Trying to find the sweet spot...what's my production # going to be in Nov-Jan delivery window

eye.surgeon

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#1
Current S85 owner VIN 63,xxx, delivered Dec 2014, one of the earliest autopilot cars. I purposefully waited until early production issues were resolved before ordering and have been rewarded with a very trouble-free 3 years, unlike many of the early adapters.

I'd like to do the same with my Model 3 order which currently has a delivery estimate of Nov-Jan. Any educated guesses as to what VINs will be around the end of January? If it's not over, say, 50k, I may defer ordering for a few months or possibly even up to a year. I don't want to be an early early adapter.
 

sclyde

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#2
Just personal opinion here, but I don't think it will be anywhere near 50k inside of those dates. Remember, they don't expect to reach 5k units per week until late Q1.
 

Mjp462

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#4
Current S85 owner VIN 63,xxx, delivered Dec 2014, one of the earliest autopilot cars. I purposefully waited until early production issues were resolved before ordering and have been rewarded with a very trouble-free 3 years, unlike many of the early adapters.

I'd like to do the same with my Model 3 order which currently has a delivery estimate of Nov-Jan. Any educated guesses as to what VINs will be around the end of January? If it's not over, say, 50k, I may defer ordering for a few months or possibly even up to a year. I don't want to be an early early adapter.
I hope you don't think you will have the option to take delivery in January. Because that is just not going to happen. It is not possible to know when they will be at car # 50k, but it is safe to say it will be many, many months away. Enjoy your Model S! Beautiful car!
 

3V Pilot

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#7
Your best bet is to wait for the dual motor version. If you don't want that you can always delay your delivery by checking that option and then changing it later once the 50k number is passed. Now, I don't work for Tesla and there is a possibility that I might be wrong here. After all, I thought I was wrong once however I was mistaken.....LOL:)
 

Idur

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#10
I’m not saying you should get the dual motor, just use that selection to delay your order until enough cars are built. Then change your selection back and take delivery.
I thought the option selection didn't impact when you're invited to configure.
 

Troy

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#11
Hi. This article says at the end of October 2017, they were at 440 units. Tesla is aiming to reach 5,000 units per week at the end of Q1 2018. See the last paragraph on page 1 here. You could calculate numbers using that data but my best guess is, they will reach 5,000 units/week at the end of May 2018 instead of March 2018. Based on that, here are my estimates:

6,000 units at the end of January 2018
13,000 units at the end of February
23,000 units at the end of March
36,000 units at the end of April
52,000 units at the end of May
 

Michael Russo

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#13
Hi. This article says at the end of October 2017, they were at 440 units. Tesla is aiming to reach 5,000 units per week at the end of Q1 2018. See the last paragraph on page 1 here. You could calculate numbers using that data but my best guess is, they will reach 5,000 units/week at the end of May 2018 instead of March 2018. Based on that, here are my estimates:

6,000 units at the end of January 2018
13,000 units at the end of February
23,000 units at the end of March
36,000 units at the end of April
52,000 units at the end of May
Troy, of course it’s anybody’s guess, yet what makes you think they would not meet the end March target, itself a revision vs. the original end Dec.17 timing goal...?
 

Troy

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#14
Elon's estimates are usually a little optimistic. For example, somebody had asked him when Tesla will reach 25% gross margin on the Model 3 and Elon was more optimistic than the CFO. You can listen to it here after 35:15. At 39:45 Deepak says, "I was just going to be more cautious". This is from the previous conference call, not the last one and it's not directly related to production but it shows Elon's optimism.

Tesla is planning to have two Model 3 production lines with 5,000 units/week each. The idea is that they will solve the current production bottlenecks and ramp up to 5000/week. However, I think there might be other production bottlenecks they have not discovered yet. Once they get to, let's say, 3000/week, they might find out that something else they didn't foresee doesn't work as well as they thought.
 

NRG4All

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#16
Current S85 owner VIN 63,xxx, delivered Dec 2014, one of the earliest autopilot cars. I purposefully waited until early production issues were resolved before ordering and have been rewarded with a very trouble-free 3 years, unlike many of the early adapters.

I'd like to do the same with my Model 3 order which currently has a delivery estimate of Nov-Jan. Any educated guesses as to what VINs will be around the end of January? If it's not over, say, 50k, I may defer ordering for a few months or possibly even up to a year. I don't want to be an early early adapter.
This is a nit and forgive me, but I believe the term for those early buyers of the car would be called early "adopters" rather than adapters. Adopters indicates taking possession whereas adapters would mean that you will have to adapt to the car. The normal marketing phenomenon is: Innovators, Early Adopters, Early Majority, Late Majority, and finally Laggards. Although, in another sense, we all will adapt to the cars to a certain extent, its just not the curve that indicates adoption.
 

pjfw8

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#17
This is a nit and forgive me, but I believe the term for those early buyers of the car would be called early "adopters" rather than adapters. Adopters indicates taking possession whereas adapters would mean that you will have to adapt to the car. The normal marketing phenomenon is: Innovators, Early Adopters, Early Majority, Late Majority, and finally Laggards. Although, in another sense, we all will adapt to the cars to a certain extent, its just not the curve that indicates adoption.
Although early adopters have to learn to adapt to all kind of surprises! Adventurers?
 

3V Pilot

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#18
I thought the option selection didn't impact when you're invited to configure.
My understanding is that you are invited to configure 4-6 weeks before the car will be ready. If that is the case then someone who saved a "dual motor" preference would not see the email to configure at the same time as someone who saved a "first production". It's all just a guess at this point but I don't see why Tesla would have anyone configure a dual motor car months ahead of production.
 

SoFlaModel3

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#19
My understanding is that you are invited to configure 4-6 weeks before the car will be ready. If that is the case then someone who saved a "dual motor" preference would not see the email to configure at the same time as someone who saved a "first production". It's all just a guess at this point but I don't see why Tesla would have anyone configure a dual motor car months ahead of production.
That’s actually not correct. The “survey” has no bearing on your priority and thus will not impact your invite. That was simply a means for Tesla to try to get a sense for the order mix.
 

nameless

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#20
If your current delivery estimate is in Nov-Jan range, it means that you were in the first 10% among the reservations made in the period just before or after the unveil (you got a bump as a current Tesla owner), which means that your VIN, should you go for "First Production" as soon as it becomes available, would be at most #15,000 and possibly as low as #5,000.
To get a VIN above #50,000, you need to wait at least until Q2 '18.