Teslanomics Estimator, How Accurate?

jtdiddy

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#1
I reserved in store in CA on the morning on day 1 (think i was #144 in line). I'm not a prior Tesla owner and want the larger battery (75k) 2wd version.

The estimator gives me an estimated delivery day of October 17, 2017. This seems a bit on the early side to me.

I know it's just an estimator but how accurate is it you guys think?
 

SoFlaModel3

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#2
It's a bit of a gray area...

You're early for sure being that you're in California and have the spec that will be built first.

Now I say gray area, because...

Elon tweeted that 30 will be produced in July, 100 in August, 1,500+ in September, and 20,000 in December.

Do I think you're in October? Probably not. I would say good chance you're this year though.
 

Deadbattery

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#3
I reserved in store in CA on the morning on day 1 (think i was #144 in line). I'm not a prior Tesla owner and want the larger battery (75k) 2wd version.

The estimator gives me an estimated delivery day of October 17, 2017. This seems a bit on the early side to me.

I know it's just an estimator but how accurate is it you guys think?

The assumptions embedded in the estimator are based on dated information. I think he was assuming ~85k cars this year. Which at this point seems wrong. Based on the information from The Sunday twitter we can expect 25-35k cars to be manufactured in 2017, less than half the estimator. (And lower than Elon's prior estimates. Recall he avoided projecting as the variability was too high to make a meaningful estimate)

The problem is that the the ramp is so dramatic varying from literally 1 car a day to nearly 700 and so many things that can (and will) go wrong. So yes, I think longer.
 

jtdiddy

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#4
It's a bit of a gray area...

You're early for sure being that you're in California and have the spec that will be built first.

Now I say gray area, because...

Elon tweeted that 30 will be produced in July, 100 in August, 1,500+ in September, and 20,000 in December.

Do I think you're in October? Probably not. I would say good chance you're this year though.
Yea, my initial hunch looking at the stats was that i'd be happy to get delivery in December but October seemed way too early.
 

Ip Man

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#5
Let me put it this way.
I was 114 in line at Boston-order went in 11:45am est
want dual motor and many other options-July next yr at the earliest.
So 3 yrs waiting.
 

UncleT

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#6
I reserved in store in CA on the morning on day 1 (think i was #144 in line). I'm not a prior Tesla owner and want the larger battery (75k) 2wd version.

The estimator gives me an estimated delivery day of October 17, 2017. This seems a bit on the early side to me.

I know it's just an estimator but how accurate is it you guys think?
When I select the same info, but for the east coast, I get 13 Dec. I don't think so, way too optimistic.

I don't know how anyone can even predict dual motor or performance deliveries since no one (probably not even Tesla) knows when they will even start producing them.
 

SoFlaModel3

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#7
When I select the same info, but for the east coast, I get 13 Dec. I don't think so, way too optimistic.

I don't know how anyone can even predict dual motor or performance deliveries since no one (probably not even Tesla) knows when they will even start producing them.
That's the point. It's a wild guess. I wouldn't put much stock in it.
 

TrevP

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#8
The problem with these estimators is that they don't take into account the difference between actual production numbers and actual deliveries. In the Tesla world those are VERY different things. Tesla always has a shortfall with deliveries going into quarters given their transportation issues.

Model S regularly starts each quarter with not only a production shortfall but also a delivery shortfall because lots of cars are in "transit" to the ultimate destination. They might make 20K Model S in a QUARTER but they usually have 2500-5000 cars still in transit. What is this going to look like when they make 10K cars a week? We could be seeing 2500 cars in transit on a weekly basis!

Given how they work, the expected slow production ramp at first and delivery shortfall I deliberately timed my current lease to end 9 months after Tesla's oft-stated "mid 2017" production start when they started talking about Model 3 publicly in 2015. I'm just too used to Tesla's slow ramp with Model S and X to expect anything in Canada before then, especially given the sheer backorder amount on the Model 3. And I even stood in line before the reveal in Toronto and my sequence number is probably in the first 18000 people.
 

Ip Man

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#9
We all still don't know the final numbers of range and what or how the final interior will work.
I'm expecting a model S and X update which is why I think the delivery numbers are low for the past quarter.
Updated cars.
 

Diamond.g

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#10
Ben got his formula from Troy (at TMC). Troy said he was going to try to update the formula by tomorrow.

I wonder if folks noticed Elon gave production numbers for the first three months then switched to production rate for December. It is a different metric. Being pessimistic I wouldn't expect to see many general customer cars this calendar year.
 

SoFlaModel3

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#11
Ben got his formula from Troy (at TMC). Troy said he was going to try to update the formula by tomorrow.

I wonder if folks noticed Elon gave production numbers for the first three months then switched to production rate for December. It is a different metric. Being pessimistic I wouldn't expect to see many general customer cars this calendar year.
That's why there is a lot of speculation right now. Even if the numbers supplied by Elon are spot on, he didn't supply numbers for October or November.
 

Deadbattery

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#12
That's why there is a lot of speculation right now. Even if the numbers supplied by Elon are spot on, he didn't supply numbers for October or November.
No but they can be interpolated. That is how I came to the 25-35k number for this year. I have a chart but am embarrassed to say I cannot figure out how to upload an image to this 1999 software.
 

SoFlaModel3

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#13
No but they can be interpolated. That is how I came to the 25-35k number for this year. I have a chart but am embarrassed to say I cannot figure out how to upload an image to this 1999 software.
I agree with you. I've seen a few charts/guesstimates on the curve of the ramp up.
 

Michael Russo

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#15
(...)
I wonder if folks noticed Elon gave production numbers for the first three months then switched to production rate for December. It is a different metric. Being pessimistic I wouldn't expect to see many general customer cars this calendar year.
How about if Elon has finally mastered the art of underpromising and overdelivering? ;)