What Surprises Can We Expect From Tesla in 2018?

patrick0101

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#1
Tesla is always full of surprises. Roller-skate diners, flamethrowers...
What do you think we'll see in 2018?
  • Ramping Model 3 production to 5,000 per week
  • Standard range Model 3 deliveries
  • Dual motor Model 3
  • Announcing locations and perhaps even breaking ground on one or two new Gigafactory locations
  • Coast to coast autonomous drive
  • Solar roof tile deliveries
  • Megacharger location deployments
  • Sneak peaks of the Roadster 2020 and Semi as they start road testing
  • New Tesla mobile app with several new features
  • Tesla will be the first automaker to cross the 200,000th mark to start the phase-out of the US tax credit
Tesla: What to Expect in 2018
 

garsh

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#5
Don't forget the interior refresh of the Model S...
Definitely.
I’m guessing Model Y unveil but an otherwise quiet year with focus on getting through the Model 3 backlog.
I was thinking a bit about how Tesla is going to time the release of the Y.

Given the recent Semi and Roadster reveals, that would imply that those two vehicles will be released before the Y. But if the rest of Tesla management can continue to hit Elon over the head with the realism stick, then they should be able to push out an SUV based on the Model 3 chassis pretty quickly. And if Tesla really wants to ramp up production of vehicles, that's the one segment that they really should be aiming for.

So... I'm going to go out on a limb, and say that Tesla is going to change their tactic for revealing the Y. They don't really need to gauge interest like they did for the 3 - they know that there will be at least as much interest. And they don't want to reveal it two years ahead of time, because that will eat into Model 3 sales. I bet they wait to reveal it until they start putting RC candidates on the streets. So, I'm betting on a big change from the usual Tesla tactic of announcing things early.

Corollary - I'm going to say that Model Y deliveries occur before Roadster deliveries. :cool:
 

SoFlaModel3

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#6
Definitely.
I was thinking a bit about how Tesla is going to time the release of the Y.

Given the recent Semi and Roadster reveals, that would imply that those two vehicles will be released before the Y. But if the rest of Tesla management can continue to hit Elon over the head with the realism stick, then they should be able to push out an SUV based on the Model 3 chassis pretty quickly. And if Tesla really wants to ramp up production of vehicles, that's the one segment that they really should be aiming for.

So... I'm going to go out on a limb, and say that Tesla is going to change their tactic for revealing the Y. They don't really need to gauge interest like they did for the 3 - they know that there will be at least as much interest. And they don't want to reveal it two years ahead of time, because that will eat into Model 3 sales. I bet they wait to reveal it until they start putting RC candidates on the streets. So, I'm betting on a big change from the usual Tesla tactic of announcing things early.

Corollary - I'm going to say that Model Y deliveries occur before Roadster deliveries. :cool:
That’s a great take and I agree. No sense with the madness of a long wait for everyone. They’d shock the world if it was unveiled and then almost ready to ship shorty thereafter.
 

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#7
Here are the biggest bombs I think Tesla could drop or that could occur, though admittedly this may be more from an investor perspective than a fan of the products:

1. Tesla lets slip the approximate $/kWh cost of an at-scale gigafactory, and it's much lower than is generally expected
2. As a result of #1, people begin to understand that Model 3 and Y can be significant generators of cash AND profit
3. Tesla announces a multi-billion dollar friendly equity infusion at a 20%+ premium to stock price
4. There are notable issues with new BEVs from the incumbents, and a growing concensus that being able to make ICEs at scale is not the sine qua non of making a great BEV

As a result of being on such solid financial footing for the first time, Tesla moves beyond it's reputation as a cash-burning machine and begins to be regarded as a hugely valuable enterprise. Expansion plans are taken very seriously, and a second wave of incumbent automaker panic ensues—this time jeopardizing senior executive jobs.
 
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mt.west.ev

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#8
Not so much a prediction ...... more like a hope.

At such time as Tesla's federal tax credit expires, I suspect demand for the Tesla will get "soft." In addition, competition in the EV market will be increasing at about the same time and federal tax credits will still be available on other brands.

If would seem logical to me that Tesla will find themselves in a position that some form of "incentive" will need to be offered to keep buyer coming into the market and production up. A small model "gift" of the car will not not accomplish that goal.

Again .... these are my hopes:
Offer something other than black or white interior;
reduce the cost of exterior colors (other than black);
increase SR milage, or lower the cost of the LR;
provide limited milage of free supercharging ..........

My guess is, on a mass-market, these "incentives" could be offered at a reasonable additional cost to TMC, But., they would add a tremendous interest to prospective buyers. Personally, I never expected to receive the federal tax credit, but $9K for the LR battery (even if it is a good value for the money), is a tremendous price and will keep some people out of the market after the tax credit expires. Just an opinion.
 

SoFlaModel3

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#9
Not so much a prediction ...... more like a hope.

At such time as Tesla's federal tax credit expires, I suspect demand for the Tesla will get "soft." In addition, competition in the EV market will be increasing at about the same time and federal tax credits will still be available on other brands.

If would seem logical to me that Tesla will find themselves in a position that some form of "incentive" will need to be offered to keep buyer coming into the market and production up. A small model "gift" of the car will not not accomplish that goal.

Again .... these are my hopes:
Offer something other than black or white interior;
reduce the cost of exterior colors (other than black);
increase SR milage, or lower the cost of the LR;
provide limited milage of free supercharging ..........

My guess is, on a mass-market, these "incentives" could be offered at a reasonable additional cost to TMC, But., they would add a tremendous interest to prospective buyers. Personally, I never expected to receive the federal tax credit, but $9K for the LR battery (even if it is a good value for the money), is a tremendous price and will keep some people out of the market after the tax credit expires. Just an opinion.
I’m still in the camp that the car is compelling without the credit. Price wise it holds up to its primary competition which is BMW 3, Audi A4, and Mercedes C.

When those 3 cars go electric it will be interesting to see their pricing.

Also, the credit could be lost for everyone effective 1/1/19 so that’s something to keep an eye on.
 

KarenRei

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#12
Model 3:
End of Q1/early Q2: Peak rates of 2,5k/wk hit. But not average rates, due to line downtimes.
End of Q2/early Q3: Peak rates of 5k/wk hit, but again, not averages
End of Q3/early Q4: Line 2 starts making its first vehicles. Line 1 has overwhelmingly stabilized at 5k/wk
End of Q4/early Q1: Line 2 stabilizes at around 5k/wk.
Total production: ~200-230k
All major variants introduced at some point this year with the possible exception of overseas variants (e.g. EU-spec)
Most of the major non-autopilot software wishlist has been taken care of - TACC adjustment on the steering wheel, more functionality for the right steering wheel control in general, etc - done. But lots of minor ones remain. The new nav system deploys to all Teslas in Q2.

Model Y: Unveiled at some point in Q3, with a surprisingly quick production timeframe planned. Also unveiled: plans for a major expansion of the supercharging network. Probably at least one other unrelated product or feature announcement at the unveiling.

Semi: You'll be seeing a lot of them on the Sparks/Fremont route ;) Production line progress will be very limited this year, as their initial orders are just trial orders, and thus comparably small; automation will only be used in the start for labour-intensive components. They need to ramp in 2019-2020 to transition trial orders to major fleet buys.

Model S / Model X: I believe a refresh is already in progress using a stretched Model 3 platform, although it won't be unveiled until the last minute in order to not cannibalize sales from current sales, probably not until perhaps Q1 2019. I used to not think they would do this, but recent evidence - a lack of desire to increase orders on 18650s, and the hacked power specs on the battery showing that a stretched version should be more than capable of ludicrous mode - have changed my opinion. Model 3's handling and the new motors' performance without throttling should make the refresh amazing and lead to an order surge.

Also, Tesla has hinted about new options and features for Model S and X to be unveiled this year. So, most probably Q3-Q4 for those.

Autopilot: I'm a doubter about FSD in general, but I expect major improvements in AP quality this year, including the fabled onramp to offramp functionality.

Energy: Massive year-over-year expansion in commercial orders. Continued strong growth in residential orders. Tesla will struggle to keep up with both.

Solar: The new solar roof products continue to be deployed, increasingly to customers, but continue to be very much production limited. Orders will surge, creating a huge backlog.

Megachargers: First demo megacharger station unveiled in Q3/Q4.

Roadster: More sightings. More test drives for the lucky few. A number of teasers. But no really big "news".

Pickup: I want to believe that we'll hear something significant about it later this year, but I really don't know.

Big surprises: At least one. Come on, we know by now to expect the unexpected :)
 
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ng0

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#14
I’m guessing Model Y unveil but an otherwise quiet year with focus on getting through the Model 3 backlog.
I agree with this. Also I'm doubtful, but I'm hoping Tesla will announce some crazy breakthrough in battery technology. It seems like the roadster will need this to fulfill the promises/expectations.