Order flow

Bokonon

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#2
When I saw that it was a Forbes article, I sighed. But I did click through and attempted to read with an open mind. However, a few minor* issues...

* Not at all minor

As I wrote above, Tesla received 180,000 Model 3 orders in the first 24 hours. Most of those would be on March 31, so lets assume 150,00 were on the first day.
First of all: "let's", not "lets" -- 10 points from Slytherin!

Second: Why assume? We know that there were over 115,000 reservations placed by the time Elon took the stage. So why not just use that number?

The line I was in at the Stanford Shopping Center in Palo Alto, California, probably had at least 300 people lined-up and may have had 500 or more show up the first day. In theory all of them should be able to configure their Model 3 before the next day’s customers could buy one.
In theory.... yes. In practice... not so much. A certain 27-page TOO thread comes to mind. :)

An email from Tesla arrived this morning inviting me to design my Model 3, with delivery in 3 to 6 weeks.
Therefore, the next critical order group are the ones that were not on the first day.
Uhhh... o_O ... Not sure how this logically follows. Author vaguely implies that he was around 300th in line at the Stanford Shopping Center, and there "may have been" 200 more people after him. I guess he's assuming that everyone else in the line also got their invitation for some reason? o_O

If Tesla has worked through at least the 150,000 or so first day orders for non-Tesla owners in just a month...
Wait, stop right here. The author's initially-stated assumption was that 150,000 people lined up on day one, but now he's implying that those 150,000 somehow did not include any Tesla owners? Even though his second paragraph is all about Tesla owners taking delivery of Model 3s? o_O

Anyway, continue that thought, please...

...the conversion rate of the initial orders may be lower than expected.
Fun fact: dividing one arbitrary number by another arbitrary number could yield a result that is lower, higher, or in-line with expectations, regardless of whether those expectations are, themselves, arbitrary. :smirk:

I am assuming that most of the orders were from non-Tesla owners since Tesla Model S and X owners did not need to order on the first day to get priority.
Or it may be that customers are deciding to defer their orders so that they don’t have to pay for options that are being sold in the initial batch of cars.
Or they did not anticipate getting them so soon and need to dispose of another car before they buy the Model 3.
Or they may be waiting for a lease option.
Or they may actually want to test drive one.
Wait, hang on... I think I've figured out who this guy is!! :eek:

 
Last edited:

MelindaV

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#4
Wait, stop right here. The author's initially-stated assumption was that 150,000 people lined up on day one, but now he's implying that those 150,000 somehow did not include any Tesla owners? Even though his second paragraph is all about Tesla owners taking delivery of Model 3s? o_O
not to mention ALL the in store international orders that would be included in that 150k...