Unofficial Reservation Stats thru 4/18: 23% Total Cancels

Brokedoc

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#1
Fred of Electrek had a write up of a report from Second Measure that does analysis of credit card transactions (a nice way to measure deposits and refunds) They found some very interesting numbers. https://electrek.co/2018/06/04/tesl...efunded-report/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

Unsurprisingly, people have cancelled their reservations since the reveal on 3/31/16. Some who couldn’t wait, some who don’t want to be “beta testers” and some who want to drive the car before making such a large purchase. Second Measure has calculated a total cancellation rate of 23% but what surprises me is that the cancellation rate as of 8/17 was already at 12% so it doesn’t appear that the cancellation rate velocity has increased too much since then. They also have interesting stats I haven’t seen before like 61% of total reservations were made in the first month.

I’m sure number crunchers like @Troy can use this data creatively.

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Troy

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#3
I saw that chart when it was posted on Reddit. See my response here.

Edit: Let me copy that here:

Here is how I would have created the same chart:



I used photoshop to change it. I checked the data and it looks correct. They are close to 20% cancellation rate at the end of Q1 2018. I'm calculating 17.8%.
Here is my table based on data I collected from conference calls, shareholder letters, and tweets.

However, they are presenting it in a negative way by saying things like 23% have taken refunds and 8% have purchased. That's misleading. 8% were able to purchase. The rest are eagerly waiting their turn.

The general trend is upward. New reservations are higher than cancellations. Temporarily we see a high cancellation rate because the standard range was delayed but there will be new SR buyers once Tesla starts making the SR somewhere between November 2018 and February 2019 based on my estimate.

The important thing here is that even without any advertisement people still keep reserving the Model 3 and Tesla has more net reservations now than they had gross reservations in mid-2016.
 
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Brokedoc

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#4
Any stats of those who canceled on how many bought a model S or X instead?
Second Measure is an industry analyst and they make money on selling reports and charts. That being said, if they can see anonymous credit card charge data and they can cull $1000 deposits and refunds from Tesla to account for Model 3 reservations, they can also likely see $2500 deposits for Model S/X reservation (or in this case a $1500 deposit after a $1000 reservation) which should have indicated the switch from Model 3 to S/X. But you would have to be a client of Second Measure to see that data.

I saw that chart when it was posted on Reddit. See my response here.
I wish my workplace firewall would allow me to visit your posts on Reddit. It's exciting to know that Second Measure has this credit card data. Presumably, they also know the exact distribution of international orders also.
 

malogus

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#5
Does this take account other methods of refund too? My deposits were done on a credit card transaction, but my refund was done via wire to my bank account. I believe they had 3 different options for refund, and I picked the easiest (as most people would). I had my money in 24 hours, but many refunds may not be counted if they are only looking at CC transactions.
 

Brokedoc

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#6
Does this take account other methods of refund too? My deposits were done on a credit card transaction, but my refund was done via wire to my bank account. I believe they had 3 different options for refund, and I picked the easiest (as most people would). I had my money in 24 hours, but many refunds may not be counted if they are only looking at CC transactions.
Good point. Without being customers, we don't have access to their report so we can't be sure of their methodology.
 

Bobby Mc

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#7
Does this take account other methods of refund too? My deposits were done on a credit card transaction, but my refund was done via wire to my bank account. I believe they had 3 different options for refund, and I picked the easiest (as most people would). I had my money in 24 hours, but many refunds may not be counted if they are only looking at CC transactions.
When did you request refund? I am seeing several on twitter claiming to be waiting for months?