Now 5,000 to 10,000, just how many tents will it take?

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GDN

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#1
So lots of Tesla news tonight, the one question I've had for a few weeks as they are still working to get to that 5,000/wk number, just how will they ever make it to 10,000/wk?

I love Tesla, what they do, the cars they make and I want them to succeed. However, with new dates seemingly pushed out for delivery, just how can they take production lines that seem to be struggling to hit 5000/wk, and double the output? Can it be done if it hasn't been done up til now? Is it the line in Fremont with issues? Is it still a battery production issue? How much more room is left inside the Fremont building? Is there room for another line that just isn't up and running yet for the doubling of output? Curiosity killed the cat.
 

TrevP

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#2
They will have to add more temporary structures or readjust internal production lines. Also, they're at 5K week a now... You'll see :)
 

MelindaV

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#3
yeah, was thinking the new line 3 (inside) was bringing them at least up to 5k, the tent line over.
also line 3 was near equal (or was it above) the production rate of the first 2 combined. So in theory, they would be going back to those to bring them up to the volume of line 3.

to stick some theoretical numbers next to each line, it seems pretty logical that 10k can be achieved.

So say in june:
line 1: 1250/week
line 2: 1250/week
line 3: 2500/week
line 3.5: (lets not count him)
for 5,000/week

then update lines 1 and 2 to meet line 3:
line 1: 2500/week
line 2: 2500/week
line 3: 2500/week
line 3.5: (still ignoring him)
for 7,500/week using line 3's initial productivity

add in tent line 3.5 at half the production (1250) and we are up to 8750/week.
if 3.5 is equal to 3, 10,000/week.

add to that any improvements on line 3's initial rates (that then are implemented on the other lines), and we are golden
 

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#4
yeah, was thinking the new line 3 (inside) was bringing them at least up to 5k, the tent line over.
also line 3 was near equal (or was it above) the production rate of the first 2 combined. So in theory, they would be going back to those to bring them up to the volume of line 3.

to stick some theoretical numbers next to each line, it seems pretty logical that 10k can be achieved.

So say in june:
line 1: 1250/week
line 2: 1250/week
line 3: 2500/week
line 3.5: (lets not count him)
for 5,000/week

then update lines 1 and 2 to meet line 3:
line 1: 2500/week
line 2: 2500/week
line 3: 2500/week
line 3.5: (still ignoring him)
for 7,500/week using line 3's initial productivity

add in tent line 3.5 at half the production (1250) and we are up to 8750/week.
if 3.5 is equal to 3, 10,000/week.

add to that any improvements on line 3's initial rates (that then are implemented on the other lines), and we are golden
I like it I just didn’t know if the current lines were maxed and further production was more lines had to be opened or if the current lines can increase production which sounds like the key here.
 

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#5
I think I said this in another thread, but I see no chance of 10K model 3 per week, not without a specific 2nd full time, fully enclosed line. And I don't see that happening for over a year.
 

GDN

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#8
I don't think they will hit 10k until they significantly build out the (Nevada) Gigafactory and start building vehicles there
I guess I'm not looped in to the right Tesla news sources. Is that the plan? Build cars in Reno?
 

calvan

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#9
Also consider all hands on deck approach to get to 5k/week for 1 week. Is this sustainable? And I have read the paint shop is a bottleneck as well. I want to believe the 3-5mo timeline but the numbers dont add up if they still have 420,000 reservations. No way they give everyone the same timeline and deliver.
 

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#10
They haven’t mentioned the 10k number for a looong time. Not sure that’s still in the cards.
 

tivoboy

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#11
Frankly, and I know I will get a ton of hate flame for this but I don't think I would really want one of these 5000 cars made this week. ;-(
 

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#14
Frankly, and I know I will get a ton of hate flame for this but I don't think I would really want one of these 5000 cars made this week. ;-(
Do you think that the cars aren't actually signed off on passing QA tests? That they skipped tests and lied about them passing them? I'm curious what the theory is here.

Yeah, any new product's quality can expect to steadily rise over time as its production process gets refined, but I don't think there's anything special about the last week versus any of the others so far that raises red flags. I'd much rather have one from last week than one from last year. Or even this spring.
 

summerfun

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#15
Do you think that the cars aren't actually signed off on passing QA tests? That they skipped tests and lied about them passing them? I'm curious what the theory is here.

Yeah, any new product's quality can expect to steadily rise over time as its production process gets refined, but I don't think there's anything special about the last week versus any of the others so far that raises red flags. I'd much rather have one from last week than one from last year. Or even this spring.
From my days as a dealer, there is a standing joke you always want a car built on a Wednesday. Mondays people are hung over, Tuesdays they are still getting back to normal. Thursdays they are starting to think about the weekend, and Fridays they just want to get out. So your best shot of a well-built car was a Wednesday build date.

The only concern I would have is for a "tent" car. Temps are up in Fremont and just going to get hotter and all they have in there are fans according to employee reports where working conditions are "hot as hell". I want the real new car smell. Not lingering odors of someone who forgot to shower or use deodorant. Threads on here have complaints of fingerprints, smudges, etc. I do not see that improving with a tent car built this summer. I can see slower performers being threatened with "pick up the pace or you're headed to the tent"! ;)
 

KarenRei

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#16
Temps are up in Fremont and just going to get hotter and all they have in there are fans according to employee reports where working conditions are "hot as hell"
You're quoting from an employee who was described in the article that quoted him suchly as a "union advocate" at Fremont.

It's also worth noting that Sprung structures can be - and frequently are - fully enclosed, insulated, and air conditioned / heated.
 

summerfun

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#17
Quite right. I have been in a couple in Canada that were very comfortable inside. But the one in Fremont is open at both ends. If you look at the pics published by Electrek the production line actually begins outside. The City of Fremont reports no permits are being sought for an HVAC system. All pics and drone shots confirm this.
 

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#18
Quite right. I have been in a couple in Canada that were very comfortable inside. But the one in Fremont is open at both ends. If you look at the pics published by Electrek...


Yes, old pictures showed it partly exposed and with no ends, because it was still being built. They didn't wait for the building to be finished before building the line. And good for them in that regard. I'm sure HVAC will be up and running shortly.

Also:

I'd like to add that I find surprisingly few people talking about how utterly amazing it is that Tesla demonstrated to build a whole new GA line... from scrap and a low-cost Sprung structure.... and use it to make a thousand cars per week... in a month, start to finish. I mean, that's completely off the charts in the automotive world.
 
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summerfun

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#19


Yes, old pictures showed it partly exposed and with no ends, because it was still being built. They didn't wait for the building to be finished before building the line. And good for them in that regard.

Also:
Nice, they added another section to cover the beginning of the line. But as we can see, no insulation and no doors.

I have to disagree with your assessment of it was good to start the line ahead of construction completion. It means the crews were working over top of brand new car bodies. It all ties back to this self-inflicted goal of 5,000 per week production rate that repeatedly got delayed making Tesla look incompetent. Who cares if they build 4,500 or 4,800 or 5,100 a week? Just build cars as well as they can. People have already waited over two years. I want my car built at a steady pace with each step fully completed; not a rush job. I'm sure you do too.
 

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#20
Nice, they added another section to cover the beginning of the line. But as we can see, no insulation and no doors.
They've sealed off all that you'd want to before installing HVAC, but more to the point, even these images are obsolete. The drone footage is now a week old. Normally that would be seen as "new footage", but at the rate Tesla has been moving over there, its really not.

I have to disagree with your assessment of it was good to start the line...
I wrote "building the line", not "starting the line". It's not clear exactly what the building status was when actual production vehicles started rolling out, but the building was certainly more complete than in the old Electrek pictures.

It all ties back to this self-inflicted goal of 5,000 per week production rate that repeatedly got delayed making Tesla look incompetent
Tesla's goal for last week was set in January. They've maintained that schedule for six months. When people want to talk about meaningful missed schedules from Tesla, they have to go back to plans that are over half a year old.

Who cares if they build 4,500 or 4,800 or 5,100 a week?
The market.
 
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