If I were placing a new reservation today, I'd anchor my expectations on the upper end of the delivery estimate and hope to be pleasantly surprised.
To break it down a little further... Given that Tesla is now shifting their Model 3 focus to margins and profitability (on top of manufacturing efficiency), I'd expect the production sequence from here on out to be:
1. RWD + LR Battery + Premium (starts at $49K)
- Already in production and being delivered
2. Performance (starts at $78K)
- Confirmed to be the next configuration for production, which starts in July
3. AWD + LR Battery + Premium (starts at $54K)
- Confirmed to start production shortly after Performance, likely in late July or early August
4. AWD + SR Battery + Premium (starts at $45K)
5. RWD + SR Battery + Premium (starts at $40K)
- Likely to be the first configurations produced with the Standard Battery. Could also go to production with the Standard Interior configurations (see 6 and 7 below), but there haven't been any Standard Interior sightings to date, so I'm inclined to think that the versions with the Premium Upgrades Package will go to production first, with Standard Interior to follow later.
- Elon has estimated that production of the $35K base car will start 3-6 months after Tesla hits 5K/week production rate. If that rate is hit in June, these configurations would hypothetically go to production sometime between September and the end of the year.
- My personal guesstimate: early November production, deliveries start after Thanksgiving.
6. AWD + SR Battery + Standard Interior - starts at $40K
7. RWD + SR Battery + Standard Interior - starts at $35K
- Likely to be the last configurations to go to production.
- My personal guesstimate: early December production, handful of California deliveries prior to the end of the quarter for bragging rights, but general deliveries begin right after the New Year