Time to start buying TSLA? Or get out before the crash?

svusa11

Active Member
TOO Supporting Member
Joined
Oct 27, 2017
Messages
105
Location
New York
Tesla Owner
Reservation
Country
Country
#21
Looks like you're putting in buy limits at Fibonacci levels. Smart. Nobody can explain why technical trading works but it does.
well.. I'm betting more on what I'm seeing, people are desperate to get Model 3 despite of all negativity around it. How often something like this happens? that too in automobile industry?? As as a Tesla shareholder, That's my quick fundamental analysis :)
 

KarenRei

Top-Contributor
Joined
Jul 27, 2017
Messages
1,647
Location
Reykjavík
Country
Country
#22
If you think the stock is undervalued:
1) If you're psychic, wait until you forecast that the stock will hit it's lowest point, then buy.
2) If you're not psychic... buy now.

If you don't think the stock is undervalued... don't buy.
 

garsh

Dis Member
Moderator
TOO Supporting Member
Joined
Apr 4, 2016
Messages
11,246
Location
Pittsburgh PA
Tesla Owner
Model 3
Country
Country
#23
1) If you're psychic, wait until you forecast that the stock will hit it's lowest point, then buy.
I just think we're going to get some more bad news before things start looking up again. So I'm going to sit tight for another week, maybe two, before buying some more.
 

garsh

Dis Member
Moderator
TOO Supporting Member
Joined
Apr 4, 2016
Messages
11,246
Location
Pittsburgh PA
Tesla Owner
Model 3
Country
Country
#24
I just think we're going to get some more bad news before things start looking up again. So I'm going to sit tight for another week, maybe two, before buying some more.
Additional bad news #1: The wrecked X was in autopilot mode.

Tesla's lucky this was revealed on a holiday Friday, otherwise I think the stock would have already taken a huge hit. I still think it'll drop again when the market opens next week.
 

SoFlaModel3

@Teslatunity
Moderator
TOO Supporting Member
Joined
Apr 15, 2017
Messages
9,818
Location
Florida
Tesla Owner
Model 3
Country
Country
#26
Additional bad news #1: The wrecked X was in autopilot mode.

Tesla's lucky this was revealed on a holiday Friday, otherwise I think the stock would have already taken a huge hit. I still think it'll drop again when the market opens next week.
I expect it to go down Monday sadly.
 

KarenRei

Top-Contributor
Joined
Jul 27, 2017
Messages
1,647
Location
Reykjavík
Country
Country
#28
Lol, the shorts are "rallying the troops" over at Seeking Alpha, with a desperate plea for everyone to urgently get their short positions in:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4160353-time-go-wobbly-tesla-shorts

They even have this hilarious overlay of Tesla's stock with Enron's, which is something you can do with literally any two stocks just by picking your times and scaling factors.
 

Guy Weathersby

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jun 22, 2016
Messages
256
Location
Poway CA
#30
Bought some more at 248 and change Own a lot more Tesla than I normally hold of any individual stock But I think that it is a good buy.

I have a very rough formula for figuring out how much to buy, imagine that the company goes under and you lose all the money. If that would ruin your life, then you buying too much. If it would not ruin your week you probably should not bother

Actually, with Tesla, even if I didn't own stock it would ruin my week if they don't make it
 

Bokonon

Self-identified Teslaholic
Moderator
TOO Supporting Member
Joined
Apr 12, 2017
Messages
3,090
Location
Boston
Tesla Owner
Model 3
Country
Country
#31
Moody's dropped Tesla's credit rating. Many large institutions have rules against holding stock with this new rating.
...
I don't think we know if all of the large institutions have sold all of their Tesla yet - if so, the stock is likely to stabilize. If they continue dumping the stock, it's going down even more.
I've been thinking along these lines too. Conveniently, the first quarter just ended, so soon enough we should have a better idea of how institutional holdings have changed. The one I've been keeping my eye on is Fidelity, who, after years of accumulating TSLA, started gradually reducing their holdings in 2017, even as the share price continued upward through the 300s. Based on their SEC 13G filing in February, my guess is that this trend continued through the first quarter.

Broadly speaking, I think a lot of professional asset managers saw TSLA as "fully-valued" (at best) once its market cap achieved parity with GM last year, and started re-allocating their funds appropriately around that same time. From a risk-management standpoint, that was the sensible thing to do. By contrast, as an individual investor who happens to view Tesla as more than "just a car company," I have different viewpoints, metrics, and objectives... but inasmuch as I am not responsible for managing (read: protecting) a multi-billion dollar stock position, the degree to which my personal analysis of Tesla is "valid" or "correct" matters relatively little, at least in the short term.
 

KarenRei

Top-Contributor
Joined
Jul 27, 2017
Messages
1,647
Location
Reykjavík
Country
Country
#32
And... BOOM :)

https://www.streetinsider.com/Corporate+News/Tesla+(TSLA)+Says+Q1+production+totaled+34,494+vehicles,+9,766+were+Model+3/14014203.html

---------------------------------------------

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

Q1 production totaled 34,494 vehicles, a 40% increase from Q4 and by far the most productive quarter in Tesla history. 24,728 were Model S and Model X, and 9,766 were Model 3. The Model 3 output increased exponentially, representing a fourfold increase over last quarter. This is the fastest growth of any automotive company in the modern era. If this rate of growth continues, it will exceed even that of Ford and the Model T.


We were able to double the weekly Model 3 production rate during the quarter by rapidly addressing production and supply chain bottlenecks, including several short factory shutdowns to upgrade equipment.

In the past seven days, Tesla produced 2,020 Model 3 vehicles. In the next seven days, we expect to produce 2,000 Model S and X vehicles and 2,000 Model 3 vehicles. It is a testament to the ability of the Tesla production team that Model 3 volume now exceeds Model S and Model X combined. What took our team five years for S/X, took only nine months for Model 3.

Given the progress made thus far and upcoming actions for further capacity improvement, we expect that the Model 3 production rate will climb rapidly through Q2. Tesla continues to target a production rate of approximately 5,000 units per week in about three months, laying the groundwork for Q3 to have the long-sought ideal combination of high volume, good gross margin and strong positive operating cash flow. As a result, Tesla does not require an equity or debt raise this year, apart from standard credit lines.

Q1 deliveries totaled 29,980 vehicles, of which 11,730 were Model S, 10,070 were Model X, and 8,180 were Model 3. Net orders for Model S and X were at an all-time Q1 record, and demand remains very strong. Model S and X customer vehicles in transit were high. 4,060 Model S and X vehicles were in transit to customers at the end of Q1, which was 68% higher than at the end of Q4 2017. An additional 2,040 Model 3 vehicles were also in transit to customers. These vehicles will be delivered in early Q2 2018, which keeps us on track for our full-year 2018 Model S and X delivery guidance.

Finally, we would like to share two additional points about Model 3:

• The quality of Model 3 coming out of production is at the highest level we have seen across all our products. This is reflected in the overwhelming delight experienced by our customers with their Model 3’s. Our initial customer satisfaction score for Model 3 quality is above 93%, which is the highest score in Tesla’s history.

Net Model 3 reservations remained stable through Q1. The reasons for order cancellation are almost entirely due to delays in production in general and delays in availability of certain planned options, particularly dual motor AWD and the smaller battery pack. As described above, owner happiness with the product is extremely high.

We would like to thank our customers, suppliers and investors for their continued patience and belief in Tesla.
 

KarenRei

Top-Contributor
Joined
Jul 27, 2017
Messages
1,647
Location
Reykjavík
Country
Country
#34
I don't recommend trying to be psychic to "time things" perfectly. If you feel a stock is undervalued, buy. If you don't, don't.

Look at Tesla today. If you think it's undervalued, buy. If you don't, don't. :) If you want to eliminate randomness in buys and sells, spread them out. If you like the randomness, buy all at once.
 
Last edited:

Michael Russo

MSM Team Founder, Midnight S≡R≡NITY rider
Moderator
TOO Supporting Member
Joined
Oct 15, 2016
Messages
5,802
Location
Pau, France
Tesla Owner
Model S
Country
Country
#35
Nice !! 9766 Model 3 produced and 8180 delivered... TSLA already up 3%... ;)
 

garsh

Dis Member
Moderator
TOO Supporting Member
Joined
Apr 4, 2016
Messages
11,246
Location
Pittsburgh PA
Tesla Owner
Model 3
Country
Country
#36
Why. Why didn't I trust my instincts (and all the data we all had) and buy yesterday? :(
I don't recommend trying to be psychic to "time things" perfectly.
Exactly.
It's not really that much higher than it was yesterday. If you thought it was too low yesterday, then you probably think the price is still too low today. Go ahead and place an order.

I'm probably going to place an order today or tomorrow. :)
 

jmmdownhil

Active Member
TOO Supporting Member
Joined
Sep 11, 2017
Messages
82
Location
Chapel Hill, NC
Tesla Owner
Model 3
Country
Country
#38
Bought more as it went down through 255 yesterday. In for the long haul, but consider it all at 100% risk. As someone else said, it's like buying a lottery ticket but with better odds (maybe?). If you can't afford to lose it all, don't buy.
 
Last edited:

John

Tech Founder
TOO Supporting Member
Joined
Apr 15, 2016
Messages
1,662
Location
California
Tesla Owner
Model 3
Country
Country
#39
I should also note, that baked into almost every short thesis are two casual assumptions:

1. Tesla loses money on each car it produces
2. Tesla will soon run out of cash


So you can imagine how devastating it would be if Tesla was to show that Model 3 production looks to have good gross margin, and if Tesla turns from cash consumption to cash generation.

One of the interesting characteristics of a short bet is that the downside is not limited. In other words, if TSLA were to suddenly shoot up to $1000 (not likely, but play along), someone betting on a value of $100 as of a certain date would owe $900 per share. The only way to limit that loss is to decide at some point on the way up to actually buy a matching share of stock to "cover" the loss their borrowed share is incurring. For every dollar their borrowed share loses, their purchased share gains a dollar.

So if we start to see evidence of healthy gross margins and cash generation we would not only see a direct influence on the stock price, but also the compounding effect of shorts rushing to buy shares to cover their bets. With 25-30% of the stock shorted, that's a huge surge in demand.

It will get UGLY. There are billions of dollars on the line for short sellers. i kind of shudder to think what they might do to make Tesla look bad as Model 3 production takes off. Expect to see a lot of FUD in the press.