Suppliers: Model 3 Production Increasing

McHoffa

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#3
Nice. I think this means CA-based non-owners should start seeing their cars around the end of Jan.
I hope, but we haven't even seen any invitations for current owners outside California yet, and with 3-4 weeks for delivery from time of order, you'd have to start seeing them all get their invitations in the next two weeks.
 

avoigt

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#4
The interesting part is that I can't find a single report about the electric report in the news. When production numbers have been slashed on the supplier side we had 10+ reports in all the media but now? Its silent.....

If I did believe that this is a coincidence before than I have to reconsider now. Hard to imagine there are no hard $ interest out there to play this down and ignore important news....
 

barjohn

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#6
Does anyone know or know where to find the number of Model 3 orders placed for CA delivery on the first 2 days of orders and out of that group how many were prior owners? For example, if it was 50K total and 10K prior owners, at 2K per week production it would take 25 weeks to meet first 2 days of CA orders and 5 weeks to meet all of CA pre-owned orders for the first two days of orders. We can assume that they are not at 2K/week production yet so it would be 25 weeks from the first of the year or about 6 months. If they can achieve 5K/week by end of March (first 12 weeks=24K units and it would take 5.2 wks to complete the 50K deliveries). Just trying to estimate how realistic Tesla's estimator is.
 

McHoffa

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#7
Does anyone know or know where to find the number of Model 3 orders placed for CA delivery on the first 2 days of orders and out of that group how many were prior owners? For example, if it was 50K total and 10K prior owners, at 2K per week production it would take 25 weeks to meet first 2 days of CA orders and 5 weeks to meet all of CA pre-owned orders for the first two days of orders. We can assume that they are not at 2K/week production yet so it would be 25 weeks from the first of the year or about 6 months. If they can achieve 5K/week by end of March (first 12 weeks=24K units and it would take 5.2 wks to complete the 50K deliveries). Just trying to estimate how realistic Tesla's estimator is.
Currently about 50% of US Tesla owners are in California

Elon had said early on that 8% of reservations were current owners. That’s probably gone up though.

About 50% of all Tesla purchases are in the US.

If we have 500k reservations now that’s 250k in the US, 125K in California. 10% of that is 12.5k.

Polls showed at least half want to wait for other options, so ~6k people to get through before we see orders for current owners outside California?


(very rough estimates)
 

barjohn

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#8
Will current owners outside of CA get delivery before non-owners in CA assuming ordering on same day? Also, my question was on CA orders in first two days. Tesla shows about 198,000 total through April 1st but no breakdown on how many were in CA versus elsewhere. For example, I ordered on April 1st on line for delivery in CA. My estimated delivery window is now FEB-APR (was JAN-MAR). I am a non current owner. Trying to estimate how realistic this is based on how many they can produce and how many orders would be ahead of me in the queue. I'm assuming non one chooses to wait for a different configuration.
 

McHoffa

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#9
Will current owners outside of CA get delivery before non-owners in CA assuming ordering on same day? Also, my question was on CA orders in first two days. Tesla shows about 198,000 total through April 1st but no breakdown on how many were in CA versus elsewhere. For example, I ordered on April 1st on line for delivery in CA. My estimated delivery window is now FEB-APR (was JAN-MAR). I am a non current owner. Trying to estimate how realistic this is based on how many they can produce and how many orders would be ahead of me in the queue. I'm assuming non one chooses to wait for a different configuration.
As I explained above, the only info we have is current Tesla sales, which is around half in the US being in California.

I THINK they are going west to east with owners, and THEN going west to east with non owners. Your estimate is only realistic if they ramp up soon. If they fall another month or two behind on the full ramp up to thousands per week, then obviously your date would get pushed out again.

Hopefully the slight increase we are seeing is an indication that the ramp will happen very soon, but I am not counting on it at all.
 

sreams

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#10
I THINK they are going west to east with owners, and THEN going west to east with non owners.
The question becomes... Within what timeframe? I doubt an owner who reserved on 12-14-17 will receive an invitation before a non-owner who stood in line on 3-31-16. I think I've read about owners reserving more recently and getting later delivery estimates. So I wonder how Tesla is prioritizing date/time of reservation. Maybe they work through all reservations from a given day (both owners and non-owners) before they move on to the next day's reservations. Or maybe it's a week. Who knows.
 

McHoffa

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#11
The question becomes... Within what timeframe? I doubt an owner who reserved on 12-14-17 will receive an invitation before a non-owner who stood in line on 3-31-16. I think I've read about owners reserving more recently and getting later delivery estimates. So I wonder how Tesla is prioritizing date/time of reservation. Maybe they work through all reservations from a given day (both owners and non-owners) before they move on to the next day's reservations. Or maybe it's a week. Who knows.
I don't know where I saw it recently, but someone who reserved a Model 3 recently bought a Model S and their Model 3 date jumped from next summer to Dec-Feb.
 

sreams

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#12
I don't know where I saw it recently, but someone who reserved a Model 3 recently bought a Model S and their Model 3 date jumped from next summer to Dec-Feb.
And then there was someone who posted that his Tesla-owner father accidentally cancelled his son's reservation. When he made a new reservation, the new delivery estimate was much later.

BTW... I'm a non-owner line waiter, and my estimate is also Dec-Feb. So it's hard to tell if the person in your example is ahead of me or behind me.