Road to Full Self-Driving (FSD)?

Idur

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#1
Ok, so far I have gathered the following about Full Self-Driving (FSD) on de Model 3:
  • it is an option that costs 3000 USD, on top of the Enhanced AutoPilot (EAP) that costs 5000 USD
  • EAP is a thing now, so you get EAP when you get the car
  • FSD is not a thing yet, there are issues that need to be worked out before you can get it in your car
So, do you expect features that will be available only to people who buy FSD, before the self-driving is a reality?
What could these features be?
Or do you think any such features would be available under EAP also?
 

SoFlaModel3

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#2
Ok, so far I have gathered the following about Full Self-Driving (FSD) on de Model 3:
  • it is an option that costs 3000 USD, on top of the Enhanced AutoPilot (EAP) that costs 5000 USD
  • EAP is a thing now, so you get EAP when you get the car
  • FSD is not a thing yet, there are issues that need to be worked out before you can get it in your car
So, do you expect features that will be available only to people who buy FSD, before the self-driving is a reality?
What could these features be?
Or do you think any such features would be available under EAP also?
Tesla claims FSD is ready and the hold up is regulatory bodies. To that end there is no saying how long until its ready...
 

garsh

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#5
You've got me. I literally have no clue. It could have been an Elon tweet, a presentation, or completely made up in my mind; but I could swear I've heard that claim that its "ready".
I don't recall that having been said. They intend to demonstrate FSD with a coast-to-coast, parking lot to parking lot drive of a vehicle by the end of this year, but I haven't heard of any updates lately.
 

SoFlaModel3

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#6
I don't recall that having been said. They intend to demonstrate FSD with a coast-to-coast, parking lot to parking lot drive of a vehicle by the end of this year, but I haven't heard of any updates lately.
I will try to find the reference...
 

gmxeon

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#7
As a side note, the full self driving only costs $3,000 if purchased immediately with the car, the Model S estimator suggests the price increases to $4,000 if it is activated after the car is purchased.

In regards to FSD being ready, Elon did say on Twitter many months ago that he expected FSD to be ready for testing in 3 months and for sure be available in 6 months, he has already overrun that timeline (I think he said that December last year? Perhaps I'm remembering wrong). That being said, since Autopilot 2.0 is still struggling, I speculate FSD is still quite a while away... Especially with the concerns brought forth with "Autopilot Hardware 2.1", which might suggest 2.0's hardware is not quite capable of FSD (but a spokesperson said if 2.0 hardware cannot FSD then an upgrade to FSD-capable hardware will be provided no-charge).
 

Vin

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#8
As a side note, the full self driving only costs $3,000 if purchased immediately with the car, the Model S estimator suggests the price increases to $4,000 if it is activated after the car is purchased.

In regards to FSD being ready, Elon did say on Twitter many months ago that he expected FSD to be ready for testing in 3 months and for sure be available in 6 months, he has already overrun that timeline (I think he said that December last year? Perhaps I'm remembering wrong). That being said, since Autopilot 2.0 is still struggling, I speculate FSD is still quite a while away... Especially with the concerns brought forth with "Autopilot Hardware 2.1", which might suggest 2.0's hardware is not quite capable of FSD (but a spokesperson said if 2.0 hardware cannot FSD then an upgrade to FSD-capable hardware will be provided no-charge).
I think FSD is practically ready now, technically, but I think the issue will be regulations and when/how each state will start allowing it. Not sure if it's going to be Federal or state, thought they were aiming for Federal but someone will know better than I.
I think the laws will open up more in 1-2 years based on what Elon said in one of his Ted talks, but it's definitely coming and will be exciting.
Personally, I'm waiting even if it's $1,000 extra to do that, and one reason is I don't want to be an early "beta tester" for that until I'm more comfortable with even EAP, which I've never experienced yet.
 

Idur

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#9
I will try to find the reference...
I intentionally started this thread in the rumour mill. But it would be nice to know where the rumours come from.

[...] Elon did say on Twitter many months ago that he expected FSD to be ready for testing in 3 months and for sure be available in 6 months, he has already overrun that timeline (I think he said that December last year? Perhaps I'm remembering wrong). That being said, since Autopilot 2.0 is still struggling, I speculate FSD is still quite a while away... [...]
Over on a board that is more space related, they call it the Musk time dilation factor. Basically time goes slower when you are closer to Elon Musk. (like time goes slower closer to massive galactic bodies)
 
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Guy Weathersby

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#10
Mr Musk has stated that the cars (with the hardware 2) will need to log about 3 billion miles to be ready for full self driving. I have not seen any indication that he has revised this view. My best guess is that currently we are at a few hundred million. A good start. If the ramp for Model 3 goes we will probably hit 3 billion about the end of 2018. My guess is that regulatory approval might go pretty smoothly after that.
 

Idur

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#11
Because of the unknowns, I think it is less interesting when full FSD arrives.

I'm interested how it will arrive.
  • full FSD ar once, nothing before.
  • first on highways, then secondary roads outside the city, then urban driving
  • first short distance low speed (eg. get car from parking lot without driver), then a quiet street at 50 km/h, …
  • first with heavy supervision required, increasingly less attention required by "driver"
 

EVfusion

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#13
... we will probably hit 3 billion about the end of 2018. My guess is that regulatory approval might go pretty smoothly after that.
I hope you are right but I fear that it will be a long slow and difficult process.
  • There will be fast jurisdictions that sort out the complex legal issues quickly and that quickly push through enabling legislation.
  • There will be slow jurisdictions that take years to arrive at a position.
  • And sadly there will be vested interests that attempt to stop the whole process.
 

Topher

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#14
They intend to demonstrate FSD with a coast-to-coast, parking lot to parking lot drive of a vehicle by the end of this year, but I haven't heard of any updates lately.
And that was explicitly caveated to NOT mean ready.

There are states where FSD is legal already. If the software were ready, people would be demonstrating it in one of those places.

Thank you kindly.
 

EVfusion

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#16
... There are states where FSD is legal already. ...
Which States?

Do they have law in place that would enable ANY FSD car to drive within the State or is it a more limited arrangement that allows controlled testing of FSD vehicles on public roads?

If it is new FSD legislation, can you give me a link to the relevant legislation (even one example would be useful)?
There will be many jurisdictions around the world that, to help model their own, will be interested in seeing early examples of legislation that enables operation of FSD vehicles on public roads. I had been thinking a thread recording such legislation as it occurs would be really useful.

To assist in formulating new legislation, the Australian Capital Territory (equivalent of DC) is funding a study into human/self driving interactions. The study, using a Tesla, is being done under special (but restricted) provisions of existing legislation. My earlier post refers. https://teslaownersonline.com/threads/autonomous-car-tech-thread.1926/page-7#post-24424
 

Model34mePlease

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#17
As I understand it, EAP can be considered Self-Driving level 2. I think even the challenge of self-driving coast-to-coast could be considered only level 4. Level 5 would seem a very long way off, more the realm of autonomous robots not running on 4 tires.

I'm hoping that Tesla releases intermediate driver assistance. EAP doesn't seem a long way from following a GPS set route, even including non-automated stops at SCs, but with a driver behind the wheel and paying attention. I'm considering even paying for FSD, but not if I don't get anything until Tesla achieves the ultimate. What do we know about what Tesla has done in the past and what they might be considering in the near-term future?

As to states with legislation, this is from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autonomous_car

 

EVfusion

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#18
... There are states where FSD is legal already. ...
The question I raised related to FSD legislation - that is the legislation that Tesla warns us, when offering the FSD option, is necessary before FSD can be used legally.
... As to states with legislation, this is from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autonomous_car ...
Thank you. Michigan enacted four bills last December that make provision for self driving vehicles subject to testing and approval. Although further approvals would be required but it would appear to provide the necessary framework.
Apart from Michigan, none of these States have FSD legislation (in the sense that Tesla are referring to).
California is, as one might expect, relatively advanced. My understanding is that they are at the stage of having proposed regulations under consideration for the deployment of autonomous vehicles for public operation. Public submissions closed 25 April 2017 and 81 submissions were received. The current proposed regulations are the result of several years of drafting and public consideration. From a quick read I understand the proposed regulations only relate to testing on public roads and would not be relevant to you or me.
https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/dmv/detail/vr/autonomous/auto
 
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kzod

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#19
I would expect an AP1 level of progress. Sadly AP2 still doesn't match those standards. By the end of next year it will help bad drivers become good drivers. Will not surpass a good focused driver ever, but most of us are never 100% focused. Always take our eyes off to check the radio, hot girls, etc. But as far as Autonomously working ubers you can forget about it for this vehicle. Governments will mandate Car 2 Car communications before they allow these things to roam independently. So, don't expect to nap in the car.