True Cost of Ownership

minogully

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#1
If you haven't heard of this tool, you should check it out. It's a "True Cost to Own" estimator for almost any make and model. See here:

https://www.edmunds.com/tco.html

The problem is that Teslas aren't on the list.

I was wondering if with our collective knowledge we could determine best estimates for the Model 3.

I'd be really interested in going past 5 years though, since I'd like to factor in battery replacement, which wouldn't be necessary until after 8 at the very least (since it's covered under warranty before that).
 

MelindaV

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#2
couple things to consider:
  • Based on some of the high mileage testa's out there, it's unlikely a battery change will be done by most owners. If the original battery passes the warranty period, it likely will not have issues beyond. There is a very high chance the rest of the car will have failed prior to the battery. (and if shopping for an ICE vehicle, do you consider the engine replacement cost? The Edmunds link you provided only looked at the first 5 years and doubt they expected an engine replacement)
  • Brake work will be much less frequent than an ICE vehicle
  • Insurance should be similar to a similarly priced new car
  • Fuel/energy costs will depend on your local utility costs
  • Depreciation on the existing teslas are the best of electric cars and in line or better than other similarly priced vehicles
  • Body repairs outside of insurance coverage may be more than an ICE, depending on what Tesla uses for the body panels. There was talk the Model ☰ would be all steel, but the body panels on the March 2016 prototypes were aluminum.
For me, the difference in what I pay for fuel and my current car's MPG vs my electricity costs and using the Model S's range per kWh (which the Model ☰ should come in lower) , the savings would pay for the base $35k in 22 years and 2 ½ months.
that is calculated out as 1,000 tesla miles costing $26.80 vs my ICE's 1,000 miles costing $131.80 in fuel. Over a 15,000 mile year there is a savings of $1,575. it'd take the 22+ years for that savings to add up to $35k. And that is all assuming Fuel stays the price it is now, and doesn't spike back to where it was in 2009. Energy rates, at least where I am are pretty stable and don't foresee them changing much.
for me, no matter the Tesla service center annual maintenance costs, in the end the fuel savings hands down makes the Tesla the best ownership cost car I've had to this point.
 

MichelT3

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#3
@MelindaV it has since been revealed that the structure will be steel and the body panels in aluminium.
Further, for a good comparison, you need to put in the difference in total acquiring costs between a ICE and the Model 3 (including home charging infrastructure, taxes, subsidies and benefits). I expect the number of years in which the Model 3 will turn out to be cheaper will be much, much less.

22 years is a daunting period. I doubt whether many people will keep their Model 3 that long.
 

garsh

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#4
22 years is a daunting period. I doubt whether many people will keep their Model 3 that long.

That is a long time though. I will have only had my Leaf for 5-6 years before replacing it with the Model 3. But, I had my previous car for 13 years (175,000 miles) before that.

When I made my decision to buy the Leaf, I had calculated 4-5 years to be the "price break-even" time period compared to buying a brand new Honda Civic. Of course, gas was ~$3.50 when I made those calculations. :p
 

MichelT3

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#5
Ha! I take you up on that!
I own one car since 1991; 25+ years. But that's not a daily driver.
My current daily drive is from January 1988; 29 years now. However since then cars haven't changed fundamentally. And who knows what the transition speeded up by Tesla will lead to?

I'm 58 now. An automated drive car could transport me till my dying day. Which could be 30 years, judged by the age my family reaches. I expect there will be something better than a Model 3 by then.
 
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BigBri

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#6
Tesla seems to price their service pretty reasonably too. It's still not cheap even though they're not trying to turn a profit. Most of the stories I've heard (similar to the guy with the bricked Tesla) have been mostly inexpensive fixes. Well inexpensive by comparison.
 

minogully

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#7
Ok, here's a first draft... (EDIT: I updated the sharing settings so that it's editable by everyone)

 
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MelindaV

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#8
@minogully - how are you figuring the depreciation?
Here's some info on the Model S's value retention for the first 3 years (taken from the Tesla.com forum post here with data from NADA shown as a quote below)
year 1: 83% value
year 2: 71% value
year 3: 57% value

so based on a $35,000 purchase, year 1 would be $5,950, year 2 $4,200 and year 3 $4,900

EdwardG.NO2CO2 | April 20, 2016
You should look for a buyer because you should be able to come closer to this table privately.
EV retained values.......
Tesla retained value
Make...........Model.................1-Year Retention %
Tesla............Model S..............83%
Porsche.......Panamera S-E....78%
Toyota..........RAV4 EV.............71%
Honda..........Accord PHV........70%
Toyota..........Prius PHV...........69%
DATA SOURCE: NADA.
The top two-year results:
Make.............Model...............2-Year Retention %
Tesla.............Model S............71%
Toyota..........RAV4 EV............56%
Toyota..........Prius PHV..........54%
Ford.............Fusion Energi....46%
Ford.............C-Max Energi....42%
DATA SOURCE: NADA.
And the top three-year results:
Make..............Model................3-Year Retention %
Tesla..............Model S.............57%
Toyota...........RAV4 EV.............48%
Ford..............Focus Electric....32%
Chevrolet......Volt.....................31%
Nissan...........Leaf...................25%
DATA SOURCE: NADA.
This last table is particularly relevant. For context, the resale value guarantee assures that the value will be at least 50% of the vehicle base price, plus 43% of all options (including upgrading to a larger battery). Based on NADA's data, Tesla should have a cushion of about 7 percentage points after three years, on average.
The long and winding road
At the end of the day, all of the lease accounting and fuss about the related non-GAAP figures are much ado about nothing. They're simply byproducts of Musk reassuring customers that Tesla vehicles would hold value -- which they are.
 

MichelT3

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#9
When we get one of those first 400,000 Model 3 cars (which of course will be a huge success, attracting huge amounts of buyers after the launch), the demand will be huge. So big, that the price of our Model 3 won't go down, but UP. At least for a few years.
So we maybe should already reserve a second car, to buy a year later, when we sell our first with a profit???
Or is this too imaginative? :p:cool:

The risk is minimal, we can always cancel the second reservation...
 

minogully

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#10
@minogully - how are you figuring the depreciation?
I found a youtube video (admittedly not a great source) that compared the depreciation of the Model S vs various similarly priced luxury vehicles. It found that the Audi depreciated at a similar rate to the Model S. So, I grabbed the numbers off of Edmunds for an Audi A7 which is similarly priced to the Model 3.

I like your values better and I'll update the sheet to match.
 

Steve C

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#11
I found a youtube video (admittedly not a great source) that compared the depreciation of the Model S vs various similarly priced luxury vehicles. It found that the Audi depreciated at a similar rate to the Model S. So, I grabbed the numbers off of Edmunds for an Audi A7 which is similarly priced to the Model 3.

I like your values better and I'll update the sheet to match.
I haven't looked myself but I'm surprised an A7 is similarity priced. I assumed an A4 would have been a much closer match in price and size etc.
 

MelindaV

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#13
I found a youtube video (admittedly not a great source) that compared the depreciation of the Model S vs various similarly priced luxury vehicles. It found that the Audi depreciated at a similar rate to the Model S. So, I grabbed the numbers off of Edmunds for an Audi A7 which is similarly priced to the Model 3.

I like your values better and I'll update the sheet to match.
here's also a story from this last fall on the S holding value better than others in it's class
https://electrek.co/2016/09/13/tesl...ading-segment-losing-only-28-after-50k-miles/
 

minogully

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#16
Are the years as important as the miles?
One thing to add to the list is tires. Tire rotation and the cost of new tires.
In something like this, they always assume that the person is driving x amount of miles per year. Typically in the metric system it's 20,000km, and in the US I've seen 15,000 miles used. So, with that in mind, one could convert from years to miles pretty easily.
 

minogully

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#19
one can only hope that Wynne is not going to stand in the way of this one
Wynne is not standing in the way, in fact the Wynne government increased the rebate during their term to what it is right now. What you should worry about is when (if) the Liberals lose their control over the provincial government, then it could come crashing down (hopefully not). Also, what remains to be seen is whether or not the Wynne government will be able to uphold their promise of removing the HST off of the sales of EVs starting in 2018 (around $6000 in savings).
 
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#20
I just heard on another site that ontario will now give the maximum rebate regardless of vehicle price. In the past the rebate went down with more expensive vehicles. Now you would be able to get the Model S and X with full $14000 rebate.
Has anyone else heard the same?