Pick Up Before Model Y?

Dan Detweiler

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#1
Another hypothetical situation...

The semi reveal at the end of October...

Big semi pulls on stage pulling a full size trailer. Everyone marvels at the design, specs, and general wonderfulness that surrounds the production of a real life usable all electric semi. Elon goes through his normal presentation with lots of graphics and charts showing how it will change the face of product delivery as we know it.

When he's all done..."by the way"...back of the trailer opens up and out pops the new Tesla pickup. Place goes bonkers.

Possible?

Dan
 

SuperMario

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#4
well, I was thinking, coming out with a new roadster now would slow down the advent of sustainable energy
 

SoFlaModel3

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#5
I put even money on Model Y or New Roadster being in the attached container!
 

MelindaV

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#6
Another hypothetical situation...

The semi reveal at the end of October...

Big semi pulls on stage pulling a full size trailer. Everyone marvels at the design, specs, and general wonderfulness that surrounds the production of a real life usable all electric semi. Elon goes through his normal presentation with lots of graphics and charts showing how it will change the face of product delivery as we know it.

When he's all done..."by the way"...back of the trailer opens up and out pops the new Tesla pickup. Place goes bonkers.

Possible?

Dan
You did see this, right? At least from the one so saw something on the test track, it was closer to a truck than a Y...
https://teslaownersonline.com/threads/future-tesla-on-the-fremont-test-track.4944/unread
 
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#7
Which potential market is bigger...pickup or small SUV? I'm asking, I really don't know the answer to that question.

Dan
I think in the American market small SUV would be in higher demand. Many in the pickup truck community like their diesel trucks and probably will take a lot to get them to consider an EV. I think more in the crossover community would be more susceptible to switching to an EV.
 

garsh

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#8
Many in the pickup truck community like their diesel trucks and probably will take a lot to get them to consider an EV.
  • Most pickups are half-ton, and the vast majority of those (~99%) are gasoline.
  • The 3/4 ton and 1 ton pickups are where diesel rules (~70%). Most of these are work trucks.
  • People like diesel for towing especially because of all the low-end torque
  • Guess what kind of vehicle produces even more low-end torque than diesel? :)
I don't disagree with you. There's a contingent of pickup owners who like having diesel-powered 3/4-ton vehicles as their daily drivers, and you probably won't get them to convert. But companies only care about bottom-lines, so you could easily convert the rest of those diesel work truck sales to electric if you have the range to meet their requirements. Same goes with the half-ton pickup sales. The main problem you're going to run into is range.
 
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#9
  • Most pickups are half-ton, and the vast majority of those (~99%) are gasoline.
  • The 3/4 ton and 1 ton pickups are where diesel rules (~70%). Most of these are work trucks.
  • People like diesel for towing especially because of all the low-end torque
  • Guess what kind of vehicle produces even more low-end torque than diesel? :)
I don't disagree with you. There's a contingent of pickup owners who like having diesel-powered 3/4-ton vehicles as their daily drivers, and you probably won't get them to convert. But companies only care about bottom-lines, so you could easily convert the rest of those diesel work truck sales to electric if you have the range to meet their requirements. Same goes with the half-ton pickup sales. The main problem you're going to run into is range.
I agree with you it makes more sense when you look at the stats. But looking at the who those drivers are...
It does make sense for companies to be the ones to convert their fleets to EV. I'm interested in seeing how the range for the pickup would be and also how it'll be while towing.
 

MelindaV

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#10
totally antidotal, but one of my co-workers who drives an older oversized quad cab GMC truck (I think that thing is quite literally 2x the length of my car) has said he will not buy a new truck until there are electric trucks available.
I told him they are coming sooner than most expect :)
 
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4701

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#12
Pickup would require a new platform. Model Y does not.
If Tesla glues pickup body to X chassis, it would tow some though it would not be a workhorse
and would ruin image of electric pickup trucks.
If they ever do that, it will be PREMIUM pickup truck with gigantic capabilities professionals
would prefer. Though I would not expect that. There are more profitable things to do.

Pickups are efficiency nightmare. Model X already is way worse than any other EV in terms of efficiency.
100kWh pack would not cut it.

I do not see a reason Tesla doing EVERYTHING people want.
Caterpillar isn't making city cars. BMW isn't making progress with pickup trucks nor vans. Why should they.
US specific ***** enlargement accessory. EU countries look on urban SUVs with cringing face, especially those that have their beds shiny and waxed.

US has 800 cars per 1000 citizens. On average there is less than 1½ occupants in a vehicle.

For me, pickup truck was always a car with permanently attached very high trailer. Am I wrong?
 

Michael Russo

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#13
(...)
For me, pickup truck was always a car with permanently attached very high trailer. Am I wrong?
While I agreed with some of your earlier statements, in particular the fact it would seem notably less complex to ‘branch off’ Model Y first and more easily, on the base of the Model 3, and the fact T≡SLA does not necessarily need to make everything people want - at least not all at the same time - at some point on your post, you definitely lost me ( and for sure quite a few others! ) once you express your opinion of what a pickup truck represents in your eyes. :rolleyes:

Fact is, for whatever reason, pickup trucks are extremely popular in the US and, as such represent a key demand element T≡SLA will need to respond to in due course. See this as a key step on the way to rEVolutionizing the transportation industry, even if primarily in one region in the world. So, yes, @arnis , I am afraid you are wrong, or at the very least not sufficiently sensitive to cultural or regional market specificities....

Remember diversity, please...

In the meantime, I do think most of us on this forum will continue to appeal to T≡SLA to focus on Model 3 ramp-up for now!!
 

MichelT3

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#14
Y is a 3+, to be built in expanded Fremont factory. Pickup is a new concept for which there is no production capacity.
Worldwide market for Y is much bigger than for 3. Pickup market exists practically only in US and Can.
So, Y it is. Simple. Or it's not a car, but a new solar product. Tesla is much more than cars.
 

Red Sage

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#15
The Ford F-Series pickup trucks are consistently within the top three best selling vehicles in the world annually. This includes not just the vaunted F-150, but several others ranging from F-250, F-350, and F-450 all the way through F-550, F-650, and F-750. The only vehicles that regularly outsell the F-Series are the Toyota Corolla at #1 and sometimes the Volkswagen Golf makes it to #2 ahead of F-Series instead of just #3, behind it. There is a ridiculously huge market for pickup trucks, or at least their chassis, which are the basis for amultitude of different heavy equipment configurations ranging from tow trucks and dump trucks to campers and garbage trucks. That is the market Tesla will tackle with its full sized pickup truck series, where running costs and torque play a huge role, along with towing capacity.
 
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4701

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#16
The Ford F-Series pickup trucks are consistently within the top three best selling vehicles in the world annually.
There is a ridiculously huge market for pickup trucks, or at least their chassis,
Pickup trucks in general are sold in "few millions per year", that includes all heavy variations like tow and dump trucks etc (manual labor, not suitable for robotic production)

Which represent only a tiny fraction compared to 80 million cars sold per year.
Whatever Tesla will produce, it will all be sold out (foreseeable future).
 

MichelT3

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#17
Woldwide is not equal to the markets where Tesla is selling and where Supercharger infrastructure exists.
Till they have increased their production capacity 50-fold, Tesla will need to sell those products which are desired in their main markets. The world as a whole is still too big for Tesla.

Pickups are negligible in Europe, where SUV's are a huge hit.
I think this even goes for coastal/urban USA and CAN, where the main number of Tesla's are sold.
 

Red Sage

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#18
I predicted way back in 2014 that it would be a good idea for Tesla to introduce a Class 8 long haul big rig right about this time. Not just as a means to counter Naysayers who pointed out Deliveries of Model 3 were still conducted by ICE tractor/trailers, but to also open the eyes of the public at large as to what battery electric vehicles were capable if. Idea being that kids always want what their Big Brother gets to play with. The Model S is something for Model 3 owners to aspire to. The Model X is there as an aspirational goal for future Model Y buyers. Upon seeing the ease at which a Tesla big rig will handle the tasks typically handled by diesels almost exclusively, more efficiently than even the most advanced and expensive turbodiesel hybrid rigs, and with an even lower cost of operation per mile, it will be very apparent that a Tesla Pickup will demolish all comers. My guess is that the most basic of Tesla full-sized pickups will match or surpass the 'heavy duty' 250/2500 and/or 350/3500 ICE pickups from the very outset when it comes to hauling and towing, while costing the same as 150/1500 trucks in high end trim.
 
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4701

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#19
If they ever do that, it will be PREMIUM pickup truck with gigantic capabilities professionals
would prefer.
I do not see a reason Tesla doing EVERYTHING people want.

100kWh pack would not cut it.
Quoted myself (post12).
Well,
it's gigantic with massive capabilities - check
Not what people expected - check
Hardly usable with normal driving license (for professionals) - check
100kWh will not cut it - check
And not available soon - check


When he's all done..."by the way"...back of the trailer opens up and out pops the new Tesla pickup. Place goes bonkers.
"By the way" - check
trailer opens up - check
out pops the new - check
pickup - noup
place goes bonkers - check

I win - score 5:4:tearsofjoy: