Order priority, line jumping & related exchanges

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mtdoak

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#1
I'm getting a bit concerned. There should now be a big batch of invites every week. Headliner might not be the only supplier issue striking once things are ramping up.
Everyone there is a chance invites have not gone out, but I would also say there is a chance they have. The active members of the boards represent say 100 reservations outstanding if that. The number of estimated US reservations for this timeframe is roughly 15 thousand or so. Basically saying representation could be under 1%, so very possible invites are going out just not to anyone in the represented group on the boards. Last VIN progression was in the 8000 range if I remember properly, so at 1000 per week they still have a few weeks before needing to get more VINs.
If they are making bigger and bigger invite groups, it could very well be 2 weeks between invites.

From what I can tell, things are divided into a few groups:

Employees (this appears to be completed for the "first production" model)
Current Owners in CA (two waves of invites)
Current Owners outside of CA (seems to have been ongoing)

There has been a pause since Jan 4th.

Could very well be that the are starting one of the biggest groups for the next wave, which would be non owners, day 1 reservationists (likely just in CA) If they are catching up deliveries and ramping up to start true mass deliveries, a pause while they amass inventory and fulfill what they have configured already. I think people are expecting this to be a linear process, it's going to be fix bottle neck, new bottleneck appears. Until they hit full throttle (10k a week) it's likely going to be wave of invites, wait. Tesla will check the inventory, see how the numbers look, then send out another wave. Time between invites isn't going to be every 7 days, it'll likely vary as the size of invites steadily grows. The ramp is going to be a set of stairs to big numbers, not a smooth line.
 

Brokedoc

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#2
If they are making bigger and bigger invite groups, it could very well be 2 weeks between invites.

From what I can tell, things are divided into a few groups:

Employees (this appears to be completed for the "first production" model)
Current Owners in CA (two waves of invites)
Current Owners outside of CA (seems to have been ongoing)
Don't forget that things are going to get more complicated really soon when standard battery/non PUP becomes available "early 2018". This is expected before dual motor "spring 2018" so I interpret that as Feb or March delivery for the cheaper version which means config can start at any time for a 4 week delivery. Employees who passed on first production would get first invites for cheaper models then expand to current owners. Who knows how this will blend in with the first production rollout to non owners...
 

mtdoak

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#3
Don't forget that things are going to get more complicated really soon when standard battery/non PUP becomes available "early 2018". This is expected before dual motor "spring 2018" so I interpret that as Feb or March delivery for the cheaper version which means config can start at any time for a 4 week delivery. Employees who passed on first production would get first invites for cheaper models then expand to current owners. Who knows how this will blend in with the first production rollout to non owners...
Given the higher margins they are enjoying on the long range models, I am willing to wager that non owners who are opting for the long range premium models will get an opportunity to buy before the even the employees see the standard range, regular version. Money talks. I'm sure if you preordered in September of last year, that isn't the case. But if you ordered within the first few days of the announcement, I'd bet you will

Tesla's got a captive audience. Why rush the lower margin, cheaper one out the door when they can't make the higher margin, expensive one quick enough?
 

Brokedoc

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#4
Given the higher margins they are enjoying on the long range models, I am willing to wager that non owners who are opting for the long range premium models will get an opportunity to buy before the even the employees see the standard range, regular version. Money talks. I'm sure if you preordered in September of last year, that isn't the case. But if you ordered within the first few days of the announcement, I'd bet you will

Tesla's got a captive audience. Why rush the lower margin, cheaper one out the door when they can't make the higher margin, expensive one quick enough?
I agree with you about profitability but Tesla and Elon are a different kind of car company as is evidenced by Tesla giving free range to owners evacuating storms and free speed upgrades to owners of Model S/X 75D even though it takes 2-3 hours of service time.

I find that Elon tries as hard as possible to meet deadlines when they are set. I really didn't think I was going to get my First Production invite in time for January delivery but he proved me wrong with that. The standard battery will still be profitable once production starts. The key to profitability with the Model 3 is economies of scale and it would benefit Tesla to sell as many as possible.

Remember that ultimately Elon's goal is to change the world for the better. Making shareholders happy falls lower on the list of his priorities.
 

SoFlaModel3

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#5
April 2017? You pre-ordered a year after the reveal but still have a Dec - Feb estimation?
I have 2 guesses on how owner priority works...

1) Revolving door — basically if a Model S/X or original Roadster owner wants a Model 3 “now” they skip the line

2) A cutoff — likely positioned around when deliveries began, so basically any “owner” with an order in before July 2017 would be in the priority bucket.

The more I think about that the more likely I believe #2 is the answer. The question is really more so when is the cutoff though...
 
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Cernie

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#6
@SoFlaModel3 Here is a data point for your Cutoff Theory. I am a CA owner since 2016 who placed a Model 3 order in February 2017 who got the earliest invite window...Oct - Dec (changed to Nov - Dec like everyone else). My take is that Tesla's plan is actually fluid and evolving. Based on the original plan, it looks like the combination of owner/location was the key....hence the fact that I got the earliest window even though I ordered later. That is not the case anymore as folks across the country who had Dec - Feb windows are getting their cars before me. What they seem to have in common, though, is that they all ordered around March 31. So...it seems that they changed their plan if folks with later windows are getting them. It will be interesting to see how much weight all the factors carry moving forward...it appears that geography (California) is less important than we originally were led to believe and when you ordered is very important. This sucks for me but is absolutely the fairer thing to do since everyone is a current owner. If this is true...then I think that there are a lot of owners that ordered before me that will get their car so there is no way that I'm going to get close to hitting my current Nov - Jan window. What will also be interesting is to see whether a non-owner who placed their order on March 31 will get ahead of me.
 

SoFlaModel3

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#7
@SoFlaModel3 Here is a data point for your Cutoff Theory. I am a CA owner since 2016 who placed a Model 3 order in February 2017 who got the earliest invite window...Oct - Dec (changed to Nov - Dec like everyone else). My take is that Tesla's plan is actually fluid and evolving. Based on the original plan, it looks like the combination of owner/location was the key....hence the fact that I got the earliest window even though I ordered later. That is not the case anymore as folks across the country who had Dec - Feb windows are getting their cars before me. What they seem to have in common, though, is that they all ordered around March 31. So...it seems that they changed their plan if folks with later windows are getting them. It will be interesting to see how much weight all the factors carry moving forward...it appears that geography (California) is less important than we originally were led to believe and when you ordered is very important. This sucks for me but is absolutely the fairer thing to do since everyone is a current owner. If this is true...then I think that there are a lot of owners that ordered before me that will get their car so there is no way that I'm going to get close to hitting my current Nov - Jan window. What will also be interesting is to see whether a non-owner who placed their order on March 31 will get ahead of me.
I can’t imagine a non-owner gets an invite before you. In fact I bet you get an invite in the next batch (hopefully this week as I want my invite in that batch as well)!!
 

Cernie

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#8
I can’t imagine a non-owner gets an invite before you. In fact I bet you get an invite in the next batch (hopefully this week as I want my invite in that batch as well)!!
Sooner or later they will run out of owners (I probably shifted to the last 33% of the owner group now that it appears geography is not important). We will see if they adjust their plans after they get through the Day 1/Day 2 owner orders and start sending invites to non-owner line waiters. I think it would be bucking convention from a "Business 101" perspective if they decide to put any non-owners ahead of owners but it could happen.
I'm highly dubious I will hit my window even if I were to change my definition of "delivery estimate" to "invite estimate". They probably know that I'm an extremely loyal owner that they can screw over and I will still run back to them when they come around and tell me that they love me. :)
 

Michael Russo

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#9
I can’t imagine a non-owner gets an invite before you. In fact I bet you get an invite in the next batch (hopefully this week as I want my invite in that batch as well)!!
As you know, I have a slightly different view... though I don't know anymore than anyone what the truth is... ;)

@Cernie reserved his car in Feb 2017, presumably after more than half a million people (owners and non-owners)... Yes, the owner priority principle is what we've gone with yet we still don't know if there is a cut-off or, if there is, what it is.
I find the hypothesis of an evolutive sequence he alludes to rather intriguing. I have no doubt he'll get his car before a European who reserved 4 months before him (;)), yet not sure if there won't be any early non-owner reservation holders in the US who'll get their invite to configure ahead of him. All these 'criteria lanes' at some point will start to run in parallel rather than in sequence...
 

Cernie

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#10
As you know, I have a slightly different view... though I don't know anymore than anyone what the truth is... ;)

@Cernie reserved his car in Feb 2017, presumably after more than half a million people (owners and non-owners)... Yes, the owner priority principle is what we've gone with yet we still don't know if there is a cut-off or, if there is, what it is.
I find the hypothesis of an evolutive sequence he alludes to rather intriguing. I have no doubt he'll get his car before a European who reserved 4 months before him (;)), yet not sure if there won't be any early non-owner reservation holders in the US who'll get their invite to configure ahead of him. All these 'criteria lanes' at some point will start to run in parallel rather than in sequence...
As someone who runs a business, I am actually more fascinated by the roll out process itself than whether I get my car January, February, or March...especially when you have such limited supply that forces a company to make hard decisions. Do you send an invitation to an extremely eager potential future customer (i.e. a March 31 non-owner) over an existing customer that has already spent more than $80,000 but who obviously didn't show the same extreme eagerness for the new product? My popcorn is out and I'm watching the show to see the next move!
 

SoFlaModel3

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As you know, I have a slightly different view... though I don't know anymore than anyone what the truth is... ;)

@Cernie reserved his car in Feb 2017, presumably after more than half a million people (owners and non-owners)... Yes, the owner priority principle is what we've gone with yet we still don't know if there is a cut-off or, if there is, what it is.
I find the hypothesis of an evolutive sequence he alludes to rather intriguing. I have no doubt he'll get his car before a European who reserved 4 months before him (;)), yet not sure if there won't be any early non-owner reservation holders in the US who'll get their invite to configure ahead of him. All these 'criteria lanes' at some point will start to run in parallel rather than in sequence...
As someone who runs a business, I am actually more fascinated by the roll out process itself than whether I get my car January, February, or March...especially when you have such limited supply that forces a company to make hard decisions. Do you send an invitation to an extremely eager potential future customer (i.e. a March 31 non-owner) over an existing customer that has already spent more than $80,000 but who obviously didn't show the same extreme eagerness for the new product? My popcorn is out and I'm watching the show to see the next move!
I agree with you both. Now it states online and Elon Tweeted as well that owners go first. We know this is true and we’ve already seen it. The only part left to understand is where/when does it cut off. I suspect we find out in the next few weeks.
 

Cernie

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#12
I agree with you both. Now it states online and Elon Tweeted as well that owners go first. We know this is true and we’ve already seen it. The only part left to understand is where/when does it cut off. I suspect we find out in the next few weeks.
I would put my bets on owners as well...it seems that Tesla is valuing ownership VERY strongly...so strongly that they seem to have walked away from their "one owned car = 1 model 3 reservation" by allowing owners with one car to configure multiple reservations. Personally...I would not have done this since keeping a current customer happy by giving them "one priority for one car owned" should have been enough. Giving them more than 1 car priority seems excessive and they are jeopardizing potentially pissing people off that may also be important to Tesla. Why give an ice cream sundae with two scoops? Instead...give two one scoop sundaes to two different people! Congrats on the "merging accounts with your parents"...appreciative golf clap from me. Don't hate the player, hate the game...the American way, baby!
 

SoFlaModel3

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#13
I would put my bets on owners as well...it seems that Tesla is valuing ownership VERY strongly...so strongly that they seem to have walked away from their "one owned car = 1 model 3 reservation" by allowing owners with one car to configure multiple reservations. Personally...I would not have done this since keeping a current customer happy by giving them "one priority for one car owned" should have been enough. Giving them more than 1 car priority seems excessive and they are jeopardizing potentially pissing people off that may also be important to Tesla. Why give an ice cream sundae with two scoops? Instead...give two one scoop sundaes to two different people! Congrats on the "merging accounts with your parents"...appreciative golf clap from me. Don't hate the player, hate the game...the American way, baby!
Where have you seen an example of an owner with more Model 3 configuration invites than current / previously owned Tesla’s?

I haven’t seen any yet...
 

Jayc

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#14
As someone who runs a business, I am actually more fascinated by the roll out process itself than whether I get my car January, February, or March...especially when you have such limited supply that forces a company to make hard decisions. Do you send an invitation to an extremely eager potential future customer (i.e. a March 31 non-owner) over an existing customer that has already spent more than $80,000 but who obviously didn't show the same extreme eagerness for the new product? My popcorn is out and I'm watching the show to see the next move!
Ha ha see the trick is you never reveal the actual algorithm for working out the priority. That way everyone can guess and have an opinion but no one can complain.
 

Cernie

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#15
Where have you seen an example of an owner with more Model 3 configuration invites than current / previously owned Tesla’s?

I haven’t seen any yet...
I saw it on the other site (Tesla Forums). Now...I may be misreading or they could be misstating. The writing seems pretty clear, though. I've seen it a few times on that site by different people. Here is an example:

deemo | January 17, 2018
Actually got second invite email today about 2:30pm and checked website, looks like can configure both cars. This is for first day CA waiter supposedly without owner preference on second because only own 1 Tesla. First invite still shows AWD selected waiting but shows available now to order both. (Second car said Dec-Feb yesterday.)
 

Michael Russo

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#16
Where have you seen an example of an owner with more Model 3 configuration invites than current / previously owned Tesla’s?

I haven’t seen any yet...
Didn’t @AEDennis get two invitations to configure yet decided to hold on the 2nd because he wants AWD (or SRB, can’t remember...)?
 

SoFlaModel3

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I saw it on the other site (Tesla Forums). Now...I may be misreading or they could be misstating. The writing seems pretty clear, though. I've seen it a few times on that site by different people. Here is an example:

deemo | January 17, 2018
Actually got second invite email today about 2:30pm and checked website, looks like can configure both cars. This is for first day CA waiter supposedly without owner preference on second because only own 1 Tesla. First invite still shows AWD selected waiting but shows available now to order both. (Second car said Dec-Feb yesterday.)
Interesting...

Could be that this person is on their second Tesla and only currently owns 1...?
 
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