Q4 numbers are in

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How many Model 3 will T≡SLA produce in 2018?


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    116
  • Poll closed .
Joined
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#61
ten minutes after you probably, and i'm feb-april :) But alas, we want the standard battery, unless my husbands car craps out sooner rather than later :)
Are you West coast or East coast? I'm in the Bay area which presumably gives me some advantage.
 

SoFlaModel3

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#62
I don't think you are being overly optimistic. I am also in south Florida, line waiter, but Model S owner, and I just got my invitation to configure today, which means that I "could" have my Model 3 by the end of January if I would configure today. I think these production figures are great news, with most of the bottlenecks fixed, but I'm sure that Seeking Alpha, etal will spin it differently.
The only thing I’d say to the contrary is that the estimates probably slip more the further away you are in priority. Given that you’re an owner your estimate literally just makes it to the end. There are a lot more people in the next estimate range and 2 months burned out of the 3. It really comes down to how big the delay really is.
 

LucyferSam

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#63
What do you guys think about the people who reserved online on 3/31? Like 5-10 min after it opened up....? Are we in the same pool as the line waiters? Or still an unknown?
I reserved online as soon as it was possible and have always had the same estimates as line waiters (and have now configured and am awaiting delivery being scheduled). Given that I think it's pretty much straight order of reservations with line waiters obviously being able make their reservations at an earlier time than online.
 

LucyferSam

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#65
You’re a non owner?
No, owner. I was only addressing the in-line vs. online in terms of timing. Once it gets to non-owners I assume it will follow a similar pattern of approximate order of reservation combined with geography rather than that in-line people get some extra boost beyond just having been able to reserve earlier in the day than online.
 

Archer

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#66
No, owner. I was only addressing the in-line vs. online in terms of timing. Once it gets to non-owners I assume it will follow a similar pattern of approximate order of reservation combined with geography rather than that in-line people get some extra boost beyond just having been able to reserve earlier in the day than online.
Right. I believe the argument was for non-owners as owners all fall within the same bucket. Non-owners it’s a little different. I personally don’t believe it’s the same as owners but time will tell.
 

SoFlaModel3

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#67
I reserved online as soon as it was possible and have always had the same estimates as line waiters (and have now configured and am awaiting delivery being scheduled). Given that I think it's pretty much straight order of reservations with line waiters obviously being able make their reservations at an earlier time than online.
I agree, but geography is a factor as well for the line waiters.

I ordered at 10:15 am EST. The first California line waiters ordered a good 2-3 hours later.
 

SoFlaModel3

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#69
Agreed. Hence why CA owners got theirs before other owners.
Sorry, I left out a part. That may follow suit for online orders or maybe not, they may like having things spread around at that point.
 

Brett

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#70
What do you guys think about the people who reserved online on 3/31? Like 5-10 min after it opened up....? Are we in the same pool as the line waiters? Or still an unknown?
Based on the delivery estimator - we are behind them. Most (if not all) Line Waiters seem to have estimates of Dec-Feb. I reserved within minutes after the online opened up and I'm Jan-Mar.
I reserved online as soon as it was possible and have always had the same estimates as line waiters (and have now configured and am awaiting delivery being scheduled). Given that I think it's pretty much straight order of reservations with line waiters obviously being able make their reservations at an earlier time than online.
I agree with @LucyferSam that it's just a order of reservation thing. I'm a non-owner in CA that ordered online literally within 5 seconds of the reservation page being available. I have always been in the same bucket as most CA non-owner line-waiters (currently Dec-Feb). My guess is that I am at the tail end of that bin, i.e. more likely to slip into March then the actual line-waiters who are ahead of me in order. What I don't know is if I will get to configure before a non-owner line-waiter outside of CA. My guess is that most but not all line-waiters in the US will go before me.

I have a theory that it will work based on shipments to delivery centers and not on individual places in line. Tesla has been sending almost all of the cars to the main CA delivery centers but as production ramps up instead of delivering more cars to CA they will continue sending the same number of cars to CA and send the remainder to delivery centers in other sates. For example as production ramps to 1500-2000 cars per week, maybe ~500 cars go to CA, ~100 to New York, ~100 to Texas, ~100 to Florida, etc, etc and each delivery center sends out invites to people in their zone (in reservation date order) until they deliver the cars they have in stock. The rate at which each state gets deliveries would be based on how many outstanding orders are left and the delivery center capacity in the region. The benefit of this is it allows them to produce cars faster then can be delivered in one area (e.g. CA) and do a pretty fair job of distributing cars in approximately the order they were ordered without causing logistical nightmares.
 

Ken Voss

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#72
I agree, but geography is a factor as well for the line waiters.

I ordered at 10:15 am EST. The first California line waiters ordered a good 2-3 hours later.
So this is the question we are trying to resolve isn't it. If someone in California posted their reservation at 10:15 PST (3 hours later than you) will you be invited to configure first because you are 3 hours ahead or will the person in California be invited first simply because they were a day 1 line waiter in California?
 

SoFlaModel3

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#73
So this is the question we are trying to resolve isn't it. If someone in California posted their reservation at 10:15 PST (3 hours later than you) will you be invited to configure first because you are 3 hours ahead or will the person in California be invited first simply because they were a day 1 line waiter in California?
From what we’ve seen so far with owner priority ... it should move west to east.

That should hold for line waiters.

I wonder what happens for online reservations.
 

chojn1

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#74
From what we’ve seen so far with owner priority ... it should move west to east.

That should hold for line waiters.

I wonder what happens for online reservations.

This is the distribution pattern we have so far from the spreadsheet:

1) July - Employee/family in all of US (no regional preferences)
2) November - Owners who reserved in store on 3/31 in California
3) December - Add owners who reserved online on 3/31 in California
4) January - Add owners who reserved in store or online on 3/31 in the rest of the US (no regional preferences and no west to east transition)

Note that Tesla did not wait for any group to complete delivery before adding on the next group.

My guess is February will add owners in the US with no reservation date, reservation location, or regional preferences.
 
Last edited:

SoFlaModel3

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#75
This is the distribution pattern we have so far from the spreadsheet:

1) July - Employee/family in all of US (no regional preferences)
2) November - Owners who reserved in store on 3/31 in California
3) December - Add owners who reserved online on 3/31 in California
4) January - Add owners who reserved in store or online on 3/31 in the rest of the US (no regional preferences and no west to east transition)

Note that Tesla did not wait for any group to complete delivery before adding on the next group.

My guess is February will add owners in the US with no reservation date, reservation location, or regional preferences.
I could be a good test for your theory.

I placed a second reservation today (with owner priority). If theory holds (and I share it), my reservation should be invited before the first non-owners.
 

JohnMon

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#76
I'm wondering about brand new reservations. Say, for example, a non-owner in New Jersey was around the 200,000th to reserve. Someone in California now makes a new reservation - let's say he's 500,000th. Would the new reservation from California come first?
Similarly for an early reservation from Canada. Would a recent reservation somewhere in the US come first?
Would be curious to know if the stated deadline back in 2016 meant anything.
 

chojn1

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#77
I could be a good test for your theory.

I placed a second reservation today (with owner priority). If theory holds (and I share it), my reservation should be invited before the first non-owners.
There is too much overlap in the groups for you to determine your priority status.
Right now, for example, there are some owners in Vermont and Tennessee who reserved online and have received their invites before some owners who reserved in store in California.

So if they add the non-owner group before finishing all the owners' reservations, you will not be able to tell if you have priority.
 

SoFlaModel3

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#78
There is too much overlap in the groups for you to determine your priority status.
Right now, for example, there are some owners in Vermont and Tennessee who reserved online and have received their invites before some owners who reserved in store in California.
That fits with an earlier theory that I had actually — moving cars east sooner may make sense. Deliveries become the bottleneck and spreading them around can help with that.
 

JohnMon

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#79
That fits with an earlier theory that I had actually — moving cars east sooner may make sense. Deliveries become the bottleneck and spreading them around can help with that.
Quite a bit more cars were built than delivered. It could be purposely building up inventory, but if they want to clear the car lots in a hurry, they would probably transport them by train, which can move a lot more cars than trucks. And one would think trains would be used for the markets furthest away, such as the east coast.
 

smak

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#80
No, owner. I was only addressing the in-line vs. online in terms of timing. Once it gets to non-owners I assume it will follow a similar pattern of approximate order of reservation combined with geography rather than that in-line people get some extra boost beyond just having been able to reserve earlier in the day than online.
I don't think there's enough owners that reserved outside the West to make a difference between line waiters and first day online reservations in ability or place their order.

I think they'll all be around the same time.

Now when it gets to non owner California line waiters vs online orders the first day, I think that's a huge amount, and definitely will see a difference in ordering time.