Model Y pull quotes from Q4 Q&A

11thIndian

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#1
I've gone thru the transcript from the Tesla Q4 Q&A and pulled out all the relevant Model Y portions. Enjoy.

Elon Musk on New Products:

“In terms of the new products, with Model Y, we've completed ensuring of end design of Model Y, and the parts are - the tooling is going out for production Model Y. Three quarters of the Model Y is common with the Model 3, so it's a much lower CapEx per vehicle than Model 3. And the risk is also quite low.

This is in contrast to Model S versus Model X where the theory was - I think Model X, we just - it's sort of Model X to be like the sort of the Fabergé egg of cars. It's an incredible vehicle and probably one - probably nothing like it will ever be made again, and maybe it shouldn't. But it is a work of art. It's a special work of art.

But the commonality with the Model S is limited. It was only about maybe 30% in common with the Model S, whereas Model Y is, I think, 76% was what it got in common with the Model 3. And we're most likely going to put Model Y production right next to - in fact, as part of our main Gigafactory in Nevada.

So it will just be right there. Batteries and powertrains will come out and go straight into the vehicle. So that also reduces our risk of execution and reduces the cost of having to transfer parts from California to Nevada. It's not a for sure thing, but it's quite likely, and it's our default plan.

I would expect Model Y will probably be - the demand for Model Y will be maybe 50% higher than Model 3, could be even double. The - as I understand it, the midsized SUV segment is the - worldwide is the most popular type of vehicle. So we'll probably see a higher volume of Y than 3.”

Elon Musk on where Model Y will be produced:

"As I mentioned earlier, the Model Y, we think, most likely will be produced at Gigafactory, but that's - unless we encounter some obstacle - that's the default plan that we're proceeding towards. And it's fast, low risk and also low CapEx. In terms of the - I mean, probably there's like initial production of Model Y, very low volume, probably next year.

But then it always takes time to ramp up any production system, and that's difficult to predict the shape of that S-curve. So we feel confident in saying there will be production volume of Model Y by the end of next year, but in between beginning of next year with low volume, it always starts with very low growth exponentially - from beginning of last year to end of next year, it's difficult to break that ramp. So that's our expectation for Y."

Manufacturing Efficiency:

Deepak Ahuja, "The other aspect of this, Elon, which we've been doing extremely well, is capital efficiency. We have dramatically cut back on capital expense, and we are spending it in a very efficient manner. We talked about it in the letter on Model 3 and Gigafactory Shanghai. We talked about it for Model Y. There are just so many learnings that we are incorporating, and we just want to beat what we did with Model 3 and the kind of spending we had for the returns we got."

Elon Musk, "Absolutely. I mean, we're confident that our CapEx per unit of production for Shanghai factory and for Model Y will be less than half of what we did for Model 3. Internally, we think it might be a quarter but that's probably too good to believe, but it's definitely less than half."

And that's it. Sadly no confirmation of unveiling date, but the comments above seem to indicate that they hope to start production early next year and ramp thru 2020.
 
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11thIndian

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#3
Y would you say that? :)

Getting exciting. I only really started following Tesla in the Months leading up to the Model 3 unveiling. At that point the rumblings/rumors/mentions of the Model Y were already out there, and I knew it was likely to be the best option for me; but it was going to be a looooonnnnggg wait.

And here we are a couple years later. I admin a facebook group that's Model Y focused, and I'll say that based on how membership requests are ramping up, that the potential for this vehicle is huge! I really can't believe we don't have a confirmed date for the unveiling at this point.
 

Michael Russo

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#4
Should be coming soon. An exciting unveiling for sure!! :)
 

EarlyBuyer

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#7
Looking forward to the unveiling and happy to read 76% of the Y will be from the 3. Great efficiency and for those 3 owners who may want to move into a Y; it will be a familiar vehicle with a quick learning curve.
 

webdriverguy

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#8
Looking forward to the unveiling and happy to read 76% of the Y will be from the 3. Great efficiency and for those 3 owners who may want to move into a Y; it will be a familiar vehicle with a quick learning curve.
I might be crazy but I really hope the base model starts at 280 plus miles of range
 

Bokonon

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#9
I might be crazy but I really hope the base model starts at 280 plus miles of range
Speculating wildly here, but I expect the base Y to have the Model 3 MR pack or similar, which would give it something like 235-240 miles of rated range. That would keep it above the magic 200-mile threshold, as well as above the cheaper, 220-mile base Model 3.

Long Range Model Y (with the Model 3 LR pack) would be somewhere around 280-285 miles of range... though maybe Tesla will voluntarily reduce it so that it's closer to the 270-mile rating of the new base Model X. Then you'd end up with a vehicle lineup something like this (assuming Model Y has AWD standard and PUP stays bundled with the Long Range trim):

Model 3 Standard - 220 miles - $35K
Model Y Standard - 240 miles - $45K?
Model 3 Mid Range - 264 miles - $44K (...if it remains available...)
Model Y Long Range - 270 miles - $59K?
Model X Standard - 270 miles - $88K
Model X Extended Range - 295 miles - $96K
Model 3 Long Range - 310 miles - $49K
Model S Standard - 310 miles - $85K
Model S Extended Range - 335 miles - $93K
 

webdriverguy

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#10
Speculating wildly here, but I expect the base Y to have the Model 3 MR pack or similar, which would give it something like 235-240 miles of rated range. That would keep it above the magic 200-mile threshold, as well as above the cheaper, 220-mile base Model 3.

Long Range Model Y (with the Model 3 LR pack) would be somewhere around 280-285 miles of range... though maybe Tesla will voluntarily reduce it so that it's closer to the 270-mile rating of the new base Model X. Then you'd end up with a vehicle lineup something like this (assuming Model Y has AWD standard and PUP stays bundled with the Long Range trim):

Model 3 Standard - 220 miles - $35K
Model Y Standard - 240 miles - $45K?
Model 3 Mid Range - 264 miles - $44K (...if it remains available...)
Model Y Long Range - 270 miles - $59K?
Model X Standard - 270 miles - $88K
Model X Extended Range - 295 miles - $96K
Model 3 Long Range - 310 miles - $49K
Model S Standard - 310 miles - $85K
Model S Extended Range - 335 miles - $93K
If model Y long range is 270 miles (in winter this range will be even more affected) then I am out. Looks like I will be waiting for 3 years atleast and might take a look at the rivian SUV
 

JCE

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#11
If model Y long range is 270 miles (in winter this range will be even more affected) then I am out. Looks like I will be waiting for 3 years atleast and might take a look at the rivian SUV
If range is that important and you are thinking of a Rivian-then a Model X seems more like a fit for you than a Y.
 

MelindaV

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#13
This is, of course, all hypothetical as we do not know what the range in the Y will be.
or when/if Rivian is available, what it's battery longevity will be (will it be like a Tesla or a Gen 1 Leaf?), how/where it will charge, etc.
Tesla is a known entity, even with a new model. Anything that hasn't yet been sold is up in the air.
 

11thIndian

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#14
Looking forward to the unveiling and happy to read 76% of the Y will be from the 3. Great efficiency and for those 3 owners who may want to move into a Y; it will be a familiar vehicle with a quick learning curve.
Not TOO many. Cause as current owners they’ll get priortity in front of me for reservations.... :oops:
 

11thIndian

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#15
Speculating wildly here, but I expect the base Y to have the Model 3 MR pack or similar, which would give it something like 235-240 miles of rated range. That would keep it above the magic 200-mile threshold, as well as above the cheaper, 220-mile base Model 3.

Long Range Model Y (with the Model 3 LR pack) would be somewhere around 280-285 miles of range... though maybe Tesla will voluntarily reduce it so that it's closer to the 270-mile rating of the new base Model X.
That does look logical on the page, but I find it really hard to believe that they’d cripple the Model Y with a max range of 270mi. Model Y is going to be their biggest seller- I think they need to match long range of the Model 3, if not beat it.

Biggest questions in my mind as we head towards the event.

1. Dual motor standard? I think there’s a lot of people who want mid-sized SUV for size/cargo space that don’t need AWD. So it will be interesting to see if Tesla wants a MY at 5K lower base price. If they do do it, I’d expect it to be at the end of the production ramp, like base Model 3.
2. 3rd Row seating. Rumoured in the leaked documents. But definitely could be a big differentiator between Model Y and Model X.
3. Falcon Wing Doors. I don’t think anyone who wants them would NOT buy a Model Y if it doens’t have them. But there seems to be loads of people who (like me) want roof storage and for whom it would be a deal killer. I think there out, full stop. Too complex and costly for a lower cost SUV.
 

webdriverguy

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That does look logical on the page, but I find it really hard to believe that they’d cripple the Model Y with a max range of 270mi. Model Y is going to be their biggest seller- I think they need to match long range of the Model 3, if not beat it.

Biggest questions in my mind as we head towards the event.

1. Dual motor standard? I think there’s a lot of people who want mid-sized SUV for size/cargo space that don’t need AWD. So it will be interesting to see if Tesla wants a MY at 5K lower base price. If they do do it, I’d expect it to be at the end of the production ramp, like base Model 3.
2. 3rd Row seating. Rumoured in the leaked documents. But definitely could be a big differentiator between Model Y and Model X.
3. Falcon Wing Doors. I don’t think anyone who wants them would NOT buy a Model Y if it doens’t have them. But there seems to be loads of people who (like me) want roof storage and for whom it would be a deal killer. I think there out, full stop. Too complex and costly for a lower cost SUV.
Great points. I made my earlier remark about 270m being not enough because for a car shipping in year and half from now tgat would be a little disappointing. 360 miles would be a sweet spot for long range model Y. And also they are not doing to hold back model x and s refresh for a long time. Both those models are going to see range improvements.
 

11thIndian

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#17
Great points. I made my earlier remark about 270m being not enough because for a car shipping in year and half from now tgat would be a little disappointing. 360 miles would be a sweet spot for long range model Y. And also they are not doing to hold back model x and s refresh for a long time. Both those models are going to see range improvements.
Even if it has the same Long Range as Model 3, it’s going to be twice as convienient as it is now, since by the time Model Y’s are on the roads Supercharger V3 will be well into rollout, meaning a 1/2 charging time. But sure I’ll take more range if they offer it. :)
 

webdriverguy

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Even if it has the same Long Range as Model 3, it’s going to be twice as convienient as it is now, since by the time Model Y’s are on the roads Supercharger V3 will be well into rollout, meaning a 1/2 charging time. But sure I’ll take more range if they offer it. :)
V3 supercharging will be nice but battery and charging innovations must still continue. I know 90% of the population don’t need range of (350 miles just an example) but EVs needs to have the same convinience as ICE cars when recharging.
 

11thIndian

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#19
This is really the exciting part. In terms of range and efficiency, ICE cars plateaued a long time ago. Where as if you think 10-20 years down the road, charging speed and range have dizzying room for innovation. 1000mi vehicles that can charge in 10 min isn’t so far fetched when you consider how far things have come in the last 10 years.

Extremely narrow end of the wedge is “solar cars” where the car itself is generating any measurable amount of energy. But solar is another area with a long and exciting road ahead.