VIN Numbers A Moot Point?

Dan Detweiler

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#1
So here's a thought.

I can't help but go back to the Elon quote of "Tesla will do the right thing" when it comes to the federal tax credit. Let's just say hypothetically that Tesla limits release of Model 3 so that they are just shy of the 200,000 mark on January 1st. They use the time from now until then to sort through UI issues, chip issues, production issues, etc. They stockpile thousands of cars in the mean time. On January 1 there is a mass release of these cars to their owners. 10s of thousands of them.

They now insure that everyone taking delivery all the way to June 31st gets the full tax credit. They are in full scale ramp now from day 1 on the first quarter of the 2018 production year. Hundreds of thousands of people now qualify for the full credit that wouldn't have if they had pushed delivery early on and reached 200,000 cars in the 4th quarter of this year. Most of the kinks are worked out. They have a head start on dual motor and performance versions since they were not as hard pressed to release the max cars they could this year. Everyone wins (except maybe those early reservationists that might have gotten their cars a month or two sooner had they pushed production).

Crazy?

Dan
 

SoFlaModel3

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#2
I believe Tesla will “do the right thing” can take on numerous meanings.

For instance the fact that they’re putting themselves through production hell to produce as many cars as possible as quickly as possible could already be viewed as doing the right thing.

My $0.02 is that they’ll be incredibly close to 200,000 cars sold as the year comes to an end and assuming that they’ll probably hold back on deliveries until first week in January if that’s the case.

In fact if they’re slightly behind schedule it’s very likely that it literally meets up right at end of year and they’ll probably have a lot of cars produced that are in transit and I delivered and it simply naturally happens that they cross the link in January.

We should find out where they stand through Q3 in the next 1-2 weeks though!
 
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Model34mePlease

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#3
Remember also that Tesla wants more model 3s in owners' hands sooner in order to get more testing of the car done. Not only bug reports from owners, but also feedback being received by Tesla all the time from onboard telemetry. If there are early-adopter issues (and there certainly will be) they need that feedback as soon as possible. The last thing they want is a flood of 10,000 cars rapidly distributed before as many as possible of those issues have been worked out. Stockpiling vehicles works directly against this tactic.
 

Dan Detweiler

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#4
Remember also that Tesla wants more model 3s in owners' hands sooner in order to get more testing of the car done. Not only bug reports from owners, but also feedback being received by Tesla all the time from onboard telemetry. If there are early-adopter issues (and there certainly will be) they need that feedback as soon as possible. The last thing they want is a flood of 10,000 cars rapidly distributed before as many as possible of those issues have been worked out. Stockpiling vehicles works directly against this tactic.
Yup, and they'll have those "test cars", about 2000+ of them in employee hands well before the first of the year. Plenty of info to fix, tweek and improve in time to get the public deliveries ready by Jan 1.

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SoFlaModel3

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Yup, and they'll have those "test cars", about 2000+ of them in employee hands well before the first of the year. Plenty of info to fix, tweek and improve in time to get the public deliveries ready by Jan 1.

Dan
Barring major issue, I really don’t see customer cars slipping past November (we’ve heard existing owners should begin in late October).

There is no reason to stock pile cars. Only reason to stall a bit and not cross 200,000 before end of year if that’s their goal.

The stock pile might not be that large. If Model S/X trends continue and they produce ~50k Model 3 then they’ll be very close to the goal.
 

Prodigal Son

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#6
So here's a thought.

I can't help but go back to the Elon quote of "Tesla will do the right thing" when it comes to the federal tax credit. Let's just say hypothetically that Tesla limits release of Model 3 so that they are just shy of the 200,000 mark on January 1st. They use the time from now until then to sort through UI issues, chip issues, production issues, etc. They stockpile thousands of cars in the mean time. On January 1 there is a mass release of these cars to their owners. 10s of thousands of them.

They now insure that everyone taking delivery all the way to June 31st gets the full tax credit. They are in full scale ramp now from day 1 on the first quarter of the 2018 production year. Hundreds of thousands of people now qualify for the full credit that wouldn't have if they had pushed delivery early on and reached 200,000 cars in the 4th quarter of this year. Most of the kinks are worked out. They have a head start on dual motor and performance versions since they were not as hard pressed to release the max cars they could this year. Everyone wins (except maybe those early reservationists that might have gotten their cars a month or two sooner had they pushed production).

Crazy?

Dan
This would infuriate me. If I could have taken delivery in 2017 and they intentionally held it back, that makes my 2017 taxes involve writing a much larger check to the IRS. If they just can't built it in time, fine, but don't screw me just for PR.
 

Stolz25

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#7
This would infuriate me. If I could have taken delivery in 2017 and they intentionally held it back, that makes my 2017 taxes involve writing a much larger check to the IRS. If they just can't built it in time, fine, but don't screw me just for PR.
It’s not for PR. You don’t want to delay getting your tax refund for a year, but sending them out means thousands of people are simply out the refund at all.

I know this is the internet and all, but viewing this as “screwing you” is pretty self centered even given the medium.
 

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#8
It’s not for PR. You don’t want to delay getting your tax refund for a year, but sending them out means thousands of people are simply out the refund at all.

I know this is the internet and all, but viewing this as “screwing you” is pretty self centered even given the medium.
Of course it's self centered but at least I'm being honest about it. I don't care if anyone else gets the tax credit. I'd still buy the car without it, too. But since I will be getting it, and I *might* take delivery in 2017, I'd be annoyed to find that I was forced to take delivery later to help others.
 

Dan Detweiler

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#10
Sooo...upwards of a hundred thousand people or more save $3500 each and the only downside is that as few as maybe 1000 people take delivery a month or two later (at no fiscal loss to them) and this is a bad thing?

Dan
 

Prodigal Son

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#11
Sooo...upwards of a hundred thousand people or more save $3500 each and the only downside is that as few as maybe 1000 people take delivery a month or two later (at no fiscal loss to them) and this is a bad thing?

Dan
Having to take $7500 out of the market and give it to the government for a year is absolutely a fiscal loss, because that money isn't making me any money when they have it. Even at a fairly conservative 8% annual return that is $600 coming out of my pocket, and much more when you consider the returns made on that $600 over time.

Yes, I can conceptually adjust my withholding to screw around and try and get it back sooner but that just reduces the damage.
 

SoFlaModel3

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#13
Of course it's self centered but at least I'm being honest about it. I don't care if anyone else gets the tax credit. I'd still buy the car without it, too. But since I will be getting it, and I *might* take delivery in 2017, I'd be annoyed to find that I was forced to take delivery later to help others.
The mission here is to accelerate the move to sustainable transport. If the car gets to us first week in January let’s still be happy we achieve a $7,500 tax credit and let’s be really happy that more people buy the car because more people can earn the credit down the road (into 2019).

Remember, you can adjust your withholdings and collect the $7,500 evenly throughout your paychecks in 2018. A minor inconvenience when you (like me) do not need the credit to go through with the sale.
 

Dan Detweiler

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#14
Having to take $7500 out of the market and give it to the government for a year is absolutely a fiscal loss, because that money isn't making me any money when they have it. Even at a fairly conservative 8% annual return that is $600 coming out of my pocket, and much more when you consider the returns made on that $600 over time.

Yes, I can conceptually adjust my withholding to screw around and try and get it back sooner but that just reduces the damage.
Vote Libertarian and support The Fair Tax then! LOL!

Sorry, I went political there for a second.

We'll just agree to disagree on this one. Have a great day.

Dan
 

Prodigal Son

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#15
The mission here is to accelerate the move to sustainable transport. If the car gets to us first week in January let’s still be happy we achieve a $7,500 tax credit and let’s be really happy that more people buy the car because more people can earn the credit down the road (into 2019).

Remember, you can adjust your withholdings and collect the $7,500 evenly throughout your paychecks in 2018. A minor inconvenience when you (like me) do not need the credit to go through with the sale.
When you bring up their mission statement it does make perfect sense. I take it all back (honestly. It still annoys me a little but if they're staying true to their beliefs and that's a step in doing it, it's not my place to talk smack).
 

SoFlaModel3

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#16
When you bring up their mission statement it does make perfect sense. I take it all back (honestly. It still annoys me a little but if they're staying true to their beliefs and that's a step in doing it, it's not my place to talk smack).
Hey it’s ok to be upset about it — believe me I have horrible patience and I’m not sure how I’ve made it 18 months without going insane so these last few will feel like forever, but I worry less about myself and more about the person in 2019 not sure about EVs and Tesla can still sell a car with at least an $1,875 credit. Of course I’m hopeful more compelling EVs will exist as well!
 

JWardell

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#17
Barring major issue, I really don’t see customer cars slipping past November (we’ve heard existing owners should begin in late October).

There is no reason to stock pile cars. Only reason to stall a bit and not cross 200,000 before end of year if that’s their goal.

The stock pile might not be that large. If Model S/X trends continue and they produce ~50k Model 3 then they’ll be very close to the goal.

Right now there IS a reason to stockpile cars in that the software is not complete and features are missing. It's only acceptable to deliver cars with that software to employees, not the public or especially car reviewers. But that should not be a reason to hold back manufacturing the hardware.
So keep producing cars, stock pile until the software is at a point where it is minimally acceptable for the public, no glaring missing features, and that point update the stockpiled cars and open the flood gates on deliveries.
 

Dan Detweiler

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#18
Right now there IS a reason to stockpile cars in that the software is not complete and features are missing. It's only acceptable to deliver cars with that software to employees, not the public or especially car reviewers. But that should not be a reason to hold back manufacturing the hardware.
So keep producing cars, stock pile until the software is at a point where it is minimally acceptable for the public, no glaring missing features, and that point update the stockpiled cars and open the flood gates on deliveries.
This is exactly what I was thinking.

Dan
 

Model34mePlease

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#19
Right now there IS a reason to stockpile cars in that the software is not complete and features are missing. It's only acceptable to deliver cars with that software to employees, not the public or especially car reviewers. But that should not be a reason to hold back manufacturing the hardware.
So keep producing cars, stock pile until the software is at a point where it is minimally acceptable for the public, no glaring missing features, and that point update the stockpiled cars and open the flood gates on deliveries.
Give me the car now and I'll sign a FriendDA.:D
 

Prodigal Son

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#20
Right now there IS a reason to stockpile cars in that the software is not complete and features are missing. It's only acceptable to deliver cars with that software to employees, not the public or especially car reviewers. But that should not be a reason to hold back manufacturing the hardware.
So keep producing cars, stock pile until the software is at a point where it is minimally acceptable for the public, no glaring missing features, and that point update the stockpiled cars and open the flood gates on deliveries.
So much for that theory, given the production numbers.