Tesla’s progress to 200k US deliveries & Federal Tax Credit Phaseout OFFICIALLY STARTS 1/1/19

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DR61

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Also one thing about the Model 3 thats annoying is that its not a 35K car its a 36K because they charge 1000 destination fee even if you were at the end of the factory production line but I digress.
I think this is US law; all destinations get the same delivery charge. This applies to all automakers. Of course delivery at Fremont (and other close delivery centers) is best for Tesla profits; one reason that California reservations get priority.
 

Brokedoc

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The Canadian cars have different hardware. Designing those Model 3 parts and finding a supplier would require extra planning. In addition, I'm calculating 3,000 RWD, 10,600 AWD non-performance, and 2,400 Performance Model 3 orders from Canada. Even if they fulfill all 3000 RWD orders, that might not be enough. Trying to game the system and failing would be worse than not doing anything.
I’m not sure how @Troy calculated these Canadian numbers but my estimate of roughly 20,000 Model 3s can be diverted to Canada by June which would fulfill all of these orders that @Troy has estimated. That would be 8 weeks of production at 2500/wk. Given the colder climate of Canada and the associated parasitic cold weather range losses and smaller Supercharger infrastructure, demand for standard battery is not as high as in the US.

From there, resuming US deliveries could be peppered nationwide throughout the logistical system for physical delivery first week of July and count towards 3Q2018.
 

NOGA$4ME

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Given the colder climate of Canada and the associated parasitic cold weather range losses and smaller Supercharger infrastructure, demand for standard battery is not as high as in the US.
And also on average, Canada is more rural than the US, meaning that typical daily driving distances themselves are greater.
 

Brokedoc

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Apparently, this Canada stuff is all @TrevP and Kenneth Bokor's doing, according to.....
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/model-3-delivery-estimator.77890/page-84#post-2558562
Message # 1664
Powerful guys! ;)
That was a mod that posted the rumor and spreading FUD! No wonder TMC is so confrontational! I don’t enjoy going over there at all. They click disagree buttons at the drop of a hat.

AND since this is a “Canadian” site we should all just get along and crack open a Molson, Eh?
 
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I just don't see how diversion to Canada in Q2 squares with the fact that most US reservations have been given new first production estimates between March and June of 2018. From Tesla estimates it appears that almost all production for those months will be first production cars going to the US. The Canadian reservations only have a vague mid-2018.
 

Brokedoc

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I just don't see how diversion to Canada in Q2 squares with the fact that most US reservations have been given new first production estimates between March and June of 2018. From Tesla estimates it appears that almost all production for those months will be first production cars going to the US. The Canadian reservations only have a vague mid-2018.
I completely agree about the vague mid 2018 time frame but it’s still earlier than my vague late 2018 time frame.

And yes, you are right that there are MANY first production windows showing Mar-June. Keep in mind that ALL 30,000+ employees/insiders and ALMOST ALL current US owners (?100,000+) have been invited to buy first production but only 8,000 first production cars have been made. The conversion rate from invite to first production is VERY low. Many who can afford it will be waiting for Dual Motor but many non-owners can’t afford first production so they will have a MUCH higher SR percentage.

Plus, Tesla has extended the lead time after placing your order when you get the invite. My current Configurator is showing a 3-6 week lead time if I wanted First Production. People can get invites end of May, Order a first Production, and not get the car delivered until first week of July and Tesla would still be on target.
 

oey192

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Now that my window has been adjusted to Apr-Jun, I’d be more than happy to have them miss that by one day if it meant a lot more people got the tax credit. However, if they did something like that for lots of people it would absolutely destroy their delivery centers.
Also, I’m hoping that moving from Jan-Mar to Apr-Jun has moved me from being able to configure at the end of the window to being able to take delivery toward the beginning of the window but that would depends on nothing else going wrong…

Ultimately since I want to wait for AWD I’d love it if they were able to delay the 200k delivery to Q3. Unfortunately for now all we have is speculation so it’s just a continuation of the long wait and see game…
 

scaots

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I just hope that Tesla provides numbers or time frame when they know how this will unfold to help me decide... I would love to get AWD, but not at expense of losing full tax credit because without full credit the 3 becomes tough to justify for me.
 

RunCycle

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I just hope that Tesla provides numbers or time frame when they know how this will unfold to help me decide... I would love to get AWD, but not at expense of losing full tax credit because without full credit the 3 becomes tough to justify for me.
The next numbers from Tesla we will see will be in the first week of April. They announce their [worldwide] delivery numbers for the quarter right after each quarter ends.

Hopefully before then, we will hear about some non-owner invites, and maybe get a rough estimate of which non-owners were invited...
 

smak

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I just don't see how diversion to Canada in Q2 squares with the fact that most US reservations have been given new first production estimates between March and June of 2018. From Tesla estimates it appears that almost all production for those months will be first production cars going to the US. The Canadian reservations only have a vague mid-2018.
Tesla has a guy who posts reservation estimates for Canada, and another guy who posts reservation estimates for the US, and they've never met.

That's the only explanation I can think of.
 

smak

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Plus, Tesla has extended the lead time after placing your order when you get the invite. My current Configurator is showing a 3-6 week lead time if I wanted First Production. People can get invites end of May, Order a first Production, and not get the car delivered until first week of July and Tesla would still be on target.
The 6 week part of that I think is two things.

I think they are going to invite more people next time.

Also, they are going to have more and more invited people who didn't get a car, who can order their car at any time.

So they'll send out new invites, and any number of people already invited can jump in as well at any time.
 

scaots

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The next numbers from Tesla we will see will be in the first week of April. They announce their [worldwide] delivery numbers for the quarter right after each quarter ends.

Hopefully before then, we will hear about some non-owner invites, and maybe get a rough estimate of which non-owners were invited...
Yes, unfortunately that gives us no clue of progress to the US tax credit phase out so we are all guessing on US numbers for the last year plus. Probably doesn't really matter. Even if full credit goes through Q4, my dual config says late 2018 and we know to expect delays so I probably wouldn't risk it anyway. But I would feel a little let down if I actually get first production late Q2 then find out that my dual config could have been a lock with full credit.
 

Brokedoc

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I just hope that Tesla provides numbers or time frame when they know how this will unfold to help me decide... I would love to get AWD, but not at expense of losing full tax credit because without full credit the 3 becomes tough to justify for me.
A LOT of people have the same considerations about the tax credit. Everyone has their own set of criteria and priorities but it typically boils down to "I hope to get as many options that I want AND get the most tax credit possible".

Unfortunately, Tesla has left a multitude of unknowns that makes our decision making feel like playing 10 games of chess simultaneously. Will While interior cost more money? What does non PUP include? When is Dual Motor available? How much will Dual Motor cost? Will Dual Motor only be packaged with SAS and be more expensive? When will SR available?

So I will share my thought processes and possibly it will help others so when their invites come, they can act quickly and not second guess their choices.

Tesla likely will announce the 200k mark with much fanfare. Then the clock starts for the Tax Credit phaseout. The remainder of that quarter and all of the next quarter will receive the full tax credit so when the announcement is made, we will have from 3-6 months before the full tax credit drops in half. MANY invitees have deferred their invites. MANY of them will suddenly place their orders when the announcement is made because they will want to get the full tax credit. The lead time at that point will no longer be 3-6 weeks as currently predicted but will be much longer due to the multitudes of people that urgently place their order. Thankfully the 200k mark should come at point where weekly production is at least 5k/wk so hopefully those that place orders quickly and have and earlier invite will get delivery before the tax credit drops. IF Tesla is able to time the 200k point to the first week of July then we will have almost a fully 6 months before credit reduction and everyone who gets an invite and places their order should be able to get the full credit assuming no production snafus.

So, we must be ready in our heads with what to order when the announcement is made. Again, your choices may change depending on each bone that Tesla throws to us with new options and prices. In my head, I've estimated (and I could be COMPLETELY wrong but at least it's my best educated guess) what will be available to me at what timeframe and at what price. Everyone else will have a different timeframe depending on owner status and time of reservation. So here are my assumptions for availabilities/prices to owner early reservations:

First Production Available now ($50k w/ premium paint)
White Interior Available Late Q1/Early Q2 (no extra charge w/ PUP)
Dual Motor/Performance/SAS/LR/PUP Available Late Q2 ($62k w/ premium paint)
NON PUP and SR available Late Q3/Early Q4
Dual Motor/SAS/SR/PUP available Late Q3/Early Q4 ($49k w/ premium paint - This is my preferred config)

So in my head, I've already decided that if 200k happens Q2 then I will order Dual Motor/Performance/SAS/LR/PUP/White Interior or Q3 I will order Dual Motor/SAS/SR/PUP/White Interior.

My second reservation is NON owner 2nd day with delayed windows compared to the above estimates. Thankfully, as the ramp increases, the later windows will all begin to blend together. For that reservation, I'm aiming for choices of Q2/200k of First Production or Q3/200k Dual Motor/Performance/SAS/LR/PUP/White Interior. SR battery for my non owner reservation is estimated Early 2019 so waiting for SR doesn't seem possible without losing the full credit.
 
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scaots

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Tesla likely will announce the 200k mark with much fanfare. Then the clock starts for the Tax Credit phaseout. The remainder of that quarter and all of the next quarter will receive the full tax credit so when the announcement is made, we will have from 3-6 months before the full tax credit drops in half. MANY invitees have deferred their invites. MANY of them will suddenly place their orders when the announcement is made because they will want to get the full tax credit. The lead time at that point will no longer be 3-6 weeks as currently predicted but will be much longer due to the multitudes of people that urgently place their order. Thankfully the 200k mark should come at point where weekly production is at least 5k/wk so hopefully those that place orders quickly and have and earlier invite will get delivery before the tax credit drops.
I certainly hope they do announce and seems like they may be playing the timing. Might as well slow things and work out all the kinks now and be ready to crank 5k/week by end of Q2.

Excellent point on mass orders once the credit phase out is announced.

So I will probably just order as soon as I can. I will probably hang on to my SUV for a couple years anyway for bad weather or when we need more space. Maybe 4 years down the road hope wife is onboard to get herself a Y and would definitely get it with AWD.
 

Dr. J

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Question 1: Is anyone estimating the number of deferred invitees-to-configure?

SR battery for my non owner reservation is estimated Early 2019 so waiting for SR doesn't seem possible without losing the full credit.
Question 2: Do you mean losing half the credit, or losing all of it? ('Cause there will almost certainly be a 1/4 credit, if not a 1/2 credit, when SR becomes available for many people.)

Question 3: Does it make sense to order SR without any tax credit rather than LR (a $9,000 option) with either full or half credit? Personal choice, but you definitely save money if you forgo the LR expense under any tax credit scenario (at most a $7,500 benefit).