VIN progression, registration algorithm & other VIN-related exchanges

sreams

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#41
Won't challenge you outright because your source might be correct but consider that the delivery shown at VIN454 implies that the production may be around 400~500/wk currently, if 976 is a VIN.

That's still ways off of 5,000/wk goal in December but if the vehicle is on the production line, its reasonable to think that it takes at least a week to 10 days to go from the line to delivery.

I guess we'll all get the quarterly update on the vehicle delivery over the weekend or early next week for the quarter just ending. They probably won't breakout how many 3s were delivered but some color might come through the week, as analysis's will be pressing for how the production is going along.
They may very well talk about production rate. If it takes a couple of weeks to get a car into a customer's hands, deliveries won't tell the whole story. The better sounding number will be the rate at which they are currently completing cars. By the time of the earnings call, that number may be as high as 500/wk.
 

Model34mePlease

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#42
They may very well talk about production rate. If it takes a couple of weeks to get a car into a customer's hands, deliveries won't tell the whole story. The better sounding number will be the rate at which they are currently completing cars. By the time of the earnings call, that number may be as high as 500/wk.
Could be, but with 454 being delivered in Fremont now, I suspect they are more like at 100 per week.:oops::(
 

sreams

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#43
Could be, but with 454 being delivered in Fremont now, I suspect they are more like at 100 per week.:oops::(
But, aren't you basing that on what has been delivered instead of what has been produced? Cars delivered now were probably completed 2-3 weeks ago. Earlier this morning, photos of #321 were taken in Fremont. Just hours later, #454 shows up. Both of these cars may very well have been completed in the first week of September. We know that #259 was completed on August 23rd. Sounds like quite a ramp up, and who knows how much the rate has increased in the past two weeks...
 

Kizzy

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#44
I just looked this info up to get a guesstimate of how long it would be until Tesla had test drive vehicles for the M3. The Model X started deliveries 9/29/15 and started offering test drives +/- 7/5/16. There's a lot more demand for the M3, but the production ramp up should go faster and smoother. I'm just not sure if that would push test drives further out, or make them sooner...
I think that sounds like a plausible timeline for Model 3.
 

sreams

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#45
Thought you might all enjoy this... I took all the VINs from this thread and put them into Excel based on date. This is a scatter plot showing a pretty clear ramp up curve.

I think #200 on Sept 1st is an odd duck, because the photo looks like it was taken well before delivery (still plastic wrapped). The rest of the photos were either taken at delivery or out in public. I also added #30 for July 28th, since we know there were 30 production vehicles delivered at the reveal event.

Keep in mind that in terms of production, you can probably push the whole curve back a couple of weeks, since it seems to take about that long between production and delivery. #454 was delivered on September 28th, but was likely produced a couple of weeks earlier. #200, on the other hand, may have come off the production line on September 1st... which puts Tesla ahead of schedule at least at that point in time.

 
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#46
Thought you might all enjoy this... I took all the VINs from this thread and put them into Excel based on date. This is a scatter plot showing a pretty clear ramp up curve.

I think #200 on Sept 1st is an odd duck, because the photo looks like it was taken well before delivery (still plastic wrapped). The rest of the photos were either taken at delivery or out in public. I also added #30 for July 28th, since we know there were 30 production vehicles delivered at the reveal event.

Keep in mind that in terms of production, you can probably push the whole curve back a couple of weeks, since it seems to take about that long between production and delivery. #454 was delivered on September 28th, but was likely produced a couple of weeks earlier. #200, on the other hand, may have come off the production line on September 1st... which puts Tesla ahead of schedule at least at that point in time.

Looks like the start of an S curve to me..
 

danzgator

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#47
Tesla won't put 3s in dealers until they feel the need to stop anti-selling the 3 against the S & X. If the see a big decrease in backlog of orders or if they think that folks are postponing committing to purchase to see the 3 in person or get a test drive, the 3s will magically appear. But not until then.
Possibly, but average Joe blow is used to having a test drive. Once they get to average Joe blow in line, Tesla could start losing a lot of reservations due to Joe blow not being able to touch and feel the car. Enthusiast are willing to shell out $35-60k sight unseen, but aver Joe blow is not. Would you buy a Toyota, BMW, or Ford without test driving it? I sure wouldn't.
 

danzgator

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#48
They may very well talk about production rate. If it takes a couple of weeks to get a car into a customer's hands, deliveries won't tell the whole story. The better sounding number will be the rate at which they are currently completing cars. By the time of the earnings call, that number may be as high as 500/wk.
I doubt Tesla will release production rates in the next week. They'll put out a concise report on production and deliveries +/- 10/2. The full quarterly financial report won't come out until +/-11/3. Production may be discussed in that report. Below is a typical Tesla production and delivery report that goes out a couple days after quarter end.

upload_2017-9-29_8-56-34-png.3586
 

Brokedoc

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#49
Possibly, but average Joe blow is used to having a test drive. Once they get to average Joe blow in line, Tesla could start losing a lot of reservations due to Joe blow not being able to touch and feel the car. Enthusiast are willing to shell out $35-60k sight unseen, but aver Joe blow is not. Would you buy a Toyota, BMW, or Ford without test driving it? I sure wouldn't.
Early adopters and enthusiasts are willing to take a large leap of faith based on a company's past products and the promises and specs of what will be delivered. We see this especially with Apple and now with Tesla. Yes, many people still want a first hand experience before making such a large commitment and that is a very safe, smart choice. Even if you get an early invite to configure, you can delay until you get your test drive next year (or sooner if you know someone who gets theirs earlier) and you would still get your car earlier than those putting in their orders now.
 

SoFlaModel3

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#50
Early adopters and enthusiasts are willing to take a large leap of faith based on a company's past products and the promises and specs of what will be delivered. We see this especially with Apple and now with Tesla. Yes, many people still want a first hand experience before making such a large commitment and that is a very safe, smart choice. Even if you get an early invite to configure, you can delay until you get your test drive next year (or sooner if you know someone who gets theirs earlier) and you would still get your car earlier than those putting in their orders now.
That is very well said. With hundreds of thousands throwing down $1,000 a good 19-24 (if not more) months before the car can be delivered there will be a large contingent that proceed sight unseen (and you can consider me one of those). It's a leap of faith, but a calculated one with everything I have seen and experienced with Model S personally and Model X from a distance.
 

MelindaV

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#51
Possibly, but average Joe blow is used to having a test drive. Once they get to average Joe blow in line, Tesla could start losing a lot of reservations due to Joe blow not being able to touch and feel the car. Enthusiast are willing to shell out $35-60k sight unseen, but aver Joe blow is not. Would you buy a Toyota, BMW, or Ford without test driving it? I sure wouldn't.
your average joe blow can wait for his test drive and get in line after those of us that are ok confirming an order sight unseen.
 

Rick59

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#52
It's not just the "drive" part of the test drive that's important to me. It's ease of access/exit and seating comfort. I'm a full-size guy with a very bad back (four fused discs and spinal arthritis) so those issues require a pre-buy test. Otherwise, I have to rob another bank ;) and get an X.
 

danzgator

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#53
your average joe blow can wait for his test drive and get in line after those of us that are ok confirming an order sight unseen.
They could or they could cancel. We have no idea which will happen, probably some of both.
 

Brokedoc

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#54
They could or they could cancel. We have no idea which will happen, probably some of both.
A lot of people would call most of us M3OC members "fools" for getting so excited about spending so much on a car that we haven't even touched. They can also argue that the car doesn't even have all of the promised features active yet and the reliability isn't proven. My father taught me when I was young to NEVER BUY A CAR THE FIRST YEAR IT IS RELEASED OR REDESIGNED so they can work the bugs out.

Now, he wants me to drive him everywhere in my Tesla and can't wait to see the new ones...
 

Rusty

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#56
Possibly, but average Joe blow is used to having a test drive. Once they get to average Joe blow in line, Tesla could start losing a lot of reservations due to Joe blow not being able to touch and feel the car. Enthusiast are willing to shell out $35-60k sight unseen, but aver Joe blow is not. Would you buy a Toyota, BMW, or Ford without test driving it? I sure wouldn't.
I agree with you for some people who may or may not buy, but I feel there is a large percentage that will buy based on reputation, seeing someone else's car or based on reviews. I don't test the new I-phone before buying. Things are changing...the internet has increased buy without touching and testing.
 

slicedbread

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#57
I agree with you for some people who may or may not buy, but I feel there is a large percentage that will buy based on reputation, seeing someone else's car or based on reviews. I don't test the new I-phone before buying. Things are changing...the internet has increased buy without touching and testing.
I'm hoping for no test drives. my wife called dibs on m3 being her Commuter. If she doesn't like the car, I can switch with her and she'll drive my car while I drive m3 :)