Q4 numbers are in

  • SUPPORT THE SITE AND ENJOY A PREMIUM EXPERIENCE!
    Welcome to Tesla Owners Online, four years young! For a low subscription fee, you will receive access to an ad-free version of TOO. We now offer yearly memberships! You can subscribe via this direct link:
    https://teslaownersonline.com/account/upgrades

    SUBSCRIBE TO OUR YOUTUBE CHANNEL!
    Did you know we have a YouTube channel that's all about Tesla? Lots of Tesla information, fun, vlogs, product reviews, and a weekly Tesla Owners Online Podcast as well!

How many Model 3 will T≡SLA produce in 2018?


  • Total voters
    116
  • Poll closed .

tracksyde

Active member
Joined
Apr 19, 2017
Messages
33
Location
Tustin, CA
Tesla Owner
Model 3
Country
Country
#2
1,550 Model 3s delivered in Q4
+860 in transit

2,425 Model 3s manufactured in Q4

and this tidbit:

"During Q4, we made major progress addressing Model 3 production bottlenecks, with our production rate increasing significantly towards the end of the quarter. In the last seven working days of the quarter, we made 793 Model 3's, and in the last few days, we hit a production rate on each of our manufacturing lines that extrapolates to over 1,000 Model 3's per week. As a result of the significant growth in our production rate, we made as many Model 3's since December 9th as we did in the more than four months of Model 3 production up to that point. This is why we were not able to deliver many of these cars during the holiday season, just before the quarter ended. Model 3 deliveries to non-employee customers are now accelerating rapidly, and we're confident our customers will love them."
 

ng0

Top-Contributor
Joined
Apr 11, 2017
Messages
996
Location
San Diego
Tesla Owner
Model 3
Country
Country
#6
1,550 Model 3s delivered in Q4
+860 in transit

2,425 Model 3s manufactured in Q4

and this tidbit:

"During Q4, we made major progress addressing Model 3 production bottlenecks, with our production rate increasing significantly towards the end of the quarter. In the last seven working days of the quarter, we made 793 Model 3's, and in the last few days, we hit a production rate on each of our manufacturing lines that extrapolates to over 1,000 Model 3's per week. As a result of the significant growth in our production rate, we made as many Model 3's since December 9th as we did in the more than four months of Model 3 production up to that point. This is why we were not able to deliver many of these cars during the holiday season, just before the quarter ended. Model 3 deliveries to non-employee customers are now accelerating rapidly, and we're confident our customers will love them."
Thanks for clarifying! I was thinking the same thing. A production rate of 1000 cars per week is not too bad! Better than I was expecting at this point.
 
Joined
Dec 13, 2017
Messages
24
Location
California
Tesla Owner
No
Country
Country
#7
My bad, read it to fast... looks like we might be safe for another quarter though of Federal Tax credit? I was trying to find the site that tracks the quarter by quarter US deliveries.. anyone got that link?
 

ng0

Top-Contributor
Joined
Apr 11, 2017
Messages
996
Location
San Diego
Tesla Owner
Model 3
Country
Country
#8
My bad, read it to fast... looks like we might be safe for another quarter though of Federal Tax credit? I was trying to find the site that tracks the quarter by quarter US deliveries.. anyone got that link?
According to Electrek Tesla delivered 100,000 cars in 2017. I'm not sure how many they delivered before that, but they should be able to hit that 200,000 number pretty quickly.
 

Prodigal Son

Top-Contributor
Joined
Sep 23, 2017
Messages
440
Location
SF Bay Area
Tesla Owner
Model 3
Country
Country
#9
I can't take this much failure any more. It took too long and too much to get myself feeling remotely positive about this company last time they announced delays and I'm not going to subject myself to the agony of this again. See you guys on the flip side, maybe we'll meet again in the future.
 

Dangermouse

Active member
TOO Supporting Member
Joined
Apr 27, 2016
Messages
140
Location
Raleigh, NC
Tesla Owner
Model 3
Country
Country
#12
For a little perspective, Model 3 production at 1000/week is now roughly equal to current Model S or Model X production.

100k S + X in 2017 / 2 lines running for S +X = 50k per year for either / 52 weeks = around 1,000. I know the actual numbers are slightly different, but still cool.
 

ng0

Top-Contributor
Joined
Apr 11, 2017
Messages
996
Location
San Diego
Tesla Owner
Model 3
Country
Country
#13
I can't take this much failure any more. It took too long and too much to get myself feeling remotely positive about this company last time they announced delays and I'm not going to subject myself to the agony of this again. See you guys on the flip side, maybe we'll meet again in the future.

What failure? production ramp up to 1000 cars per week is pretty dang good! You gotta give 'em a couple weeks to deliver the cars! Either way, if that's what it takes for you to give up, o well good luck with that! Joined this forum in September? Interesting...
 

ng0

Top-Contributor
Joined
Apr 11, 2017
Messages
996
Location
San Diego
Tesla Owner
Model 3
Country
Country
#14
For a little perspective, Model 3 production at 1000/week is now roughly equal to current Model S or Model X production.

100k S + X in 2017 / 2 lines running for S +X = 50k per year for either / 52 weeks = around 1,000. I know the actual numbers are slightly different, but still cool.
Great perspective! Didn't think of it in those terms and really helps wrap your head around the numbers. Still nowhere near burning through the backlog of reservations, but if they're running at 5000/week for half the year, that's still a lot of cars!
 

Michael Russo

MSM Team Founder, Midnight S≡R≡NITY rider
Moderator
TOO Supporting Member
Joined
Oct 15, 2016
Messages
5,821
Location
Pau, France
Tesla Owner
Model S
Country
Country
#16
I can't take this much failure any more. It took too long and too much to get myself feeling remotely positive about this company last time they announced delays and I'm not going to subject myself to the agony of this again. See you guys on the flip side, maybe we'll meet again in the future.
Humble reminder you are within a 100 miles radius of the plant (going out on a limb here... ;)) and still likely to see your car delivered within 3-4 months... when some here may still be looking at 18-24 months more patience (think of our friends in RHD countries...).
I truly hope for your sake you did not actually pull the plug. Otherwise I feel for you when in future months you’ll run into dozens per day in the area... :confused:
 

Brokedoc

Kick-Gas Contributor
Joined
May 28, 2017
Messages
1,715
Location
New York
Tesla Owner
Model X
Country
Country
#17
I am keeping tab on the running total of Tesla US sales here:

Model 3 invites spreadsheet

Seems to me that these delivery numbers are perfect, if the plan is to push the 200k limit to Q2 2018.
My estimates are very close to yours but you seem to have much more up to Aug2017 (140,535 vs 127,000 industry estimate). How do you estimate your numbers? Either way, we're still predicting 2018Q2 as the critical 200k threshold.
 

SoFlaModel3

T≡SLATUNITY
Moderator
TOO Supporting Member
Joined
Apr 15, 2017
Messages
10,083
Location
Florida
Tesla Owner
Model 3
Country
Country
#18
According to Electrek Tesla delivered 100,000 cars in 2017. I'm not sure how many they delivered before that, but they should be able to hit that 200,000 number pretty quickly.
Don’t forget that’s worldwide, not just US which is all that counts toward the credit phase out.
 
Joined
Dec 13, 2017
Messages
24
Location
California
Tesla Owner
No
Country
Country
#19
My estimates are very close to yours but you seem to have much more up to Aug2017 (140,535 vs 127,000 industry estimate). How do you estimate your numbers? Either way, we're still predicting 2018Q2 as the critical 200k threshold.
Let's hope! Where will the official # come from? VIN's registered? Tesla or the Federal Gov't?

Seems like we are definitely safe for Q1 and likely through Q2, maybe even into Q3 since it extends for 1 quarter after? if we are at ~165k leading into Q1.

Say Q1 deliveries are ~15k Model X and 15k Models (half to the US is 15k) then Model 3's at 1k/week is another 12k with the last few weeks maybe at 2500 call it 20k even - that just hits 200k by the end of Q1? if they hold off on the 200,000 until April 1st They'll be safe through the summer. I can see Tesla doing this as it not only helps Model 3's but also the pricier S and X sales.
 

BigBri

Top-Contributor
Joined
Jul 16, 2016
Messages
1,083
Location
Toronto, Ontario
Tesla Owner
Model 3
Country
Country
#20
Think reality is setting in! Reality isn't so bad. If they can hit that 5k per week by the end of Q2 we still could see 130k Model3s in the latter half of the year alone. I'm needing some additional time to save anyway as I spent half the money I had set aside for the car haha.