When will Model ≡ make the US top 20?

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Michael Russo

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#1
I hesitated in putting this one under the EV Statistics thread, yet since it is Model ≡-specific and actually more about projective statistics, this is probably an appropriate location... ;)
Anyways, as a late addition to M3OC, I did not remember the stated goal from Elon/T≡SLA to deliver all Model ≡ reserved ahead of the reveal (i.e. what the author interprets to be ~50k, US reservations only) before YE17.
However, since it is on the high side of what some of us have already openly premised in this space and because the entire article has a nice, feel good spirit to it... you know me, I like to share my joy with y'all! :)
https://cleantechnica.com/
 

MelindaV

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#2
I did not remember the stated goal from Elon/T≡SLA to deliver all Model ≡ reserved ahead of the reveal (i.e. what the author interprets to be ~50k, US reservations only) before YE17
This Fortune article included the following (not specific to Model ☰) :
"Ultimately, Musk says he wants to boost Tesla's car shipments to 500,000 per year by 2020 - about five times what it expects to achieve in 2016. The model 3 is critical to that effort, since it will attract a broader consumer base."

I think it's safe to say they will be at 500k/year by 2020.
I don't know that Tesla or EM publicly stated prior to March 31st what they expect for initial sales - but following (whatever that first Q/A meeting was after the reveal, shareholders meeting(?)) EM and JB.S (maybe F.VH) were joking back and forth on their internal bets on reservation numbers - none were even close to 100k. I can't find the quote I was thinking of, but from memory they were thinking something under 50,000 total for the first weekend (March 31 - April 3)!
 

Red Sage

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#3
I know of Elon Musk saying he would like to Deliver between 100,000 and 200,000 units of Model ☰ during 2017. I will presume that around 90% of Deliveries during 2017 will be to U.S. Customers, with around 10% to Canadians, possibly more to Europe. If they are on the low end of Elon's stated goal, 90,000 units Delivered in the U.S. would not be enough to make the top 20-to-25 passenger cars in 2017. So, it would definitely not make the top 20-to-25 vehicles overall either. On the other hand... If the Model ☰ is up to speed in Production to begin 2018, and 90% of Deliveries in Q1 are to U.S. Customers during that timeframe...? Then I have no doubt that 90,000 units would crack the top 20-to-25 to START the year. So, as Tesla would still need to service Canada and Europe, some portion of Production would have to be set aside for shipment to them. Really, it depends upon how important it is to Tesla to make their numbers in the U.S. as opposed to worldwide. Because if they are certain to Deliver over 200,000 units in 2018 anyway, they might not want to drop those all in the first half of the year, for the sake of having assurance of stock reaching as many Reservation holders in multiple territories as possible. On the other hand, once Tesla reaches the 200,000 unit mark overall as a manufacturer of U.S. based EVs, they only have a certain number of quarters left for the Federal EV Tax Credit to be awarded at 100% before a phaseout begins. They'll have a decision to make. If they cross 200,000 units in the U.S. early in Q1 2018, then European Customers may have to wait until late Q2 or early Q3 to begin seeing Deliveries in bulk. If they aim instead for the 200,000th qualifying vehicle to reach a U.S. Customer in early Q2, then Europeans will start getting their cars in early 2018, and then in spurts for the rest of the year, as Tesla concentrates on U.S. distribution to maximize the number of buyers who could use the 100% incentive through the end of September 2018.

So, I think Tesla Model ☰ will definitely crack the top 40, or top 30 passenger cars, and the top 50 vehicles overall in the U.S. during 2017. I believe they will be in the top 20-to-25 by the end of April 2018. And by mid-July 2018 they may have reached the top 15-to-20 in U.S. sales. Essentially, that means that the Model ☰ will not only outsell the Chevrolet BOLT during 2017, but it will also outsell the BMW 3-Series (especially if their year was as bad in 2017 as in 2016). But no, the Model ☰ will definitely not reach Camry, Accord, Malibu, Altima, Sonata, or Optima levels of sales in 2018. But it will definitely achieve better than Passat numbers in the U.S., and be well placed to crack the top 12, possibly top 8, in 2019 among passenger cars. Should Tesla manage to sell 350,000 to 450,000 units per year in the U.S. at any point prior to 2020, it is absolutely over for the ICE age.
 

Michael Russo

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#6
Ah. I was thinking in terms of cumulative sales YTD. A particular month? Maybe. But not December 2017. I think they'll reserve that for January 2018.
Of course, it always depends how well other models are selling... :p
 

GDinATL

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#7
Ah. I was thinking in terms of cumulative sales YTD. A particular month? Maybe. But not December 2017. I think they'll reserve that for January 2018.
Right - December is a big selling month and Jan is typically slow. 1/18 may be the pick to crack the top 20 (in a month). I would expect Tesla will not be shipping internationally that heavy yet either then. It also will depend on how they are manipulating the US tax credit.....
 

Daliman

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#9
Thanks for the article. If all goes perfectly top 20 per week by the end of 2017. Top 10 perhaps mid 2018 when the curve passes 7500 per week. While Tesla has to deliver vastly more to get there what will happen to ICE sales when they do? When there are 250,000 of us giving rides to everyone in sight will the tide turn to EV'S?
 

MelindaV

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#12
much of the media feels like being cornered by the slightly crazy old aunt on Thanksgiving that talks endlessly, including repeating whatever someone else just said, as if it was new information.
 

Twiglett

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#13
much of the media feels like being cornered by the slightly crazy old aunt on Thanksgiving that talks endlessly, including repeating whatever someone else just said, as if it was new information.
i know what you mean. I saw one headline that proclaimed "Apple Eve Concept" - turned out to be a drawing (sorry, rendering) of something an unknown designer thought Apple might do, you know, if there were still doing a car.
Desperate for clicks rather than real news.
 

Michael Russo

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#14