Speculation

Dr. J

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#1
What if....

After being criticized continuously for "over promising and under delivering", Tesla has generated this latest 3-month delay in their "estimated delivery" window to get onto the other side of that accusation; under promise and over deliver?

That is, they've calculated that they actually only need another four to six weeks delay, and they'll be able to deliver BEFORE what they've now told their reservation holders.

Wouldn't that be wonderful?

Nah, I don't believe that either.
Moderator, this post should be moved to Speculation. :)
 

mjgillen

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#4
All these threads have degenerated into random thoughts anyways... there really is not continuity... almost as bad as the For Sale forum on TMC

Just sayin :)
 

M3OC Rules

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#6
All these threads have degenerated into random thoughts anyways... there really is not continuity... almost as bad as the For Sale forum on TMC

Just sayin :)
In order to continue your thought I'll degenerate this Speculation thread by thanking the Moderators for their work. Great forum. I don't even bother with TMC. :)
 

Dr. J

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#7
In order to continue your thought I'll degenerate this Speculation thread by thanking the Moderators for their work. Great forum. I don't even bother with TMC. :)
As the trigger for this Speculation thread, I also want to thank the Moderators. It's not often a post makes me nearly fall off the sofa laughing, but this move by @garsh did. They do great work here!
 

Michael Russo

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#8
Putting this here, ‘cause if you look back of what the article describes, there was a lot of it over the years.

IMHO, excellent article on Cleantechnica that replaces actual progress with Model 3 start & production ramp-up within original projections from many years back. Eye-opening perspective if you ask me which makes me want to applaud T≡SLA efforts even more!! :cool:

Is Tesla Model 3 Actually On Original Schedule?
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/03/02/tesla-model-3-actually-original-schedule/
 

Ken Voss

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#9
Putting this here, ‘cause if you look back of what the article describes, there was a lot of it over the years.

IMHO, excellent article on Cleantechnica that replaces actual progress with Model 3 start & production ramp-up within original projections from many years back. Eye-opening perspective if you ask me which makes me want to applaud T≡SLA efforts even more!! :cool:

Is Tesla Model 3 Actually On Original Schedule?
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/03/02/tesla-model-3-actually-original-schedule/
Excellent article that puts everything into perspective. Once you realize that Tesla's initial plans for 500,000 cars per year was originally planned for 2020 and was aggressively pushed forward to 2018 only after the high Model 3 demand was known less than 2 years ago it shows that not only is Tesla achieving its "original" pre-launch model 3 plan it is going to significantly beat it. If you are anxious about waiting for your car, take a chill pill and read this article, it will make you feel better.
 

KarenRei

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#10
I'm sure we're all tired of all of the concern trolling you see in the media and on forums about the Model 3. In response to this, CleanTechnica has been a real breath of fresh air as of late.

Case 1: "What Can Tesla Learn From Chevy Bolt Production Ramp?"
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/02/26/can-tesla-learn-chevy-bolt-production-ramp/

They compare the Model 3 production ramp, from tooling up through full production, quarter-by quarter and even month-by month. Spoiler alert: it's the *Bolt* that comes out poorly in the comparison, not the Model 3.

Case 2: "If A Tesla Pattern Has Emerged, What Does That Mean For Model 3?"
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/03/03/tesla-pattern-emerged-mean-model-3/

Past concern trolling about earlier Tesla models is compared to the present concern trolling about the Model 3.

Case 3: "Is Tesla Model 3 Actually On Original Schedule?"
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/03/02/tesla-model-3-actually-original-schedule/

Tesla's schedules over time are compared to the actualized production schedule, showing that Model 3 production has been in line with or ahead of almost all of Tesla's predictions from the past several years - only going off track with the most recent predictions.
 

DrPhyzx

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#11
I'm sure we're all tired of all of the concern trolling you see in the media and on forums about the Model 3. In response to this, CleanTechnica has been a real breath of fresh air as of late.

Case 1: "What Can Tesla Learn From Chevy Bolt Production Ramp?"
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/02/26/can-tesla-learn-chevy-bolt-production-ramp/

They compare the Model 3 production ramp, from tooling up through full production, quarter-by quarter and even month-by month. Spoiler alert: it's the *Bolt* that comes out poorly in the comparison, not the Model 3.
I guess, but GM was never trying to push their normal timeline and roughly met all their claims for the rollout of the Bolt without any significant hiccups or quality issues. They did a normal model rollout, complete with nearly a year of large numbers of pre-production cars produced with the production tooling on the completed line collecting millions of miles. Tesla accelerated the Model 3 by cutting out some of these steps, and now we're seeing the result.
 

KarenRei

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#12
I guess, but GM was never trying to push their normal timeline and roughly met all their claims for the rollout of the Bolt without any significant hiccups or quality issues. They did a normal model rollout, complete with nearly a year of large numbers of pre-production cars produced with the production tooling on the completed line collecting millions of miles. Tesla accelerated the Model 3 by cutting out some of these steps, and now we're seeing the result.
The general claim is "Tesla can't mass-produce vehicles, only the major automakers can do that". Yet the Bolt took longer to tool up to produce a far smaller number of vehicles.

Yes, Tesla's "start delivering early, update often" process** leaves them more open to scrutiny - with traditional automakers, everything is hidden behind the scenes until the line is running at high production levels. But the fundamental aspect is, they built a higher-production line, faster than GM did, even accounting for the delays.

** I would, however, argue that a "deliver early, update often" process results in a better product, as you get feedback sooner. It's only a negative from a PR point of view.
 
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mig

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#14
Well.... Tesla has most innovative production ramp up program, pay 50K to be part of Beta testing! ;)
IMO, when I got my Model 3 in Feb, it did not feel like I was beta testing. The only major issue is the phone key on Android, but I just use the key card while still in my wallet and it is no worse than the BMW this car replaced (which didn't have keyless entry, ridiculous for a so-called luxury vehicle)

Everything else has worked flawlessly (started at version 2018.4.8). Contrast this with the first year of my BMW i3 ownership, where the vehicle would mysteriously fail to charge at night, and due to limited range, I would have to miss work. BMW blamed everything but the car, including my EVSE, which had never had a problem for 3 year Leaf lease. Magically the problem "went away" after the car got a software update (for which I had to bring the car in to dealership, BTW), but still BMW would not admit it was their issue.

So, YMMV, but in my specific experience leasing the BMW i3 felt more like beta testing.
 

DrPhyzx

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#15
The general claim is "Tesla can't mass-produce vehicles, only the major automakers can do that". Yet the Bolt took longer to tool up to produce a far smaller number of vehicles.

Yes, Tesla's "start delivering early, update often" process** leaves them more open to scrutiny - with traditional automakers, everything is hidden behind the scenes until the line is running at high production levels. But the fundamental aspect is, they built a higher-production line, faster than GM did, even accounting for the delays.
My point has nothing to do with the "general claim" you seem to be ascribing to me, which I never made. That's a "straw man" argument. It's not that Tesla can't mass produce vehicles, it's that they made some unwise choices in how they planned to do it.

Yes, the Bolt took longer to "tool up" because they went through full prototyping for all tooling, then refinement, then installation of production tooling on the final line with testing, then producing a test fleet with the production tooling, then putting millions of miles on that test fleet to find issues, followed by tweaks to the tooling and production process. Those things take time, but they ensure a smooth ramp with no production "hiccups" (like we are now seeing) and higher initial quality (which most people do care about even if you don't). Tesla was trying to save time and money, but as with the X, this often proves penny wise and found foolish -- "An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure."

Tesla has been producing the Model 3 for 6 months, and hasn't made half as many as GM made Bolts in a year. Meanwhile, GM's best month for the Bolt (Dec.) saw 50% more deliveries than Tesla's best month with the Model 3 (last month).
I disagree with you that these numbers are something to be excited about, especially considering the fact that Tesla plans the scale of Model 3 production to be 10X what GM plans for the Bolt. Again... you can make fun of GM for their puny plans, but that's not the point.

I would, however, argue that a "deliver early, update often" process results in a better product, as you get feedback sooner. It's only a negative from a PR point of view.
Again... I don't agree that this flies for the mass market. People don't want their major purchases to be "works in progress". Just ask Apple.
 

DrPhyzx

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#16
IMO, when I got my Model 3 in Feb, it did not feel like I was beta testing. The only major issue is the phone key on Android, but I just use the key card while still in my wallet and it is no worse than the BMW this car replaced (which didn't have keyless entry, ridiculous for a so-called luxury vehicle)

Everything else has worked flawlessly (started at version 2018.4.8). Contrast this with the first year of my BMW i3 ownership, where the vehicle would mysteriously fail to charge at night, and due to limited range, I would have to miss work. BMW blamed everything but the car, including my EVSE, which had never had a problem for 3 year Leaf lease. Magically the problem "went away" after the car got a software update (for which I had to bring the car in to dealership, BTW), but still BMW would not admit it was their issue.

So, YMMV, but in my specific experience leasing the BMW i3 felt more like beta testing.
Really? No keyless entry? Even the lowly Bolt has that. I agree that BMW seems to have delivered pretty poor value in the i3.
 

mig

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#17
Really? No keyless entry? Even the lowly Bolt has that. I agree that BMW seems to have delivered pretty poor value in the i3.
I think keyless entry was only offered in higher trim models of the i3. Homelink was also frustratingly not included on the vehicle I leased.
 

garsh

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#18
Tesla has been producing the Model 3 for 6 months, and hasn't made half as many as GM made Bolts in a year.
Bolt's first 8 months of deliveries (starting Dec 2016):
579, 1162, 952, 978, 1292, 1566, 1642, 1971
Model 3's first 8 months of deliveries (starting July 2017):
30, 75, 117, 145, 345, 1060, 1875, 2485

(reference: https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/)
Caveat: Model 3 deliveries are estimates. But it looks like Tesla has been able to ramp up production much more quickly than GM. Sure, GM has a lead in total cars produced, but that won't last for much longer at these rates.
 

KarenRei

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#19
My point has nothing to do with the "general claim" you seem to be ascribing to me, which I never made. That's a "straw man" argument.
My original post was not a reply to you, and thus by definition could not have been a straw man against your argument. My original post was very obviously concerning the claims that are most commonly made against Tesla - the same as the article I linked. You decided to twist it into an argument that wasn't being made. And that is the definition of a straw man argument. You took an counterargument to the most common argument against Tesla concerning mass production (that Tesla can't mass produce, can't scaleup, that major automakers can do it better), and pretended that it was about something else entirely, then struck down your straw man. And when I corrected you about the topic at hand, you decided to act like *I* was the one changing the topic. I'm sorry, but that doesn't fly. You don't get to retrofit my original post - and the article I linked - to be about something entirely different than what they actually were about.

Tesla has been producing the Model 3 for 6 months, and hasn't made half as many as GM made Bolts in a year
GM started tooling to make Bolts in late 2015 / early 2016, while Tesla started doing the same for Model 3 in April-June 2017, 1 1/2 years later. In the past 3 months, Tesla has delivered 5420 Model 3s, and in the past 6 months, 6027. 1 1/2 years ago, Bolt monthly delivery figures for the six months ending 1 1/2 years ago were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0. respectively. If Tesla had scaled up at the rate that Bolt had, they wouldn't start deliveries for another couple months.
 

DrPhyzx

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#20
My original post was not a reply to you, and thus by definition could not have been a straw man against your argument.
I didn't say that your original post contained a straw man, which makes the above (surprise!) another straw man. Tiresome.

As to your original post and the arc of the thread since then, the premise was that Tesla has hit a home run here and that GM failed because they did exactly what manufacturers always do when they roll out a new model. I disagree and have offered up my reasons. It's as simple as that.

GM started tooling to make Bolts in late 2015 / early 2016, while Tesla started doing the same for Model 3 in April-June 2017, 1 1/2 years later. In the past 3 months, Tesla has delivered 5420 Model 3s, and in the past 6 months, 6027. 1 1/2 years ago, Bolt monthly delivery figures for the six months ending 1 1/2 years ago were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0. respectively.
This is complete rubbish - production doesn't begin when the production tooling is installed and exercised for the first time. That's the point. Production of the Bolt began in Nov. 2016. The first 6 months ended in May 2017 then, by which time they had delivered 6500 cars. I will allow that this is roughly 1/3 fewer than Tesla in their first six months with the Model 3, but Tesla had their sights set 10X higher and this is their single-minded focus as a company right now. I expected better than this, and the story's not over yet.

I'll never understand why some people think being a Tesla fan and being critical of some decisions they make are mutually exclusive. You've evaded addressing my point: Yes, GM started tooling very early relative to production, because that's how you avoid problems when you start production. Tesla may very well have made a mistake here.