So as the owner/driver of the car, you won't really see any benefit from the new cells until years later when you trade in the new Model Y for a newer model. The only thing you might regret is around the halfway point when the battery cost reductions might cause the base price of the Model Y to come down.

Weren't the batteries supposed to be more power dense and have better longevity (ie, million mile battery)? That's pretty considerable for anyone planning on keeping their vehicles 10+ years.
 

JasonF

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Weren't the batteries supposed to be more power dense and have better longevity (ie, million mile battery)? That's pretty considerable for anyone planning on keeping their vehicles 10+ years.

That goal was so last year. Now they're going for cutting the cost and increasing the cell yield.
 

garsh

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When does everyone think we will see US Model Y's with 4680 cells? I am looking at a Model Y but I'm in no rush so trying to decide to buy now or wait for battery upgrades.
My guess is: when Giga Texas is complete and they start building Model Ys there (about two years). I base this on:
  • They can't afford to shut down the Model Y line in Fremont to make such a drastic change to the assembly line - they need the income from the production.
  • They're already planning to have 4680 packs for Model Y in Berlin, so Tesla has already designed this version of the Y (see tweet below).
  • They're planning to add a Model Y manufacturing line in Texas.
  • If they're building a brand new production line, they'll make sure it's building the version of the car with the latest technology.
  • At that point, they can afford to shut down and update the Fremont lines as needed.
 
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Fuddinator

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I believe this could be at least 2, maybe 3 years down the road. I believe the 3 and Y will continue to get the current cells until the process is perfected and capacity is built up to first put them in the S, X and the Truck and they will need a lot of the for the trucks.

I would love to see this be different and all cars be upgraded, but we already know from battery day that production is constrained and they are still perfecting the method.

This could also be used as a differentiator between the 3/Y and the S/X, maybe they never put the new cell in them if they can continue to squeeze gains out of the current cell, they just use those since there is already a huge investment in Reno to make those cells. They have to make enough of the to pay for the investment, and that could likely be several more years.
Really good points there. Hoping the heated steering wheel, bio-defense show up in US soon.
 

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