Tesla time or Accurate Assessment of delivery?

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#1
On the US / Canada and International sites , we have the same text:
Starting price in USD. Local pricing will be announced in 2017.
Production begins mid 2017.
Delivery estimate for new reservations is mid 2018 or later.

Somebody who reserves today and is not a rabid fanboy would expect a delivery in 2018 , taking the text as is - I know "or later" is non committal.

-Do you think we'll get firmer dates in July?

The estimate for new order delivery sets expectations too high IMHO . With an optimistic 50,000 cars a month, this would be 400k made by July 2018.

I reserved mine a few months ago and don't expect it until mid to late 2019 in Ireland .

However, If you reserved today and did not pay close attention to the news , you might reasonably expect a car in 2018....

Either Elon is aiming higher for ramp-up far beyond expectations internally , or is is a simple case of poor corporate communication?
 

chopr147

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#2
Somebody who reserves today and is not a rabid fanboy
That's the key words. As a fanboy I know Tesla time is not realistic :)
In theory a new order can get their car in 2018 but that is if everything goes perfect and according to plan. Not gonna happen. One Tesla weakness is communication. Good luck getting an answer from Tesla anytime in 2017 or even 2018 if ordering today.
 

SoFlaModel3

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#4
On the US / Canada and International sites , we have the same text:
Starting price in USD. Local pricing will be announced in 2017.
Production begins mid 2017.
Delivery estimate for new reservations is mid 2018 or later.

Somebody who reserves today and is not a rabid fanboy would expect a delivery in 2018 , taking the text as is - I know "or later" is non committal.

-Do you think we'll get firmer dates in July?

The estimate for new order delivery sets expectations too high IMHO . With an optimistic 50,000 cars a month, this would be 400k made by July 2018.

I reserved mine a few months ago and don't expect it until mid to late 2019 in Ireland .

However, If you reserved today and did not pay close attention to the news , you might reasonably expect a car in 2018....

Either Elon is aiming higher for ramp-up far beyond expectations internally , or is is a simple case of poor corporate communication?
There are a lot of unknowns, which I anticipate will become known in July.

As we know the final reveal is in July. What we don't know is if that also marks the opening of the design studio (many do expect that to be the case).

Additionally, we do not know if the design studio opens in waves or for everyone.

Logic says it opens in waves based on your reservation timing and geography.

Lastly we don't know if all options will reflect in the design studio (like dual motor) and if it will reflect a production delay or if the option will be excluded from the design studio until it's ready.

As I said, I think the July final reveal will answer all of our questions.

To your expectation of 2019 versus the stated 2018, it all comes down to how quickly they scale production.

I am a pre-reveal reservation in a Florida and my expectation is 2Q 2018. Everything seems to be on schedule and so I'm hoping for 1Q 2018 and will be happy with that (2 years from reservation). If it happens in 4Q 2017 that would just be awesome!!