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Model Y reservations may be much later than March 2019

15K views 43 replies 17 participants last post by  Johnm6875 
#1 ·
According to an investor fireside chat in London, Tesla may change things up and wait until closer to production to open reservations for Model Y. We were expecting a reveal and reservations in March, but since production is probably 2020 that would mean just a reveal in March, if anything.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3414607-tesla-expect-dial-capital-raise
 
#2 ·
Or could it be that the Model Y may be further along than anticipated? Remember the clay model from a couple of years ago that was sitting right next to the veiled Model 3?

Also, bear in mind that Elon had already approved the production of Model Y prototypes about a month ago.
 
#4 ·
Or could it be that the Model Y may be further along than anticipated? Remember the clay model from a couple of years ago that was sitting right next to the veiled Model 3?
Also remember that later, during the Q2 2017 earnings call, Elon said that Tesla's executive team brought him back from the "cliffs of insanity". Adding, "after talking to my executive team, the Model Y will use a significant amount of Model 3 components."

So, even in late 2017, Tesla was still deciding on a basic chassis configuration for the Model Y. That suggests that they didn't get much farther past the "clay model" stage before shelving it to concentrate on the Model 3.

Reference
 
#3 ·
I think the push for profitability and the layoff that they did may have slowed things, actually. Though there was never really an official timeline, just some vague estimates.

From the Q3 earnings call in October 2018:

Musk: "So we've made significant progress on the Model Y. So in fact, I approved the prototype to into production recently. We saw - it will be 2020 before that's in volume production."
 
#5 ·
Here is a "I heard from a guy who heard from a guy..." addition (grains of salt and all that):

One of the Rangers that's been out to work on my car has been with Tesla since Roadster days. He went through orientation and is friends with a guy who has risen within the company. According to the Ranger, when he talked with this guy about the Y he was told...
"You wouldn't believe how far along we are already on the Y."

That was in September when the Ranger was out for my headlight replacement. So... there's that.
 
#6 ·
That report is from Seeking Alpha so take it with a grain of salt...

I imagine having reservations before production is a nice thing to confirm you’ve done the right thing.
 
#8 ·
IMO Tesla has to get the Y out ASAP. Competition is starting to come online and there will be a lot in 2020, and the Y is what they will need to blow them all away as the industry is starting to laugh off all car production vs SUVs. the X is just too expensive and inefficient.
 
#9 ·
Is it just me or is Tesla’s delivery timeline unrealistically aggressive? Unless there’s significant progress with the dreadnought manufacturing engine...

If “Priority list is Model Y, solar roof tiles, pickup, semi, Roadster” with the Roadster starting production in 2020, that gives only 2 years or so to accomplish all of the above. Even doubling the timeline at 4 years seems extremely difficult. Is Elon being overly optimistic again?
 
#10 ·
That's yet another reason why I believe the Model Y is almost here: use the same Model 3 platform and thus spend zero chassis rearchitecture time.

Not looking forward to the 12V lead acid battery requirement, however. But quite excited to see the timeline moved up, hopefully! Pure speculation here.
According to our last info on the matter at least some of the electrical innovations they originally planned for the new archetecture ARE still making their way into the Model Y. Here's the quote from the August earnings call in response to a question about whether the wiring harness improvements would still be in the Model Y,

"We're going to aim for maximum carryover, but that's one of the things we would include. We would aim to switch out the 1.5 km of wiring harness for a redundant flex circuit that's more in the order of 100 meters or so. And we'd aim to do that both for the Y, if it's called the Y…. and the 3 as well."

It wasn't specifically mentioned, but maybe the elimination of the 12V battery is still happening as well... I guess we'll have to wait and see.

Priority list is Model Y, solar roof tiles, pickup, semi, Roadster" with the Roadster starting production in 2020, that gives only 2 years or so to accomplish all of the above. Even doubling the timeline at 4 years seems extremely difficult. Is Elon being overly optimistic again?.
Don't forget that's a capital resource priority list, not a production priority list.
 
#11 ·
IMO Tesla has to get the Y out ASAP. Competition is starting to come online and there will be a lot in 2020, and the Y is what they will need to blow them all away as the industry is starting to laugh off all car production vs SUVs. the X is just too expensive and inefficient.
Isn't the X still more efficient than the upcoming e-tron?
 
#18 · (Edited)
Model 3 timeline:
Reveal 4/2016
"Pencils down" on Model 3 07/2016
First Handovers 7/2017
1st "real customer" deliveries early 2018
volume production 2nd half 2018

So if we are already past the 'Pencils down' point on the Model Y timeline, doesn't that imply that they ALREADY have pushed a reveal back compared to the Model 3 timeline? And if so, following a Mar 2019 reveal couldn't first handovers conceivably come at the end of 2019, with "real customers" ('volume production') taking delivery in mid-2nd half of 2020?
 
#19 ·
I would assume that "pencils down" will be after the reveal in March, if needed.
 
#21 · (Edited)
As others have mentioned, Model Y will likely share many components with Model 3. Over the next 6-8 months or so Tesla will be refining the Model 3 production process to improve production rate and reduce costs toward its target of building the $35K version for under $30K. It probably makes sense for Tesla to hold off on finalizing production plans for the Model Y so they can incorporate what they learn from improving the Model 3 production process during this time since Tesla will still be in the steep part of the learning curve.

The (now apparently outdated) Model Y production plan had Tesla ramping up to 7K per week in Fremont from June-December 2020 and 5K per week in Shanghai from October 2020 to Feb. 2021. https://electrek.co/2018/12/03/tesla-model-y-third-row-gigafactory-production-leaked-documents/

To accomplish a speedy and cost effective ramp up to 12K/week it makes sense to first streamline Model 3 production as much as possible and then copy/paste part of that for the Model Y (with some tweaks/improvements) and also apply what it learns to the unique Model Y components.

In any case, based on the revised timeline for Model Y production, it makes sense that Tesla would hold off a bit before holding the Model Y reveal.
 
#25 ·
The front fascia was modified mainly for aesthetics since the original design was polarizing.

Any news on whether the Y will have falcon wing doors? Has that changed since Elon’s tweet from years ago?
 
#26 ·
Any news on whether the Y will have falcon wing doors? Has that changed since Elon's tweet from years ago?
Nope. That tweet was the single comment on the matter and it's never been mentioned again.

If you want them, then I guess you can point to that and be hopeful. From my perspective as someone who does not want them, that tweet was made so long ago in terms of the Model Y's development, I give it no credence whatsoever now. And honestly, if the Model Y is the budget Model X, then the Falcon Wing Doors are the first thing to go in terms of complexity and cost.
 
#28 ·
I'm excited Audi is getting this car out the door. I like my A3 e-tron for what it is- it's certainly the nicest car I've owned (so far! :)). But it's definitely to my mind more Model X competition than Model Y at it's price. I'm sure you'll be able to spec a Model Y up to that price if you want Performance Dual Motor.

Tesla's not going to take over the automotive world, people will always want different style and brand options. So here's one more that will get some more people on board.

I still maintain that Tesla's greatest advantage is the Supercharger network. If you don't have a Tesla, road trips can be a messy and frustrating affair.
 
#30 · (Edited)
I'll take the Autopilot/FSD stuff at face value- as internal projections. But my expectations for functionality are only ever going to be based on what's currently released. I can say, "What progress has been made in the last two years" and try to map that to what progress might be made by the time Model Y hits the road, but that's always going to be a fuzzy calculation.

AWD only would be interesting- I personally think there's probably a healthy market of people who want the size and styling of an SUV, but don't need the AWD aspect; people who would probably rather spend $$$ on more range or premium interior over AWD if they had the choice. That said, I think AWD FIRST makes a lot of sense.

I don't see less than $40k base if AWD come standard. And the 250 base range seems like a reasonable improvement considering we're supposed to see new cell chemistry this year.

Exciting...
 
#31 ·
I'll take the Autopilot/FSD stuff at face value- as internal projections. But my expectations for functionality are only ever going to be based on what's currently released. I can say, "What progress has been made in the last two years" and try to map that to what progress might be made by the time Model Y hits the road, but that's always going to be a fuzzy calculation.

AWD only would be interesting- I personally think there's probably a healthy market of people who want the size and styling of an SUV, but don't need the AWD aspect; people would would probably spend on more range or premium interior over AWD if they had the choice. That said, I think AWD FIRST makes a lot of sense.

I don't see less than $40k base if AWD come standard. And the 250 base range seems like a reasonable improvement considering we're supposed to see new cell chemistry this year.

Exciting...
I really really hope the long range comes with 400 plus miles of range. If that happens I will sell my last ICE car I have and go all in with electric
 
#34 ·
350-400 miles would be great. I'd expect it to sell initially in the $60K range though (long range, AWD, premium interior, paint upgrade, etc). My 3 was $63K with EAP and FSD - Now wishing I had gone for the performance version - but this one is fantastic though. Planning on reserving a Y on the first day.
 
#38 ·
Tomorrow Elon Musk will attend a official groundbreaking ceremony for Gigafactory 3 in Shanghai, China. In a series of tweets this evening, Musk added a few details to production plans. Key points-

• Model 3 production to start at Giga3 by the end of the year
• Giga3 will be for production of more "affordable" versions of Model 3/Y for Greater China.
• Model S/X and higher cost versions of Model 3/Y will be built in the US for world market, INCLUDING China.
• Explicitly, Musk said "affordable models must be made on same continent as customers"

Where the line is for "higher cost" is anyones guess. Dual Motor with upgraded Interior? Performance Dual Motor?

Hopefully we'll get some more tidbits tomorrow.
 
#39 ·
Just realized this SUV is either low or the wheels are enormous. Doesn't seem proportional. 3rd row seating might make the Model Y look like a station wagon.
Tire Wheel Vehicle Automotive lighting Hood
 
#40 ·
Just realized this SUV is either low or the wheels are enormous. Doesn't seem proportional. 3rd row seating might make the Model Y look like a station wagon. View attachment 20663
That would be great. A bit more like a station wagon = cross over would make it a selling hit in Europe.
 
#42 ·
So. Not sure where to put this, but this seems to be an OK spot.

I just got a random phone call which turned out to be Tesla. They were calling to see if I was still interested in a model 3 test drive as they now had home test drives in my area. As she was saying this she stopped, and said, "Oh wait.. you already took delivery. How are you liking your car?" I told her I've got like 15,000 miles on it and I could never go back to anything else. She then asked, "Are you going to the launch in March?" To what I replied, "What launch, the Falcon 9 heavy?" Which at the time I thought the second launch was scheduled for the March timeframe (looks more like April now). She came back with no, the Model Y event. Which I don't remember hearing anything about yet. But I could just be out of the loop on the Y.

So there seems to be some churn going on that there is going to be a March event for Tesla, and which could be the model Y. But then again, take it as a grain of salt, it is coming from a sales person so I don't know how much I'd trust the source.

But I figured I'd share the story anyway.
 
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