Planning for Model Y production site

jman

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#2
Yes still VERY interested in the Model Y, already have my master plan in tact....get model Y after Model 3 and NEVER go back to ICE vehicles again !!!!! Have solar panels and in about 7 years will be paid off and getting energy from the glorious sun debt free !!!
 

Cloxxki

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#6
And the China thing then? Just for batteries to supply such a Model Y plant?
I though they'd want to make cells and assemble cars on the same premises next time?
 

Michael Russo

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#7
And the China thing then? Just for batteries to supply such a Model Y plant?
I though they'd want to make cells and assemble cars on the same premises next time?
I don't think we need to view these two things as exclusive. T≡SLA will definitely need local manufacturing of both batteries and cars in Asia to supply the regional market. China remains a very likely scenario particularly if you want a share of the fast growing & potentially yuuuge market there!
 

Cloxxki

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#8
I don't think we need to view these two things as exclusive. T≡SLA will definitely need local manufacturing of both batteries and cars in Asia to supply the regional market. China remains a very likely scenario particularly if you want a share of the fast growing & potentially yuuuge market there!
Indeed.
But with Model Y now apparently its own platform...2 lines in one Chinese factory? Surely they'd not import Model 3 from the US?
Or...they might re-design Model 3 under the skin to be more like Model Y with its much simplified wiring. First make it happen for Model Y and the Chinese 3's, then convert the American 3's to further reduce cost and increase production speed.
After all, the chassis may need to be proprietary for Model Y, it doesn't mean it needs to get wiring and such upgrades that won't be retrofittable to Model 3.
 

11thIndian

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#11
Awesome catch Michael!

And the China thing then? Just for batteries to supply such a Model Y plant?
I though they'd want to make cells and assemble cars on the same premises next time?
Elon has said that the current Gigafactory will supply batteries and other components for Model Y (like the Model 3), at least for now. Here's his quote from the 2017 Shareholder's meeting,

"I think the existing Gigafactory will probably supply the bat – will in fact, will supply the battery pack and drivetrains and motor and power electronics for the Model Y. But the Model Y vehicle plant will be a new plant, essentially a new Gigafactory that we are going to figure out the exact location of."
 

Cloxxki

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#12
Awesome catch Michael!



Elon has said that the current Gigafactory will supply batteries and other components for Model Y (like the Model 3), at least for now. Here's his quote from the 2017 Shareholder's meeting,

"I think the existing Gigafactory will probably supply the bat – will in fact, will supply the battery pack and drivetrains and motor and power electronics for the Model Y. But the Model Y vehicle plant will be a new plant, essentially a new Gigafactory that we are going to figure out the exact location of."
Fair enough, but that implies "the" Model Y factory will be in the US, which I can understand. So much automation, you don't save much or at all by going Asia just to import.

Eventually they'll want a second Fremont that is not a one trick pony, I suppose.
An Asian factory should make cellls, as well as Model 3+Y. S and X might have the margin to keep shipping them from Fremont.

But does Tesla want to stagnate S/X production? Fremont is already fully booked. Perhaps the US factory for Model Y will have to take over Model 3 duties at the same time, to free up Fremont to do more S/X and other projects?

It won't be easy, but it would be nice to be able to make multiple models on a single super-automated line. Not build a whole new factory for a new car each time. The hard part would not to program the robots perhaps, but get parts for 3-4 different models to the production line and not slow it down.
 

garsh

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#13
The hard part would not to program the robots perhaps, but get parts for 3-4 different models to the production line and not slow it down.
Yep, that's the problem with having a single line for all models. Also, one model will inevitably take a little longer to build than the others, and production will have to slow down to allow that slowest-build model.
 

11thIndian

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#14
Fair enough, but that implies "the" Model Y factory will be in the US, which I can understand. So much automation, you don't save much or at all by going Asia just to import.

Eventually they'll want a second Fremont that is not a one trick pony, I suppose.
An Asian factory should make cellls, as well as Model 3+Y. S and X might have the margin to keep shipping them from Fremont.

But does Tesla want to stagnate S/X production? Fremont is already fully booked. Perhaps the US factory for Model Y will have to take over Model 3 duties at the same time, to free up Fremont to do more S/X and other projects?

It won't be easy, but it would be nice to be able to make multiple models on a single super-automated line. Not build a whole new factory for a new car each time. The hard part would not to program the robots perhaps, but get parts for 3-4 different models to the production line and not slow it down.
According to Elon quotes, the eventual plan for Fremont after the proposed expansion is to have 1,000,000 cars/yr capacity.
So I don't think it's so much about stagnating S and X capacity at Freemont, since those high-cost vehicles do have a theoretical market limit- if they're making 100,000 per year now, what's the realistic global market demand for $100,000+ luxury sedans and SUVs? We don't yet know what constant demand for Model 3 will be after they work thru the backlog of reservations, but even if global sales for S & X were ultimately double what they are now (making them the most popular luxury vehicles in the world) then I think the remaining 800,000 vehicle capacity at Fremont would be sufficient for Model 3 in the short term, especially if the plan is to add capacity by building a Chinese plant to handle worldwide demand.

Different vehicle types sell better/worse across the globe, so perhaps a Chinese factory could have both Model 3 and Model Y lines going once they figure out what relative demand is for each in the regions that factory world service.

Ultimately Tesla is going to be doing a juggling act building capacity to meet demand for some time- once they incorporate the other high volume seller Tesla Pickup, I think it will be the mid 2020's before Tesla has reached any kind of supply/demand equilibrium with all the vehicles that they're currently making or expecting to release in the next 2-3 years.
 

Cloxxki

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#16
They have lot more land in sparks, NV.
Elon is looking to do cell to pack to auto manufacturing, all under one roof. I think we will see auto manufacturing at NV. May be starting with semi trucks.
Makes sense to use that land. But perhaps the roads/rail are not quite ready for such expansion just yet? I don't know the actual infra to Sparks.
The semi would be nice to build there for sure. It's battery-intensive per unit and being so tall, full autonomy may be available a year or more before the family cars? The trucks could drive themselves to their customers. And haul some drive units on trailers while they're going in the direction of Fremont or another assembly line anyway.

The often mentioned pick-up will be presented after the semi, so I suppose will also be built later. Would the same logic apply to the NextGen Roadster or would a smaller volume production be ready to start sooner?
Pickups will be thirsty, and I doubt they can price them similarly to S/X and sell a lot. So they'll hve to discount the battery packs effectively. orr will pickup buyers accept a 200 mile typical range, even if it takes a costly 80kWh or more?
 

Cloxxki

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#17
Even though the market for expensive family EV's will get more players, Tesla should be able to increase sales of S and X.
I'd forgotten about the expansion to 1,000,000 cars (1 factory, wow, compare that to current fleet after some 10 years), but yes, that should allow them to keep ramping up S&X while Model 3 goes to 700,000-800,000. with so much experience there, they may also take on special projects in smaller volume such as NextGen Roadster. More a marketing tool than a sales project, perhaps? I'd use the Roadster to introduce a new design language. to me, every new Audi looks like an R8. And that's a positive association.
 

SwaggerWagon

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#18
I don't think we need to view these two things as exclusive. T≡SLA will definitely need local manufacturing of both batteries and cars in Asia to supply the regional market. China remains a very likely scenario particularly if you want a share of the fast growing & potentially yuuuge market there!
Yeah, exactly, I think there's going to be Gigafactories built in China and Europe to support those markets. Have you ever heard the statistics on how often container ships get lost at sea? It would be a sad day a ship full of Tesla's hit the bottom of the ocean...

http://www.actuarialeye.com/2014/03/30/how-many-ships-disappear-each-year/
 

GDN

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#19
I've been wondering where they'd build the model 3 - searched and found this thread. So much has happened since 2017, even additional lines in tents at Fremont just to get the Model 3 cranked up. They are still working on increasing production in each of those lines and say they will, but does Fremont really have the capacity for another model like the Y at the volumes they talk about?

What else is going on at the Gigafactory in NV? That building is huge, isn't there likely room there for a car line or two? Or better yet, Tesla has learned with major growing pains that they may not be the best at assembly. Why not find a partner or two to actually build. They've done incredible things with engineering and design, but get bogged down with assembly. I would think Toyota would be all over assembling for someone else. Even Ford has a good plant in MX where the Fusion was being built. With it's soon demise, I've not heard what else they might build there. I honestly would love to see and hear that production would remain in the US, but eventually some of these other guys will start to close the gap a bit on Tesla and there will be pressure to reduce costs and build more economically. My gut tells me that CA is NOT that place. Too many regulations around the paint issues as well. I can't imagine them being able to remain in CA for assembly, not for everything anyway.