Probably very few options on Model 3

cle

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#1
We learn some things for the Model 3 with the new options and pricing for the S and X.

As we see on the Model S and X, separate options are disappearing and bundled.
Also the statement that Model 3 will be a far less luxurious car, will mean that lots of features will be reserved for S and X models, to protect these models and make the 3 as affordable as possible.

My thoughts on the options:

  • Small battery (55 or 60kwh) only on RWD version (same as in the S, where they also only have RWD in the smallest battery option), with at least 238 miles of EPA range (it will be more than the Chevy Bolt).
  • Dual motor option will be linked with the bigger battery (70 or 75kwh), and will be introduced 4- 6 month after initial release of the model 3
  • Only 2 interior colours, and a choice of artificial-leather or cloth seats.
  • Two wheel-rim options (17" and 19")
  • Probably not even a metal roof option or panoramic roof untill the first 400.000 cars are produced, full glass roof will be standard (less changes and less robots in the factory line needed).
  • No options like winter package, air-suspension, bioweapon-defense mode (this is for the S and X only)
  • Lots of software options (automatic distance cruise controll, self parking, autopilot and self driving, but maybe even more)
  • Towbar and maybe a roofrack option
Because there are only few options, the price range will be limited from $35.000 to $55.000, leaving a price gap of $14.500 to the base line Model S.

Elon mentioned a mean $42.500 price for the model 3. That is probably the RWD and smaller battery car with full self driving enabled. That would make the self driving option $1.000 cheaper than in the S and X.

Supercharger V3 with auto-docking will likely be added in the future, but after the model S and X have it.

My 2 cents...
 

garsh

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#2
I mostly agree
Two wheel-rim options (17" and 19")
18" and 20" would be my guess, given that the prototypes at the reveal had 20" wheels.
No options like winter package
It will have a winter package (heated seats, & steering wheel). While that's a luxury in an ICE, it's a necessity for decent range in cold climates in a BEV.
 

Michael Russo

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#3
We learn some things for the Model 3 with the new options and pricing for the S and X.

As we see on the Model S and X, separate options are disappearing and bundled.
Also the statement that Model 3 will be a far less luxurious car, will mean that lots of features will be reserved for S and X models, to protect these models and make the 3 as affordable as possible.

My thoughts on the options:

  • Small battery (55 or 60kwh) only on RWD version (same as in the S, where they also only have RWD in the smallest battery option), with at least 238 miles of EPA range (it will be more than the Chevy Bolt).
  • Dual motor option will be linked with the bigger battery (70 or 75kwh), and will be introduced 4- 6 month after initial release of the model 3
  • Only 2 interior colours, and a choice of artificial-leather or cloth seats.
  • Two wheel-rim options (17" and 19")
  • Probably not even a metal roof option or panoramic roof untill the first 400.000 cars are produced, full glass roof will be standard (less changes and less robots in the factory line needed).
  • No options like winter package, air-suspension, bioweapon-defense mode (this is for the S and X only)
  • Lots of software options (automatic distance cruise controll, self parking, autopilot and self driving, but maybe even more)
  • Towbar and maybe a roofrack option
Because there are only few options, the price range will be limited from $35.000 to $55.000, leaving a price gap of $14.500 to the base line Model S.

Elon mentioned a mean $42.500 price for the model 3. That is probably the RWD and smaller battery car with full self driving enabled. That would make the self driving option $1.000 cheaper than in the S and X.

Supercharger V3 with auto-docking will likely be added in the future, but after the model S and X have it.

My 2 cents...
@cle , overall, I feel those are reasonable assumptions, to be confirmed within a couple of months now.

One thing I don't see like you is the absence of a 55D (or 60D) if there are only two battery packs, after the announced 6-9 months of course. One thing is to not make AWD available on the S, with 3-4 battery packs, another would be not to give that choice we only 2 to choose from...
 

BigBri

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#4
I think we'll see what Trevor suggested in that there will be options packages. I don't think it'll be as feature limited as you say. Air suspension and cold weather are pretty much a given. Bioweapon possibly not. That's a huge filter and could be expensive. I don't think I've heard someone say what it costs to replace by Tesla service yet but it's probably not cheap.
 

Topher

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#5
I think you have it exactly backwards. Tesla doesn't need to protect their top-of-the-line cars (they are doing just fine even with the impending introduction). They need to sell Millions of Model 3s.

And have some facts wrong.

* The Model S 75 IS available with AWD. (It seems likely to me that the 3 will have that option as well).
* The wheel options look from measurements taken, to be 18 and 20.

Other things:

* Of course winter package will be available. Tesla needs some way for an electric car to not totally suck in cold climates, That means warming people, not air. The only other option is front heated seats and steering wheel standard, and the kids get to freeze.
* Metal roof might be gone, witness the recent changes to the model S. Pano roof will be available as soon as it is ready.
* Leather seems an odd thing to leave off. It is mostly completely independent and the margin is high.
* Once you have two options for things like interior color, adding a third, or ninth is easy.
* I still (completely irrationally) think Elon will want to cram bio-weapon defense mode in. It will make Chinese sales far easier for one thing.
* Everyone makes WAY too much of Elon's off the cuff guesses on average price (once 42k, once 45k). It's not as if he has any way to know what options people will choose (especially when that list keeps changing). I do think he expects 80-90% take rate on self-driving, which I think is too high.
* Going to all the trouble of offering two wheel sizes, why wouldn't they offer two COLORS, especially at those prices?

Thank you kindly.
 

garsh

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#6
The wheel options look from measurements taken, to be 18 and 20.
Did somebody actually try to calculate the Release Candidate wheel size from photos? Or get a closer look at one to read the tire label?
 

UncleT

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#7
Air suspension and cold weather are pretty much a given.
Because the air suspension is no longer available on the S75, it is definitely in danger of not making it to the 3, especially the smaller battery. I can't see them making it available on a base 3 and not on S75.
Small battery (55 or 60kwh) only on RWD version (same as in the S, where they also only have RWD in the smallest battery option)...
Not sure if you stated this as clearly as you could have, but I can see this happening, and that will upset a lot of people if the RWD is not available with the larger battery..
 

teslaliving

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#8
Im hoping the wheel size (one of them at least) is 19" so they're interchangeable with my S. I already have 2 sets of 19" wheels...
 

garsh

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#9
Im hoping the wheel size (one of them at least) is 19" so they're interchangeable with my S.
Assuming that Tesla keeps the same lug pattern as the S, then wheel diameter isn't that important. You're going to want to make sure that the 3 and S use comparable wheel offsets. And most importantly, you'll want the outer tire diameters to be pretty close, for wheel-well clearance as well as keeping the speedometer accurate.

The Model 3 prototypes had 235/35ZR20 tires on front and 275/30ZR20 tires on the back. The outer diameter would therefore be 26.5".

The Model S uses 245/45R19 tires. The outer diameter would therefore be 27.7". So 1.2" larger in diameter. You *may* be able to get away with putting those on a 3, but you probably won't want to. You'd want a smaller diameter tire, like 215/45R19
 

teslaliving

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#10
Assuming that Tesla keeps the same lug pattern as the S, then wheel diameter isn't that important. You're going to want to make sure that the 3 and S use comparable wheel offsets. And most importantly, you'll want the outer tire diameters to be pretty close, for wheel-well clearance as well as keeping the speedometer accurate.

The Model 3 prototypes had 235/35ZR20 tires on front and 275/30ZR20 tires on the back. The outer diameter would therefore be 26.5".

The Model S uses 245/45R19 tires. The outer diameter would therefore be 27.7". So 1.2" larger in diameter. You *may* be able to get away with putting those on a 3, but you probably won't want to. You'd want a smaller diameter tire, like 215/45R19
I thought there were issues with different tire sizes and how that affected how the car figured out the speed of the car. I'm not much into all the specs, but it sounds like its unlikely i'll be able to share the sets of wheels.
 

MelindaV

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#11
I thought there were issues with different tire sizes and how that affected how the car figured out the speed of the car. I'm not much into all the specs, but it sounds like its unlikely i'll be able to share the sets of wheels.
that is the overall tire diameter (as @garsh noted, is about an inch difference). But you can put any tire on a 19" wheel.
IE a car with stock 16" wheels can upgrade to 17" wheels (with the same lug/offset) with a lower profile tire. both would have tires with the same diameter/circumference.
 

SoFlaModel3

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#12
As @garsh and @MelindaV said, it's all about rolling diameter. If that remains the same you have no issues with your speedometer and for that matter the odometer as if your speed is off, then the mileage you have driven is also off.
 

Topher

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#13
If that remains the same you have no issues with your speedometer and for that matter the odometer as if your speed is off, then the mileage you have driven is also off.
One is left wondering when such things will be measured with GPS instead of a sensor on a changeable and always varying tire size.

Thank you kindly.
 

Gabzqc

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#14
I am excited of the possibility that Tesla will put next generation hardware in the Model 3, not tell anyone, then enable it after the S and X have had upgrades... totally possible!
 

Red Sage

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#15
As for the air suspension thing... It could be that Tesla noted people who choose the Air Suspension for Model S tend to have a minimum spending threshold. If they don't intend to go over a maximum amount, they are less likely to choose the option. So they probably just moved the air suspension option above their perceived threshold for Model S.

That does not mean that air suspension will not be available for Model ☰. It just means that Production for Model S has been streamlined, so that everyone buying the 75 kWh version will be getting the coil springs. There will be more people getting the air suspension on Model ☰ than all Model S and Model X combined.

--------

So far with Model S and Model X, Tesla's threshold for satisfying 'some' Customers has been at least 5% uptake. I would not be surprised to see that move to at least 10%, and possibly as high as 20%, when it comes to most features offered for Model ☰. That would make it a lot easier to predict and control the acquisition of components to build the majority of cars as the majority of buyers would choose to configure them.

Think of it this way... 5% is one of every twenty orders. 10% is one of every ten orders. 20% is one of every five orders. 50% is one of every two orders.

I would love an option of having a tan carpet for both the cabin, as well as lining the frunk and trunk. I doubt very much that Tesla will offer it. They'll probably only offer black/anthracite grey for carpet throughout the vehicle. Hence, 100% of all cars come the same way, regardless of other configuration options. One out of every single order placed is a lot easier to manage.

If only 'some' people like the fully tan interior, less than one in five buyers, it could go away as an option before I got my car. I could live with it, if I had to... But I really would prefer to not have to deal with a black hole interior that required I use a flashlight even during daylight to find things in the car.

Tesla has to make decisions of this sort for every single car they offer.
 
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