Prediction: Model S/X production will switch to design refresh version on ~25 Jun and the switch will be announced on ~18 Jul 2019

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Troy

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I predict the following timeline for Model S/X design refresh:

Around 25 Jun 2019, Model S/X production will switch to the refreshed design
Around 18 Jul 2019, Tesla will announce that they have made the switch

Other details and commentary:
  • New Model S/X will support Supercharger V3
  • New Model S/X will have Track Mode
  • Model S/X design refresh will include Model 3 style center console + touchscreen + air vents
  • The new horizontal touchscreen in Model S/X will be dead center between the front seats just like Model 3. This has the following advantages:
    • Passengers can watch movies too
    • When driverless FSD is supported, passengers can see navigation, time left to destination, music playlist etc on the screen
    • There won't be any need to create a vertical version of the firmware just for the low volume Model S/X. After the Model Y, Model S/X sales will drop to below 10% of Tesla sales.
    • There is no need to create a different version for right-hand-drive cars when the screen is exactly in the center
  • To reduce complains about S/X screen switching from vertical to horizontal, they might mention that the horizontal screen will be better to watch movies on when they add video playback support and free Wi-Fi at Superchargers
  • The new S/X battery will use 2170 cells
  • The battery capacity will remain at 100 kWh
  • There will be a minor range increase because of weight reduction. S100D range could increase from 335 mi to 350 mi
  • I think there is now an urgency to make the switch sooner rather than later because Model S/X not supporting Supercharger V3 is like a slap in the face to new S/X buyers.
  • I'm 80% sure of the timing. This is related to Tesla's quarterly production calendar. In the last few days of June, they will start making EU cars that will be delivered in Sep. Therefore if the switch is to happen in Q3, production must switch in the last few days of June. I don't know the exact date. Therefore I wrote around 25 June 2019. It could be 24 June or 26 June but I think it will be the last few days of June because as soon as it's too late to deliver cars in the US at the end of each quarter, production switches from US to EU. Similarly, the announcement could happen on 17 July or 19 July. I don't know the exact date. 18 July is a best-guess. By the way, check out my other prediction here about Autopilot which turned out to be OK.
 
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GDN

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Impressive on the timeline. A lot of information trickling out, but after the hit because of reduction in Q1 deliveries I was afraid this refresh was a ways off, they need it to hit soon. I was hoping for a body style update as well so it would be a 100% refresh, exterior look, interior, battery and motors.
 

Johnston

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Is the Model 3 display in the exact center now? I would think being right in the middle might cause issues for shorter drivers trying to reach the other end of the display. Letting passengers watch movies should not be a priority at all over convenience for the driver.
 

TrevP

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Agree on all points. It’s a matter of when, not if
 

garsh

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Is the Model 3 display in the exact center now?
Yes.
That way, there are fewer changes required for RHD markets.
I would think being right in the middle might cause issues for shorter drivers trying to reach the other end of the display.
There aren't too many reasons why you'd need to reach over to the other side of the display while driving. Wipers are on the left side, for instance.
 

RoadToLevel5

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What's the prediction on pricing (lower, higher, same) and battery packs/range?

I think cheaper because of simpler interior and some shared parts and/or battery production with M3.

I think we could higher range than current offering.
 

garsh

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What's the prediction on pricing (lower, higher, same) and battery packs/range?

I think cheaper because of simpler interior and some shared parts and/or battery production with M3.
It should definitely lower Tesla's costs. I'm not sure how much they'll want to lower prices though.

I'll predict that they'll maintain the base S price well above the price of a loaded Model 3 Performance.
 

splatseacex

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  • The new S/X battery will use 2170 cells
  • The battery capacity will remain at 100 kWh
  • There will be a minor range increase because of weight reduction. S100D range could increase from 335 mi to 350 mi

Any thoughts on the 2170s using Maxwell's dry electrode technology and boosting range to 400 miles?
 

Feathermerchant

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I think the dry electrode is a manufacturing process that promises to reduce costs and increase production rate. I do not think it exists to increase battery capacity. Besides, you don't need more than 300 mile range anyway. Even though you think you may.
 

pjfw8

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I think the dry electrode is a manufacturing process that promises to reduce costs and increase production rate. I do not think it exists to increase battery capacity. Besides, you don't need more than 300 mile range anyway. Even though you think you may.
In the summer in California I agree. In the winter or on a very windy day or in the mountains 300 quickly becomes 200 or even 180.
 

GDN

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I think the dry electrode is a manufacturing process that promises to reduce costs and increase production rate. I do not think it exists to increase battery capacity. Besides, you don't need more than 300 mile range anyway. Even though you think you may.
You are likely right that we don't need it, but with the winter we had even in TX this year our 310 mi range dropped to 200 when you throw in the cold, the wind and some rain. If you want to succeed I think 400 has to be the sweet spot for a car and I'll go on record saying that if you ever want a pickup to win over the real pickup crowd the battery better be capable of 400 miles of real driving and rated at 600 miles if you really want to use it as a pickup pulling a trailer full of cattle or other work usage. The real range on that would likely drop to 200 miles or less.

Something I haven't researched or looked up or may not be known yet is the battery capacity on the semi's. That will give us insight for the pickups and what the possibilities really are.
 

Troy

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@splatseacex, I think the 2170 cells are at 275 Wh/kg energy density and Maxwell's dry electrode technology could increase it by 10% to 300 Wh/kg based on page 5 here where it says they completed proof of concept that achieves 300 Wh/kg. The PDF was released on 19 December 2018. I think this will happen later but not at this time. I expect a modest range increase. My guess is 350 miles for S100D assuming the battery changes to 2170 cells and 375 miles assuming the motors change too.
 
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Feathermerchant

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@300 miles range, I left my house near DFW airport with about 90% charge and drove to Huntsville SC skipping the Corsicana SC then on to my brother's house skipping Channelview SC. Return trip I drove from friends apt to Huntsville skipping N Houston SC and then home skipping Corsicana SC.
So I am only hitting about every other SC and able to make the above trip with range to spare. That's why I said I expect 300 miles is fine. I'm really hoping Rivian joins the Supercharger system.
 
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Troy

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Today's motor and drivetrain change is not the design refresh. Model S/X design refresh will include Model 3 style center console + horizontal touchscreen + digitally controlled air vents. I still expect it to happen. Motor & drivetrain was not even on my list in the opening message.
 

RoadToLevel5

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If a design refresh is imminent, I would hate to buy an S/X with just the drivetrain improvements. Say, the new design rolls out in 3 months, there will be a batch of vehicles with the new drivetrain and the old interior (exterior). I would not want to be a owner of that vehicle, but maybe some will at the right price.
 

Flatsix911

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If a design refresh is imminent, I would hate to buy an S/X with just the drivetrain improvements. Say, the new design rolls out in 3 months, there will be a batch of vehicles with the new drivetrain and the old interior (exterior). I would not want to be an owner of that vehicle, but maybe some will at the right price.

It really depends if you like the new horizontal center screen design... some may prefer the current design with the improved motor and drivetrain. ;)
 

SalisburySam

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...you don't need more than 300 mile range anyway. Even though you think you may.
Yeah, no. Totally disagree. As others mentioned, 300 miles of range is rarely 300 miles of delivered range depending on conditions and driving style. For me, more range means less fuel stops regardless of how fast or convenient the SuperCharger is and regardless of whether I need a potty break. Yes, longer ranges today mean more weight and much higher upfront acquisition costs, but I’ve not ever really “enjoyed” a fuel stop, gasoline or electrons. At least in the gasoline world, the stops are relatively quick and refueling sites are ubiquitous. On trips, I much rather stop at a site to enjoy something, and a better meal than junk food, and not worry the fuel level.