VIN progression, registration algorithm & other VIN-related exchanges

Bokonon

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#21
I am a little concerned about the S curve actually. Elon has tweeted a target of 1500 by the end of Q3. That's next week. As of today, it appears as if we just cracked over 250.
Cue the obligatory Q3 conference call remark: "At the end of the quarter, there were approximately 1100 Model 3s still in-transit to their owners or pending final paperwork, hence we are not counting these cars as 'delivered' for Q3, though we do count them as 'produced'. As a result, Model 3 production ramp remains in-line with our previously-stated targets for end of Q3."
 
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JWardell

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#22
I don't think there has been any production ramp till we see at least 500. The hand assembly line would be well past 250 now. I know they were starting to switch over a week or so ago, but maybe it takes a while before the automated line is ready to assemble.
Only 14 weeks left in the year, and a whole lot of cars to make before then.
 

NoVADrew

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#23
I am a little concerned about the S curve actually. Elon has tweeted a target of 1500 by the end of Q3. That's next week. As of today, it appears as if we just cracked over 250.
While I do think Tesla is a few weeks behind on the S curve, remember that they generally have 2-4k cars in transit at the end of every quarter when they give out guidance. If they made most of their 1,500 target at the end of September, its doubtful that more than a few hundred would have been delivered anyway.
 

Sandy

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#24
I am a little concerned about the S curve actually. Elon has tweeted a target of 1500 by the end of Q3. That's next week. As of today, it appears as if we just cracked over 250.
True but that delivery was in Austin, Texas. The car had to be built, validated, shipped to Austin and prepared for delivery. Say it was built a week or ten days prior to delivery. That's a lot of new car building time.
 

MelindaV

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#25
True but that delivery was in Austin, Texas. The car had to be built, validated, shipped to Austin and prepared for delivery. Say it was built a week or ten days prior to delivery. That's a lot of new car building time.
I believe @RiggerJon mentioned a week or so back it was sitting done in Fremont waiting to be shipped, so there were a number of down days prior to it getting on a truck as well
 

Sandy

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#26
I believe @RiggerJon mentioned a week or so back it was sitting done in Fremont waiting to be shipped, so there were a number of down days prior to it getting on a truck as well
Great. Just more validation that the ramp is healthy. There is 'ongoing discussion' ;) on another forum about the lack of higher VIN's............
 

Kbm3

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#27
I am a little concerned about the S curve actually. Elon has tweeted a target of 1500 by the end of Q3. That's next week. As of today, it appears as if we just cracked over 250.
Elon nearly always talks about production rate. My guess is that they are hoping to reach a rate of 1500 / mo. before end of Sept. Not 1500 deliveries in September.
 
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#28

Frank99

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#29
>>> are harvesting and misusing data from here regarding VIN numbers

Let'em. Tomorrow's, or next week's, stock price has absolutely zero bearing on Tesla's financial health, and anyone who'd make an investment decision based on SA deserves to lose their shorts (see what I did there?) when the ramp occurs and Model 3's start becoming ubiquitous on the streets. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if Tesla was playing games to drive even more hurt into the shorts than they have already.
 

GTV6

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#30
>>> are harvesting and misusing data from here regarding VIN numbers

Let'em. Tomorrow's, or next week's, stock price has absolutely zero bearing on Tesla's financial health, and anyone who'd make an investment decision based on SA deserves to lose their shorts (see what I did there?) when the ramp occurs and Model 3's start becoming ubiquitous on the streets. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if Tesla was playing games to drive even more hurt into the shorts than they have already.
I agree with the gist of your comment but stock price does have a bearing on future capital raises.
 

GTV6

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#32
I agree with you, although I wasn't really expecting Tesla to go through another capital raise any time in the near future...
Agreed. But the shorts are clear that a disaster in the supply chain could disrupt the launch enough to drain their cash. On that, they could easily be correct. In the end, I believe someone else in Silicone Valley will step in and shore up the company if necessary.
 

UncleT

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#33
I believe the RCs have an A for the fifth digit which denotes a 4 door hatchback, which of course it is not (unfortunately ;)).

I think some of the confusion comes from VINs in the 300s with an E for the fifth digit (denoting a 4 door sedan) but have manufacturer plates. I believe these are some of the 50 initially built vehicles that are being used for validation testing. A couple of these were spotted in public before the delivery event.
 
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#34
I'm not sure if this makes a difference but I seem to recall that the RCs had an "X" in the check digit position and the production vehicles seem to have a number in this position (9th position of VIN)
To elaborate on what Model34mePlease said, digit 9 by rule is just the result of doing some math with all the other digits. It has absolutely no relationship to any feature or characteristic of the car. The reason for this is that computers can verify a valid VIN more easily by calculating the check digit and ensuring that it matches the one provided. You can see the exact calculation used here: https://en.wikibooks.org/wiki/Vehicle_Identification_Numbers_(VIN_codes)/Check_digit
 

Brokedoc

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#35
So my X theory is blown and the A digit in the 5th place is also blown since I saw several RCs with E in that spot.

I seem to remember that Tesla made about 50 RCs and likely assigned the 300~350 to those and will now use up the rest of the 300 range on standard production vehicles. They can't re-use VIN numbers.
 

danzgator

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#36
So my X theory is blown and the A digit in the 5th place is also blown since I saw several RCs with E in that spot.

I seem to remember that Tesla made about 50 RCs and likely assigned the 300~350 to those and will now use up the rest of the 300 range on standard production vehicles. They can't re-use VIN numbers.
Maybe, but there are a lot of other digits in the VIN other than the last 3. As long as any one of the other digits is different, it's an unused VIN.
 

UncleT

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#37
... the A digit in the 5th place is also blown since I saw several RCs with E in that spot.
I believe these were misidentified as RCs because they were seen before the delivery event. If the entire suspected VIN is entered into a VIN verification system it will show if it is a valid VIN or not.

These VINs were thought to be RCs but using the CARFAX VIN decoder shows they are valid VINs.

upload_2017-9-28_12-43-58-png.3546


upload_2017-9-28_12-44-31-png.3547


upload_2017-9-28_12-44-59-png.3548


This is the result of an early RC VIN.

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