New deliveries are excellent but we’re further behind on the ramp up

McHoffa

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#1
I’m extremely happy to see deliveries beginning for regular people but we’re far behind even the delayed schedule Elon gave in November.

He said and confirmed on the Q3 earnings call that although they wouldn’t get to 5k per week until end of Q1 (instead of this year), they expected to get to “thousands per week” this month. So far it’s looking like we might get to hundreds per week this month based on VINs seen and invitations going out.

It will be interesting to hear just where we are for Q4, but I’m no longer the optimist in the group.

When we start seeing thousands of new VINs registered every week then we’ll know the ramp is happening (and the rest of us non owners can finally look forward to our invitations!)
 

SoFlaModel3

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#2
The big missing link is that we don’t know how much cushion was built into our ranges and what the other people in our ranges will do once invited.

If they have cushion in the range for slowness to reach production goals and a good chunk of people delay, choose standard config, or long range without premium, or dual motor, or performance — those are all factors that play big on our estimates.

I still take the recent reports as a very positive sign though I share fears similar to yours that they’re still way behind ultimately. My hope that this recent surge continues to ratchet up exponentially and then we should all be golden!
 

Watts4me

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#3
In my personal opinion,I believe Elon spent millions trying to get a few cars out in July as to not look bad again based on his timetable. Things moved to quickly that it produced bottlenecks. Because of that testing procedure were skipped and the car was given to employees half-baked. Maybe even told to not drive it as much. Till the UI was worked on a bit more. Maybe that's why these employees couldn't make or show the car on video.
But that's just my guess of what's really went on behind closed doors.
 

Digital man

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#4
The way I see it, and probably the same for some of you, is that Tesla will, as an example.....Review the first twenty thousand reservations and move to the front, the group of reservations who ordered a vehicle with all the options available!
 

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#5
I’
It will be interesting to hear just where we are for Q4, but I’m no longer the optimist in the group.

When we start seeing thousands of new VINs registered every week then we’ll know the ramp is happening (and the rest of us non owners can finally look forward to our invitations!)
Welcome, welcome… I'm sad to see you here, but you're welcome nonetheless…
 

Maevra

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#6
In my personal opinion,I believe Elon spent millions trying to get a few cars out in July as to not look bad again based on his timetable. Things moved to quickly that it produced bottlenecks. Because of that testing procedure were skipped and the car was given to employees half-baked. Maybe even told to not drive it as much. Till the UI was worked on a bit more. Maybe that's why these employees couldn't make or show the car on video.
But that's just my guess of what's really went on behind closed doors.
I can assure you we weren’t told “don’t drive the car a lot”. In fact our delivery specialist asked us if we had any road trips planned and seemed very excited for us when we told him our plans.
After some misinformed reviews about “no FM/no AP” from third party sources, I understand why Tesla didn’t want UI or video reviews. Many people forget the “not YET available” part of the firmware rollouts.
I’m used to being an early adopter for tech stuff so it wasn’t a big deal to receive the updates, but I can understand other folks would have less patience for such things and just want it all set up from the get-go. FWIW, we loved the car as it was at delivery, love it even more now, and I’m sure a lot of soon-to-be new owners will agree.
 

Prodigal Son

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#7
After some misinformed reviews about “no FM/no AP” from third party sources, I understand why Tesla didn’t want UI or video reviews.
To be 100% fair, Tesla could be doing a heck of a lot better job of controlling this by just clarifying things. Almost half a year after the first people started getting delivery of their cars, it's still not 100% clear if the rear seats have heating hardware in them. Someone who took apart the seats says "no", the paperwork (marked CONFIDENTIAL, hilariously) that came with someone's car a few weeks ago says "yes". But Tesla keeps using ambiguous and vague wording on their front-facing information so they leave themselves open to heavy speculation.
 

Maevra

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#8
To be 100% fair, Tesla could be doing a heck of a lot better job of controlling this by just clarifying things. Almost half a year after the first people started getting delivery of their cars, it's still not 100% clear if the rear seats have heating hardware in them. Someone who took apart the seats says "no", the paperwork (marked CONFIDENTIAL, hilariously) that came with someone's car a few weeks ago says "yes". But Tesla keeps using ambiguous and vague wording on their front-facing information so they leave themselves open to heavy speculation.
Definitely, I agree with you there. It’s frustrating and they need improvement on that front.
 

McHoffa

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#9
My main point is that as of November Elon’s updated timeline, per the earnings call and not a tweet, was thousands per week in December. We’re definitely not seeing thousands per week yet or we’d have a floodgate of order invitations out, at the very least to current owners across the country.

Rod Lache - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Is that why – I guess, yeah off of a low number but are you getting to a few thousand per week already by the end of this year or did you mean to say that you'll have a few thousand produced in total by the year-end?

Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.

Oh, no, no. Again, it's really tricky because of that being exponential. If you were to move the calendar date by plus or minus a few weeks, you'd see gigantic differences in weekly output. But what I meant is something like a few thousand units per week at the end of Q4.
 

SoFlaModel3

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#10
My main point is that as of November Elon’s updated timeline, per the earnings call and not a tweet, was thousands per week in December. We’re definitely not seeing thousands per week yet or we’d have a floodgate of order invitations out, at the very least to current owners across the country.

Rod Lache - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Is that why – I guess, yeah off of a low number but are you getting to a few thousand per week already by the end of this year or did you mean to say that you'll have a few thousand produced in total by the year-end?

Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.

Oh, no, no. Again, it's really tricky because of that being exponential. If you were to move the calendar date by plus or minus a few weeks, you'd see gigantic differences in weekly output. But what I meant is something like a few thousand units per week at the end of Q4.
All we can hope for is exponential daily and weekly jumps over the next 18 days to see how close we are to that estimate.
 

tonymil

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#11
My main point is that as of November Elon’s updated timeline, per the earnings call and not a tweet, was thousands per week in December. We’re definitely not seeing thousands per week yet or we’d have a floodgate of order invitations out, at the very least to current owners across the country....
I have to assume that if there were positive news to report, Elon would tweet about it. His silence reinforces the belief that the news is bad and he is nowhere near producing thousands per week. :(
 

Dan Detweiler

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#12
I have to assume that if there were positive news to report, Elon would tweet about it. His silence reinforces the belief that the news is bad and he is nowhere near producing thousands per week. :(
There are plenty of other reasons for Elon's lack of comment. Perhaps he is busy fixing the production problems. Perhaps he has had the flu. Perhaps he has diarrhea and has been hopelessly confined to the bathroom. Perhaps he doesn't feel that the entire world needs to know about every last second of what he is doing and why.

They are making cars. They are making cars at an increased rate over when they opened configuration for the public. Cars are being delivered. I don't see why the automatic reaction has to be that he is hiding something. Pretty sure we will find out more information in due course. Q4 earnings call is only a couple of weeks away. Patience...that is what I am going to name my Model 3. One thing this whole process has taught me.

Dan
 

BigBri

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#14
We're seeing an increase which is the most important thing. There isn't that much difference between hitting a thousand a week now or hitting it in January. Things will ramp and escalate very quickly and we seem to have a noticeable increase lately so it appears to be beginning.

I suspect we won't see an Elon tweet that the bottleneck has been cleared and they're firing them out the door. He'll confirm it on the next conference call with analysts next year or we'll see it in the end of Q4 report if they did hit some milestone this month.
 

danzgator

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#15
But what I meant is something like a few thousand units per week at the end of Q4.
There's still 2.5 weeks left in the month and anything can happen. To meet Musk's guidance from that call, If it's physically possible, I assume that, they are trying to hit 2,000 the last week of the month to be able to say that they did it when quarterly results are released +/-1/3/18. If not, 1,900, so they can say they were close. Even anything over 1,000, Musk can say, 'yeah, I was off a couple weeks, we hit it second week of January' (or whenever it was actually hit) on the Q4 call. The Q4 call was 2/22/17 this year for 2018, so Tesla has +/-7 weeks to get to what Musk predicted would be accomplished by end of Q4 before it looks REALLY awful.
 

John

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#16
I think at this point they can't afford any optical stunts that require process disruption. There may have been leeway to monkey around a bit back in July using manual processes, but given that they are trying to tune a line for 5K/week—and with expansion 10K/week—I don't think it's likely that they'd ask anyone to do anything other than to get the process working smoothly end-to-end right now. It's less a matter of proving a point in December that getting there as soon as possible in a sustainable and continually rampable way.

Yeah, that's just me guessing. But in the larger scheme of things, "being right about that 'thousands a week in December' comment" seems like false precision at this point after so many missed estimates. Better to be "right in the end" than right for a moment in December.
 
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Kbm3

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#17
My main point is that as of November Elon’s updated timeline, per the earnings call and not a tweet, was thousands per week in December. We’re definitely not seeing thousands per week yet or we’d have a floodgate of order invitations out, at the very least to current owners across the country.

Rod Lache - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Is that why – I guess, yeah off of a low number but are you getting to a few thousand per week already by the end of this year or did you mean to say that you'll have a few thousand produced in total by the year-end?

Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.

Oh, no, no. Again, it's really tricky because of that being exponential. If you were to move the calendar date by plus or minus a few weeks, you'd see gigantic differences in weekly output. But what I meant is something like a few thousand units per week at the end of Q4.
You’re talking deliveries. Elon always talks in terms of production rate. If the production rate hits 500 cars / day on Dec. 31st, he will be correct. He also said if they don’t make that, they should hit it early in Jan.
 

chopr147

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#18
One thing I/we have learned about Elon is: He speaks the truth. The things he has predicted in the past have come true.
Now the timeline: Elon sucks at this part. :) So much so that it has become known as Tesla time. o_O
When Elon tweets a time for anything I just add 6 months to a year :)
 

McHoffa

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#19
You’re talking deliveries. Elon always talks in terms of production rate. If the production rate hits 500 cars / day on Dec. 31st, he will be correct. He also said if they don’t make that, they should hit it early in Jan.
I'm talking production. If production is that high, then orders would be taking place slightly ahead of it. We haven't seen a big enough jump in ordering yet. They haven't even gotten through all of the California current owners. When they are ready to make "thousands per week" we'd see ALL current owners getting their invitations followed very quickly by California non owners.