Official Delivery Event Thread

MichelT3

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When I heard Elon say that the production ramp-up is an S-curve that is very difficult to predict, I decided to give it a try. Based on production starting in July 2017 and producing 400k Model 3 in 2018, I came up with a curve and posted it on M3OC last February. At that time Elon was saying that the Fremont factory was capable of 500k cars per year, so the assumption was that it was 400k Model 3’s and 100k Model S & X. Friday, he said it was 500k Model 3 and 100k Model S & X.

He showed an S-curve that had 5k per week at the end of December and he said they are planning to do 10k per week by the end of next year.

I realize that the curve they showed was just to give an idea of what the ramp-up would look like, but never the less, I decided to compare it with what I came up with in February. I printed his curve and with the magic of pencil and ruler extracted the weekly values.

So, for what it’s worth:

View attachment 2610


As you can see, I was grossly optimistic. Elon shows 41k cars produced this year. I was looking at close to 80k. I think the main differences is that I had a very fast ramp during the first 8 weeks, and was at 1k per week at week 8. He shows very little happening during that period and not getting to 1k per week until week 15.
Very nice. I agree that Musk's more slowly ramp up in the first weeks is the more probable.

But where both your and Musk's graphs go wrong is that you reach a plateau of 5 k per week end of December 2017. Where we all know that the ramp up continues after that towards 10k in December 2018.

When you put that into a graph - presuming that reality will happen accordingly (!) - you will see that the ramp up in the first weeks will go even slower. But also that it's very probable that 10k will be (almost) reached months before December 2018.
 
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Has anyone else noticed changes in their deliver estimates? Until yesterday, mine has said Sept-Dec 2018 for Dual Motor AWD, but now it's showing July-Sept 2018.
Nice find! :) I had early 2019 (Europe, and late reservation :-( ), now it shows late 2018. Kind of curious how many cars are in Europe, if all of them are to be delivered late 2018
 

plankeye

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Well this is indeed interesting. Monica from Tesla customer service just called. I'm traveling on the road today on business but I took her call and I'm glad I did. She said the first 30 cars delivered to employees had the 19 inch sport Wheels. She said no decision has been made yet as to what the 18in wheels will look like. If an employee wants 18in Wheels they have to put their reservation on hold because they are only building cars with 19 inch sport Wheels right now. She said to continue to watch the Tesla website for more information. She said that information about the 18in wheels will probably come out in about 4 to 6 weeks. At this time nobody knows what the 18in wheels are going to be. She said yes the release candidate cars had wheel covers over the rims but they are not sure that is what the final 18in Rim is going to look like.

Well that is really interesting. I am just very impressed with Tesla customer service at least they're being honest with me. Go Tesla.
If that employee is correct, it seems to me that there wouldn't have been any cars at the delivery event with the aero wheels. Also, it seems odd that Doug Field's car would have the aero's on it.

upload_2017-8-2_18-45-51-png.2643


upload_2017-8-2_18-50-42-png.2644
 

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Also, it seems odd that Doug Field's car would have the aero's on it.
Has it been confirmed that was a production car? If it is, maybe an exception was made for the V.P. of Engineering since it looks like the same car at the delivery event, which looks like the same car that racecar driver Leilani Munter is standing in front of in @garsh photo.
 

Veloaudio

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Anyone else having issues with the Tesla shop? I'm trying to order a charging cable and I keep getting ask to log in to MyTesla account to check out. I click the 'Login to myTesla' button and I get a 404 error.
 

Steven

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Especially if those weren't based on promises by Tesla.
Yeah, but most were. I suppose we can have a useless argument based on the phrase "promise", but I feel there were several times that you really have to stretch things to say they didn't break a promise.

As one example, I've quoted the model 3 FAQ page several times (it is changed now, of course) that promised a West to East roll out for North America. That's now but confirmed to be BS and Canada and Mexico (obviously part of North America) have to wait until "Late 2018". That's a PROMISE by Tesla, that turned out to be a complete falsehood.

That's probably my biggest peeve. Despite you guys continually suggesting I'm mad because I can't or don't want to afford the car... my biggest problem is the dismissal of that "promise".

Cost... yeah, I think they over-priced all the mandatory "options", but I realize that (might be) just a temporary thing. I've softened my stance on that. Mostly my straggling grumbling is just availability inequity.

I've gone back and forth with a couple in the Pacific Northwest (USA) who may lend me their 3, but I'm not sure its worth the terms they're offering. If I can get to work developing parts for this car, I'd be far more inclined to pay whatever they want. Late 2018 is just too bloody slow. If everyone were in the same boat, fine, but that's not the case.

I suppose I could move to California. Hmm..



Anyway, I'm test driving a Volt next week. I'll lease it for 3 years so I'm not too committed on a car I don't really want. And I'll see what's what when the 3 is eventually available to me.
 

MichelT3

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Yeah, but most were. I suppose we can have a useless argument based on the phrase "promise", but I feel there were several times that you really have to stretch things to say they didn't break a promise.

As one example, I've quoted the model 3 FAQ page several times (it is changed now, of course) that promised a West to East roll out for North America. That's now but confirmed to be BS and Canada and Mexico (obviously part of North America) have to wait until "Late 2018". That's a PROMISE by Tesla, that turned out to be a complete falsehood.

That's probably my biggest peeve. Despite you guys continually suggesting I'm mad because I can't or don't want to afford the car... my biggest problem is the dismissal of that "promise".

Cost... yeah, I think they over-priced all the mandatory "options", but I realize that (might be) just a temporary thing. I've softened my stance on that. Mostly my straggling grumbling is just availability inequity.

I've gone back and forth with a couple in the Pacific Northwest (USA) who may lend me their 3, but I'm not sure its worth the terms they're offering. If I can get to work developing parts for this car, I'd be far more inclined to pay whatever they want. Late 2018 is just too bloody slow. If everyone were in the same boat, fine, but that's not the case.

I suppose I could move to California. Hmm..



Anyway, I'm test driving a Volt next week. I'll lease it for 3 years so I'm not too committed on a car I don't really want. And I'll see what's what when the 3 is eventually available to me.
So, Tesla changed delivery for NW Canada and Mexico. How strange when making a car production ready against a much larger demand than expected. Enlarging the need for fast delivery in their home US market in the light of the tax rebate.
I'd be happy to get my car late 2018. I rather expect it will be 2019. This means that I have to try and keep my 1988, 500,000 km car on the road another year and a half. What a disaster... pfft!
Do you think that with an attitude like this, many people here will buy your specialised parts? I don't.
Don't be so negative, it will make you a more happy person.
 
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So, Tesla changed delivery for NW Canada and Mexico. How strange when making a car production ready against a much larger demand than expected. Enlarging the need for fast delivery in their home US market in the light of the tax rebate.
I'd be happy to get my car late 2018. I rather expect it will be 2019. This means that I have to try and keep my 1988, 500,000 km car on the road another year and a half. What a disaster... pfft!
Do you think that with an attitude like this, many people here will buy your specialised parts? I don't.
Don't be so negative, it will make you a more happy person.
I share Steven's frustration with the international roll-out of M3, and I don't think it's unreasonable to feel this way. As well as a previous version of the M3 FAQ, EM tweeted just a few months ago that RHD cars would be available in summer '18, so clearly Tesla have not done a good job of managing expectations.

Luckily for you, the impact appears to be minimal, but this may not be the same for others who may have planned around previous Tesla communications.

My personal frustrations are primarily a result of my impatience!! Considering MS CPO to alleviate my frustrations....
 

TrevP

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Hey Trev, several people have mentioned the suspension feeling firm. It seems like Tesla was going for a more "sporty" feel. I get there isn't air suspension, and this may be one of the areas they're differentiating the 3 from the S. How was your experience with the suspension? Was it rougher than you would like? Have you ridden in a 3 series BMW? Was it similar to that? Thanks for your thoughts!
I can't speak to this as our rides were no more than about 20-25 MPH behind Teslas factory. Felt like a Model S at that speed and very quiet. My main concern during the ride was exploring the interior
 

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As one example, I've quoted the model 3 FAQ page several times (it is changed now, of course) that promised a West to East roll out for North America. That's now but confirmed to be BS and Canada and Mexico (obviously part of North America) have to wait until "Late 2018". That's a PROMISE by Tesla, that turned out to be a complete falsehood.
@Steven I think that's still the plan. Think of Fremont as the epicenter of a rEVoltionary quake. Then envision concentric circles emanating from Fremont. I think you will get your car sooner than predicted if government regulations can be accommodated.

I suppose I could move to California. Hmm..
There are worse places you could move! A good friend of mine, a multi-millionaire from Vancouver, sold his house on the water to some mainland Chinese as "housing" for their son while a student in Vancouver. He wanted to apply for US dual citizenship and move to La Jolla, California (you have to be worth a million just to say the name!). He was turned down because he didn't meet the "qualifications!"
 

Steven

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So, Tesla changed delivery for NW Canada and Mexico. How strange when making a car production ready against a much larger demand than expected. Enlarging the need for fast delivery in their home US market in the light of the tax rebate.
I'd be happy to get my car late 2018. I rather expect it will be 2019. This means that I have to try and keep my 1988, 500,000 km car on the road another year and a half. What a disaster... pfft!
Do you think that with an attitude like this, many people here will buy your specialised parts? I don't.
Don't be so negative, it will make you a more happy person.
Once again, you're saying your opinions count and mine don't. Thanks for that. I take back my previous statement about you not being impolite.
 

Todd Harrison

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My concern is that the US tax credit will extend into 2019 at a gradually lower value, at what point do international deliveries that were early get priority? Tesla has experienced what happens to orders when incentives expire, if my provinces rebates expires or gets cancelled it will a tough pill to swallow. I remain hopeful that once regulatory approval is achieved things will get sorted out and order date will mean something again.
 

Michael Russo

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So, Tesla changed delivery for NW Canada and Mexico. How strange when making a car production ready against a much larger demand than expected. Enlarging the need for fast delivery in their home US market in the light of the tax rebate.
I'd be happy to get my car late 2018. I rather expect it will be 2019. This means that I have to try and keep my 1988, 500,000 km car on the road another year and a half. What a disaster... pfft!
Do you think that with an attitude like this, many people here will buy your specialised parts? I don't.
Don't be so negative, it will make you a more happy person.
Michel, Steven made the point before there was a misnomer in the previous reference to Western North America having a priority when it reality what was implied was Western USA only. More than anything, it was indicative of a somewhat regrettable US-centric view of geography some display... it can be at times frustrating to other foreigners, of course in particular to other North Americans like Canadians & Mexicans! I think we Europeans can understand that; I certainly do.

Having said that, you are correct in your message that, now that we know, we need to move on and remember how fortunate we all are to, at some point, even if later than expected, get one of, if not THE most rEVolutionary car in over a century!!

There probably was no real need to add your one be4 last paragraph which, surely for someone who is still going through anger stage (since Steven tells us he is still 'peeved'...), touches a sensitive chord... it's ok to disagree yet let's try do it with empathy, ok?... as you effectively did in your last paragraph! :)

Once again, you're saying your opinions count and mine don't. Thanks for that. I take back my previous statement about you not being impolite.
Steven, I don't believe this was Michel's intent, though, as stated above, he may have expressed a candor you perceived as too rough around the edges.

The key message really is, we all have to wait, longer than we'd like, we'll probably a spend - even if a little - more than expected, yet, in the end, we all really really really want our Model 3 (you inspired me with that one! ;)) so we'll most certainly be happy campers (written from my rental RV! :D)

Peace, brothers... :rainbow:;):rainbow:
 

MarkB

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As one example, I've quoted the model 3 FAQ page several times (it is changed now, of course) that promised a West to East roll out for North America. That's now but confirmed to be BS and Canada and Mexico (obviously part of North America) have to wait until "Late 2018". That's a PROMISE by Tesla, that turned out to be a complete falsehood.


I never read it quite that way -- I didn't know how the
border would factor into things. For me it also left open the possibility of West to East in the USA, then cross the border, then West to East in Canada, or as even a MORE general statement.

I have no issues with pumping as many TM3's into the USA once the clock starts ticking on their
rebate. As soon as that last rebate is gone, however, it would make sense to start spreading it around the world a little more in a more equitable "first come, first served" type system.
 

Steven

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And US rebates aren't the only consideration. BC, for example, has a very time-sensitive scrap-it incentive that dries up in the first quarter of every year. Are they going to "do the right thing" to maximize those? Frankly, I think Tesla should market their product completely ignorant of incentives since they are all temporary. But they can do what they want... I just would have appreciated some honesty. There was no vagueness in the wording. I had every reason to expect that as a "West coast of North America" purchaser that I'd be getting mine early... because that's what they said. And continued to say right up until a few days ago.

I suppose I feel it affects me more than most because I put a lot into planning and without early access, those plans are all but wasted. I was basing those plans on information that was right there in print for all to see. I thought that was solid.

Whatever, I have to roll with it.

[/pity party]

On to a fun note: I got SUPER excited this afternoon! An unknown number came up on my phone today, just saying "California". I figured it was a telemarketer, but the guy introduced himself and said he was from Tesla. He says something like this (totally paraphrasing but its pretty close):
I see you're interested in going for a test drive?
I says, "uh yeah" [nearly crapping pants].
Would you like to set something up?
I says, "you betcha!"
That's great. Oh, I'm sorry but you'll have to come down to Vancouver. Would that be OK?
I says, "no problem, just tell me when".
That's great Steven, now which model were you wanting to get into?
"Model 3. Yep... gimme gimme"
Haha. Oh silly, those aren't available yet. But we can get you into an S or an X right away
.[awkward silence. Palm to forehead]
Hello? Steven are you there?
"So... ya'll can see I have two reservations for the Model 3, right?
Oh yes, but I also see you ordered a Model S and canceled it
"uh huh"
We were hoping...
I interrupted and I'm not really sure how that went after that. My supreme excitement came quickly crashing down. I may have hung up on him, I don't really recall.