Relationship Between Charging Speed and Adoption

Dr. J

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#41
That would not be the popular talking point in the automotive media. And even from Elon Musk himself, who is trying to spout that buying an ICE car today is a bad idea, because it will be very hard to sell in the near future. Because, you know, the ICE market is going away.

Then you have proponents of the green new deal, which is gaining heavy momentum in the Democratic ranks, that thinks that by 2025, the majority of all cars sold will be EV's.

Yes, there are people who believe this and are trying to make it happen.

Do I believe them? No. Including Elon. Its way, way harder than people think. But you never know the way things are going these days.




Current government? I agree. But there are a lot of young people who think that AOC makes sense....
I think AOC (mostly) makes sense, and I think there's a decent (though not >50%) chance by 2025 the majority of new cars sold in the US will be EVs. I still think all the rest of what I wrote applies. And I'm a Baby Boomer.
 

AutopilotFan

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#42
No, electricity is most certainly not everywhere it needs to be in order to have EV's be the dominant form of personal transportation. And that's not going to change any time in the next 5-10 years.
No, it's not everywhere YET. But there are companies that are looking towards that side of the problem, and marketing it to apartments as a value-add to get better tenants. Long range EVs make it easier on anyone who can't charge where they store their car at night.

https://evercharge.net/blog/ev-charging-for-condos/
https://www.chargepoint.com/drivers/apartments-and-condos/
https://electrek.co/2018/08/13/electric-charging-condo-appartment-rve-dcc/
 

PNWmisty

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#43
My auto usage is pretty typical and I already find keeping my EV's charged up is less hassle than it was to keep my gas cars fueled. Faster charging would not benefit me except once in a blue moon. If I'm away from home and need to use a Supercharger, I'm ready for a break and the charging is already so fast my car might be incurring idle fees before I've finished my meal/drink/rest stop. That's a little inconvenient if I have to go move my car - it reminds me of the 5 minute fill-up at a gas station that is so short I need to stand there and wait. Not fun.
 

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#44
2. Above - It takes longer than 5 minutes for gas and food.

I agree with others that the time I save by charging at home more than offsets the time supercharging.
I did a round trip from DFW to Pflugerville a few weeks ago selling my left over Dodge Magnum parts. Charged at Waco so I could drive to Pflugerville and back then charged in Waco to be able to make it home. Pretty easy. About 400 mi round trip.
 

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#45
It's a (mostly) free country. Gas stations are all over the place because there is profit to be made to support them. Scarcity of gas stations was a problem a long time ago when the market was small.
As the popularity of electric cars grows, there will be more places to charge them.
 

Feathermerchant

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#46
On the previous page there was a long response about a large number of people in Houston and LA renting their living quarters. If there are so many renters, why do they need to drive so far to work?
I understand the barrier to moving because you are an owner but it seems renters should be more mobile. Just curious.
 

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#47
I had noticed this thread a week or so back and chuckled thinking it was silly.

Then - road trip ... and damn ... we had to hustle through dinner as the car was charging too fast!

Can you tell if idle fees will be charged? Says that they may. But I couldn’t tell for sure. There were 20 (!!!) superchargers and there were 2 being used. I would guess no idle fee ... but ....
 

MelindaV

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#48
I think there's a decent (though not >50%) chance by 2025 the majority of new cars sold in the US will be EVs.
I think your estimate may need to be pushed out at least 5 years, probably realistically 10+. automakers have already designed and planned for the vehicles they will sell in 2025, and to be anywhere near 50%, the majority of auto makers would have to already be on-board with actually selling EVs, not just tossing a couple of re-engineered models into their lineup that have hybrid powertrains for a token amount of electrified offerings. That would mean all the auto commercials you see would be on EVs and how theirs is better than the competition's EV.
Even Toyota, with the first widespread hybrid, has never released an EV. we are now 22+ years past their Prius being released and they have been content with staying just with hybrids and full ICE.
 

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#49
I had noticed this thread a week or so back and chuckled thinking it was silly.

Then - road trip ... and damn ... we had to hustle through dinner as the car was charging too fast!

Can you tell if idle fees will be charged? Says that they may. But I couldn’t tell for sure. There were 20 (!!!) superchargers and there were 2 being used. I would guess no idle fee ... but ....
No idle fees if SC is less than 50% occupied.
 

AutopilotFan

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#50
On the previous page there was a long response about a large number of people in Houston and LA renting their living quarters. If there are so many renters, why do they need to drive so far to work?
I understand the barrier to moving because you are an owner but it seems renters should be more mobile. Just curious.
Because the rents near where they work are not affordable. Houston has a large footprint and things are still disorderly due to the hurricane and flooding -- they may have lost a lot of housing stock. LA is famous for its terrible traffic -- there are many reasons but some are because people work in areas where the housing is expensive.

Another reason is that non-EV owners don't understand how things work with an EV. They think they'll need to charge as often as they need to buy gas now, and at the same sort of places where they buy gas. They don't think about eating lunch at a Supercharger once every two weeks, or to look for restaurants & hotels with destination chargers and turn their recreational time into charging time. They don't realize that a 110v charge -- a regular plug -- will charge their electric car overnight every night if their commute is under 50 miles a day. Or they don't think they can come to an agreement with a landlord about the use of the electric outlet near their car.

And there are people out there who are actively spreading misinformation about all of this, trying to make them afraid to buy an EV.
 

Dr. J

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#51
I think your estimate may need to be pushed out at least 5 years, probably realistically 10+. automakers have already designed and planned for the vehicles they will sell in 2025, and to be anywhere near 50%, the majority of auto makers would have to already be on-board with actually selling EVs, not just tossing a couple of re-engineered models into their lineup that have hybrid powertrains for a token amount of electrified offerings. That would mean all the auto commercials you see would be on EVs and how theirs is better than the competition's EV.
Even Toyota, with the first widespread hybrid, has never released an EV. we are now 22+ years past their Prius being released and they have been content with staying just with hybrids and full ICE.
[This probably should be a new thread.]
Well, I said a good but not >50% chance of most new cars sold in the US being EVs by 2025. It's definitely some point in time (ICEVs are dinosaurs) and I would put the odds of the switch over year on a probability curve between 2024 and 2030. That is still widely optimistic compared to most estimates. The wildcard is ride share and what that does to overall car sales. Annual ICEV car sales may have already peaked. My assumption is that traditional automakers are going to get their tails in a crack because they're moving too slowly to electrification.

This 2017 NY Times article is both wildly optimistic in general and pessimistic about Tesla:

"But there are signs of a shift. Tesla and Volkswagen each have plans to produce more than a million electric vehicles per year by 2025. On Wednesday, Volvo announced that it would phase out the traditional combustion engine and that all of its new models starting in 2019 would be either hybrids or entirely battery-powered."

It looks like Tesla will hit 1 million EVs worldwide by, what 2021? Half here and half in China. (My guess.)

Toyota is betting on fuel cell cars, which will probably never work due to lack of infrastructure. They will become a niche PHEV car company. Hard to imagine, huh?

I envision an extreme disruption of the auto industry coming soon, along the lines of 2009, as it staggers toward electrification. The only auto industry stock I invest in (and only in small amounts) is Tesla.
 

AutopilotFan

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#52
I think your estimate may need to be pushed out at least 5 years, probably realistically 10+. automakers have already designed and planned for the vehicles they will sell in 2025, and to be anywhere near 50%, the majority of auto makers would have to already be on-board with actually selling EVs, not just tossing a couple of re-engineered models into their lineup that have hybrid powertrains for a token amount of electrified offerings. That would mean all the auto commercials you see would be on EVs and how theirs is better than the competition's EV.
There's something wrong with how traditional carmakers are approaching EVs. Chevrolet put out a useful, usable, and beloved EV in California over 10 years ago -- then they took them all back and destroyed them. If any of the big 3 had really wanted to produce a good EV, they'd already be doing it. They don't want to. EVs are too disruptive to their distribution and service networks. The petroleum industry doesn't want them to.

All their cars seem to have some annoying flaw that could have been avoided. Even the Chevy Bolt, which seems so great doesn't have adaptive cruise control and I can't figure out why -- it's got all the hardware for it.

Even Toyota, with the first widespread hybrid, has never released an EV. we are now 22+ years past their Prius being released and they have been content with staying just with hybrids and full ICE.
If Toyota had released an EV, I'd probably be driving it right now. I used to be a huge Toyota fan and would consider their cars before any other manufacturers. But somehow the Prius was the end of their innovation. They made the first really good hybrid and then they just stopped innovating. When I compared all their 2018 offerings to the Model 3, they all bored me. They weren't enough better than my old 2005 Prius to justify the 13 years they had to get there.

EVs outsell ICE cars in Norway now (2019 Q1) and that will only get better as the charging infrastructures improve. People there look at you funny if you buy a gas-burner for anything but a specific commercial purpose. You someday won't be able to keep a car in Beijing if it burns gas. Other countries are setting dates by which you'll no longer be allowed to sell new ICE cars. It is better to guess early than to be late with this.
 

Bokonon

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#54
[This probably should be a new thread.]
The effect of charging speed on EV adoption has been present in this thread from the first post, so I renamed the thread accordingly. Yeah, the discussion is now expanding to the general market forces influencing EV adoption, but that seems more like a natural evolution to me than an off-topic diversion. So, carry on! :)
 

JimT

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#55
Regarding the ability for an apartment owner to gather information and bill tenants for charging, there's a very inexpensive product that's easy for an electrician to install that totalizes the kilowatt hours consumed on an individual power circuit being used for specific tenant charging. The monitor costs $16.98 on amazon (baytite AC 80 to 260 v, 100A bayite pzem-061 lcd display). It includes a current transformer loop that the electrician routes the wiring to be monitored through. Add a 120vac power source (120vac here in the usa) and the monitor is ready to go. As stated in the model information, it will work on alternating voltage circuits ranging from 80vac to 260vac and up to 100 amps, so it seems to cover any tesla charging system wiring I can envision worldwide. My install cost was less than $30 total since I was able to wire it myself and I fed the monitor with a dedicated 15amp single pole breaker which ran about $8. I installed the monitor to have a independent source of energy monitoring to back up the information provided by the car and teslafi.
 

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MelindaV

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#57
But in many places it is illegal to resell electricity. Our technology always seems to outpace our legal/governmental system.
I was just going to say the same.
This is why the supercharger fees in most states are by the minute, because those states don't allow the reselling of electricity, so what Tesla is charging in those states is a 'parking' fee, where you happen to get free electricity while 'parked'.
 

Feathermerchant

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#58
I think that is something that will eventually be changed. The sooner the better.
FWIW my former company is a 'wires company' in that they own the electrical system from the generator to the meter (and are regulated) but the generation and sales of electricity is deregulated (Texas). They wanted to use batteries to improve reliability of the grid but the regulator (Texas PUC) says batteries are generators and so a regulated company cannot have batteries.

There's still some fixin to be done.
 

Needsdecaf

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#59
On the previous page there was a long response about a large number of people in Houston and LA renting their living quarters. If there are so many renters, why do they need to drive so far to work?
I understand the barrier to moving because you are an owner but it seems renters should be more mobile. Just curious.


Because the rents near where they work are not affordable. Houston has a large footprint and things are still disorderly due to the hurricane and flooding -- they may have lost a lot of housing stock. LA is famous for its terrible traffic -- there are many reasons but some are because people work in areas where the housing is expensive.
Bingo. Rents increase a lot more when you're IN the city vs. in the suburbs.

Plus, look at my situation I wrote in that post...things change. Life changes. Heck, just a year ago, I had a 14 mile a day commute, plus about once a weak to the main office, 20 miles each way. Now, I have a new job that's a minimum of 90 miles a day each day. Plus site visits, so I'm averaging about 600 miles a week. Imagine we had been in a place without 240 available for a charger, and I already had an EV like an i3. I'd have been hosed. Hell even in my house, if I had an i3, my wife and I would have had to switch.

BTW, would never move because 2 kids in great schools and the wife's job is similarly close to my old commute. So I'm the one who sucks it up and pays for the good of the three of us, but I don't mind. And I'm glad that Telsa makes a long range EV and I can charge it!