Speculation on those June/July delay emails

He Chen

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#1
This is pure speculation but I was thinking about those June/July delay emails and I think Tesla intentionally invited more people than they knew they could fulfill under the normal 3-6 week timeframe in order to accurately control when they hit the 200K mark. Here is what I mean. All the numbers are purely made up to illustrate my idea. Let’s say that Tesla already delivered the 190Kth car. They need to know when they will hit 200K as accurately as possible. So they invite 20K people to configure. They know that usually the take rate for invites is higher than 50%. So over 10K invites will turn into configurations. Now, let’s say Tesla is gaming/planning to stretch out the $7500 tax incentive to next quarter. They obviously can’t fulfill those 10K orders in the normal timeframe of 3-6 weeks. They invited more than usual just so they can accurately track and plan when they hit 200K. Now that they have the remaining 10K configurations, they can separate them into 3 groups. Normal delivery, June delayed, and July delayed. Normal + June would equal less than 10K, so as to drag out the 200Kth car. And then anyone after 10K would be July delayed. This is assuming Tesla is trying to drag out the 200Kth car to July 1st or after. Maybe I’m right, maybe I’m wrong. Or more likely, I am just bored and have too much free time. Thoughts?
 

EBMCS03

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#2
Something like that. Along those lines.

I just want my car and wish Tesla was more honest. I feel they are just as bad as a triditional dealership. Scumbags.
 

Artdept

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#3
I think they sent out all the invites as a cash grab right before earnings report. Similar to the wat they sold huge amounts of batteries to boring co at the same time.
Elon knows fully well what he can and cannot deliver on. I feel they they knew there would not be able to keep their last promise of invites but the sent them out a way because they need all the interest free deposit money they can get.
 

BigBri

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#6
It's probably two fold. It's increasing the duration of the tax credit. It's also exactly as they said, the volume of orders. Lots of people are waiting for the cheap config or AWD/performance. Wouldn't surprise me at all if people afraid of losing the tax credit decided to jump on the higher end config thus increasing order time. They can't really anticipate that.
 
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#8
Something like that. Along those lines.

I just want my car and wish Tesla was more honest. I feel they are just as bad as a triditional dealership. Scumbags.
Wow, that's quite a sentiment! Unlike traditional dealerships, they didn't try to upsell you on additional warranties, a different model, etc. in person for an hour before you could agree on a car, and then they also won't take 3 hours for paperwork, again trying to wheel and deal you, etc. If there's a little bit of an issue, I'm super thankful it is before I have come to the store and wasted time I could have used elsewhere.
 

KFORE

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#9
FWIW, I was in the July camp and just got a VIN today.

I think they double estimated incorrectly. I think your initial thought is spot on, but after they sent those emails and then announced AWD, I think they underestimated how many people would defer for AWD.

I have a feeling most July folks will get their VIN within the next 2-3 weeks.
 

EBMCS03

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#10
Wow, that's quite a sentiment! Unlike traditional dealerships, they didn't try to upsell you on additional warranties, a different model, etc. in person for an hour before you could agree on a car, and then they also won't take 3 hours for paperwork, again trying to wheel and deal you, etc. If there's a little bit of an issue, I'm super thankful it is before I have come to the store and wasted time I could have used elsewhere.
No. This only takes 2 years and X months and taking my money with no car to deliver and making me lose my interest rate lock. Far worse. Dealership. I’m done in 4 hours max.