Tesla to report quarterly accident statistics

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NOGA$4ME

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#1
From: https://www.tesla.com/blog/q3-2018-vehicle-safety-report

Q3 2018 Vehicle Safety Report
The Tesla Team October 4, 2018
At Tesla, the safety of our customers is our top priority, which is why it’s critical that we design and build the safest cars in the world. Not only do we conduct extensive in-house testing and simulation to ensure our vehicles achieve top safety performance before they ever reach the road, we are also uniquely positioned to leverage the hundreds of thousands of miles of real-world data our fleet collects every month to continuously improve our vehicles and develop a more complete picture of safety over time.
Because every Tesla is connected, in most instances we are able to learn immediately when a Tesla vehicle has been involved in a crash. Additionally, our non-traditional sales model allows us to have a direct relationship with our customers for the lifecycle of ownership, providing an avenue for us to supplement our records and gain even more insight as needed. In contrast, automakers whose cars aren’t connected and who utilize networks of third-party franchised dealers may never know when a vehicle is involved in an accident. Through traditional channels, it can take months or even years for lawsuits or claims to be filed that provide automakers with insight into an accident that allows them to draw meaningful conclusions and improve safety.
Earlier this year, when we made the decision to begin publishing our safety data on a regular basis, we designed and introduced a completely new telemetry stream for our vehicles to facilitate these reports. This new data stream allows us to gather the most critical fleet-wide statistics from the exact moment a crash-related event is detected by our system. While there are still some unique cases in which crash data may not be available to us through this channel, we believe this system currently provides the best framework for safety reporting on an ongoing basis.
Here’s a look at the data we’re able to report for Q3:

  • Over the past quarter, we’ve registered one accident or crash-like event for every 3.34 million miles driven in which drivers had Autopilot engaged.
  • For those driving without Autopilot, we registered one accident or crash-like event for every 1.92 million miles driven. By comparison, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration’s (NHTSA) most recent data shows that in the United States, there is an automobile crash every 492,000 miles. While NHTSA’s data includes accidents that have occurred, our records include accidents as well as near misses (what we are calling crash-like events).
Moving forward, we will publicly release these accident figures on a quarterly basis.
Given the degree to which accidents can vary in severity and circumstance, we’ve started an additional initiative to create a more complete picture of safety by gathering serious injury data from our customers following an accident. While we have long maintained the practice of calling our customers whenever our system detects a crash in order to see whether they need emergency assistance, we now also use these calls to understand if they sustained an injury in the crash, and if they have feedback on our current safety system. This will help us continue to improve our system and understand the rate of serious injuries over time.
We also encourage our customers to proactively contact Tesla Support if they are ever seriously injured in a Tesla vehicle, or if they have suggestions about improving safety features.
As we are working hard to make our cars the safest and most capable cars on the road in terms of passive safety, active safety, and automated driving, we must continue to encourage driver vigilance on the road – that is, by and large, the best way to prevent traffic accidents. Safety is at the core of everything we do and every decision we make, so we cannot stress this enough. We want our cars to not only lead the way to sustainable energy, but also make driving as safe as possible for everyone, and we are working as quickly as we can to achieve that. We look forward to sharing continued updates with our customers and community, and working together to make our vehicles as safe as possible.
 

bwilson4web

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#3
I noticed the Q1 2020 metrics have not been posted. Any ideas?

LATE EDIT:

The Q1 2020 metrics just showed up:

In the 1st quarter, we registered one accident for every 4.68 million miles driven in which drivers had Autopilot engaged. For those driving without Autopilot but with our active safety features, we registered one accident for every 1.99 million miles driven. For those driving without Autopilot and without our active safety features, we registered one accident for every 1.42 million miles driven. By comparison, NHTSA’s most recent data shows that in the United States there is an automobile crash every 479,000 miles.
Total overall miles and crashes were significantly reduced in this quarter.

I'm looking forward to the day when FSD joins the quarterly report.

Bob Wilson
 
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FRC

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There's something here that I'm missing. A Tesla driven without autopilot and without active safety features has accidents at 1/3 the rate of the total overall(479,000 miles vs. 1.42 million miles). What makes Tesla 3 times less likely to be involved in an accident when none of it's active safety features are enabled? Shouldn't this be much closer to 1:1? What am I missing?
 

MelindaV

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There's something here that I'm missing. A Tesla driven without autopilot and without active safety features has accidents at 1/3 the rate of the total overall(479,000 miles vs. 1.42 million miles). What makes Tesla 3 times less likely to be involved in an accident when none of it's active safety features are enabled? Shouldn't this be much closer to 1:1? What am I missing?
Maybe demographic? The group most likely to be in a wreck are younger drivers. Likely fewer teslas being driven than 15 year old honda. Would be interesting to see the same number for other luxury priced brands.
 

FRC

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Maybe demographic? The group most likely to be in a wreck are younger drivers. Likely fewer teslas being driven than 15 year old honda. Would be interesting to see the same number for other luxury priced brands.
So, is Tesla comparing apples to oranges here? I hope not, but it appears that this might be a classic case of "how to lie with statistics". If Tesla is safer than other brands(and I believe that it is), then just give us the straight info without puffing and exaggerating. Don't give the opposition any unnecessary ammunition.
 

MelindaV

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So, is Tesla comparing apples to oranges here? I hope not, but it appears that this might be a classic case of "how to lie with statistics". If Tesla is safer than other brands(and I believe that it is), then just give us the straight info without puffing and exaggerating. Don't give the opposition any unnecessary ammunition.
if those driving their cars are overall safer drivers, that is valid And the stats still work. The vast majority of any car wreck is human error, so what kind of driver is buying is the biggest part of the stat.
maybe they should state it more as “tesla drivers” instead of “tesla vehicles”?
 

iChris93

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So, is Tesla comparing apples to oranges here? I hope not, but it appears that this might be a classic case of "how to lie with statistics". If Tesla is safer than other brands(and I believe that it is), then just give us the straight info without puffing and exaggerating. Don't give the opposition any unnecessary ammunition.
I think here it’s good that Tesla released all their stats for a more apples to apples comparison. Comparing autopilot to all cars, maybe not so insightful. Comparing autopilot to Teslas without autopilot on, maybe more insightful. It’s still important to point out that most of APs miles are interstate where collisions are less likely to happen so it’s still a bit of twisting the stats.
 

FRC

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#9
It would be nice to see some useful data. The numbers supplied above by Tesla are just that...numbers. Easily misinterpreted and fairly useless.
 

SR22pilot

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#10
There's something here that I'm missing. A Tesla driven without autopilot and without active safety features has accidents at 1/3 the rate of the total overall(479,000 miles vs. 1.42 million miles). What makes Tesla 3 times less likely to be involved in an accident when none of it's active safety features are enabled? Shouldn't this be much closer to 1:1? What am I missing?
There are several things at play. Demographics is one. Another one is active safety features. Remember that all Tesla automobiles have automatic emergency braking enabled. Correct me if I’m wrong but vibrating the wheel when you start to cross out of a lane is also on every car. In general, newer cars have fewer accidents. One interesting difference with Tesla is that older cars with appropriate hardware get safety upgrades via over the air updates. If a Toyota didn’t have lane keep assist when bought then it will never have it. All Tesla’s since AP1 have this.
 
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garsh

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What makes Tesla 3 times less likely to be involved in an accident when none of it's active safety features are enabled?
I think that must basically mean the older, pre-autopilot cars, right? Or is it possible to de-activate the safety features?

Probably the main difference is that the group of non-Tesla cars includes a lot of cars that are more than 8 years old, and older cars are more likely to have additional accidents due to some part on the car itself failing and causing the accident.
 

FRC

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I think what concerns me most is that Tesla is publishing these quarterly numbers as a fait de complis, as if the numbers speak for themselves. Well, they don't. At least not without significant additional refinement. Either refine the numbers before publication, or don't publish them. Tesla needs to stand firmly on the highest ground possible...where the fudsters can't reach them.
 

bwilson4web

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As much as having a full set of accident metrics from everyone, it isn't going to happen outside of Tesla. The closest we have is the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS):
https://www.nhtsa.gov/research-data/fatality-analysis-reporting-system-fars
FARS is a nationwide census providing NHTSA, Congress and the American public yearly data regarding fatal injuries suffered in motor vehicle traffic crashes.
. . .
Speeding Data Visualization Prototype: Traffic Fatalities in Crashes Involving Speed, 2016
. . .

One FARS problem is a 2-3 year delay before the online data is available. It won't be until 2021-2022 that we'll be able to compare my "stale data" 2019 Model 3 versus the rest of the industry. As for the effects of today's 2020.12.6, a week old, there won't be any data until 2023-2024. These last year, much less last quarter, details are missing from the NHTSA (don't take my word, check.) So Tesla is comparing current accident metrics they collect against what little the NHTSA provides. I know this because I have some direct experience:
http://hiwaay.net/~bzwilson/prius/Prius_Fatal_Accidents/prius_fatalities_2001_07.html

In 2009, the "Bell The Hybrid" (my term) was passed by Congress and signed into law. This law mandated noise generators on what was called "quiet cars," at the time occupied by the Prius. I was and remain convinced that bad statistics were used to placate the blind, an important set of campaign workers. But one thing discovered in data, vehicles with larger A pillars, the windshield left and right supports have a bias in pedestrian accidents. Turns into the A pillar closest to the driver have more fatal accidents. My hypothesis is the closer the driver is to the A pillar, the greater the risk of blocking the view of pedestrians even in cross-walks. One eye can not see through the A pillar; the curved path keeps that blind spot fixed, and; the other eye has a 'blind spot' perfect to overlap the A pillar blind spot. But the real problem is bad data and aged data from the NHTSA which is why we have the Tesla accident metrics.

If the FARS had timely and accurate data, Tesla and the other manufacturers, would have something to compare. Timely means as soon as it is available even if not complete. As for accurate, the FARS data is pretty noisy and I had to throwout a lot out because manually entered by many sources, it was incomplete. In contrast, Tesla has automated accident reporting which the others lack. Mandate airbag deployments shall electronically report metrics from the air bag controller. Require the manufacturer to collect the data and the next year, every vehicle will have a cell data link.

Well I've got time so I'll try to scrape data from FARS as much as is available. A retired engineer, I do not like to curse the darkness.

Bob Wilson
 

NOGA$4ME

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#14
I think what concerns me most is that Tesla is publishing these quarterly numbers as a fait de complis, as if the numbers speak for themselves. Well, they don't. At least not without significant additional refinement. Either refine the numbers before publication, or don't publish them. Tesla needs to stand firmly on the highest ground possible...where the fudsters can't reach them.
While as an engineer I agree with you, that's not how companies' press releases work. You put your best foot forward and put your company in the best possible light. Sure, I would like to see Tesla take the high road here, but right or wrong, they have to compete with other companies that are behaving the same way. As long as they don't tell outright lies, I'm afraid we have to live with it.
 

bwilson4web

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#15
The latest FAR data is only from 2018:
Code:
Date     fatalities    address                DR_ZIP
3/23 2018     1    US-101 BAYSHORE FREEWAY    94404
3/30 2018     0    I-405                      91344
4/1 2018      0    2ND AVE                    33131
4/27 2018     1    CR-22 MILLIKIN RD          45050
5/8 2018      2    SR-A1A                     33316
5/19 2018     1    CROW CANYON RD             94526
7/23 2018     1    LINDELL BLVD               63124
8/5 2018      0    SR-842 UPLAND RD           19363
9/7 2018      0    SR-36                      68007
9/21 2018     1    SR-91                      92887
11/10 2018    2    FRANCIS DR                 92262
11/11 2018    0    US-441                     32608
11/25 2018    0    US-301                     34202
12/26 2018    1    PERRY ROAD                 34611
12/30 2018    1    CR-717                     22182
There are a lot of additional details on each accident plus Mr Google can find press reports. But my 2019 Model 3 is not part of this data.

Bob Wilson
 

SR22pilot

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#16
We need to be careful focusing on just one thing. Larger A-pillars May increase pedestrian accidents but the are there in the first place because the increase crash safety.

as for noise generation, I worry about all those cars making sound in the city when it could be quiet. I also worry about the rule being unfairly applied. A Lexus is pretty quiet at slow speeds in a parking lot.