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Model 3 production rumours I have

21K views 118 replies 34 participants last post by  MelindaV 
#1 ·
I had a Skype conversation with someone a bit closer to Tesla than any of us and got a bit more information.

Please keep in mind this is not official or verified but third-hand information given to me.

This person spoke to some Tesla engineers while they were onsite and the gist for Model 3 production is as follows (again, this is a RUMOUR and I cannot verify it) :

  • Plans are to ramp Model 3 production as fast as possible once it begins to reach 5000 cars A WEEK!
  • Contrary to what Elon said initial production will be
  1. Big battery and rear wheel drive first
  2. 2 months later: big battery and dual motor drive
  3. 2 months later: everything else
  • Tesla has already made some initial body panel dies and stamped out several hundred panels (Michigan Tesla facility)
  • There is a Model 3 prototype with Ludicrous that was able to achieve 0-60mph in .... 2 SECONDS
  • Model 3 performance models are still expected to be in the low 3 second range
That's all I have at the moment but the consensus is that will be a killer car that will blow everyone away and that production is still on track for later this summer. The Fremont factory is indeed (confirmed by Tesla) halting Model S/X production for 10 days February 18th to install Model 3 production line tooling and they have a buffer of Model S/X to that deliveries are not significantly affected.
 
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#7 ·
My thinking is that the 2 second performance is in fact the "Maximum plaid" drivetrain being tested on the Model 3 platform for the new Roadster. Tesla had mentioned that the Roadster would possibly be built on the Model 3 platform.

I still stand that a Model 3 with Ludicrous should be able to achieve low 3 second 0-60 times.
 
#9 ·
I find it hard to believe they would be a full 4 months into it before all battery/motor configurations are being built. At 5,000/week that puts 87,000 cars ahead of a single $35,000 version having a chance of being seen.

Until we actually see how things are coming out of Fremont, I still expect the regional (west to east then international then RHD) plan to be the primary factor. And expect to see prioritizing within each region of more expensive builds first, but not providing any California 'base' cars before moving onto the next delivery region will not go over well and will open up massive PR issues.
A specific part not being available may delay a configuration, but can't see that being a front motor since that is coming from inside Tesla.
 
#18 ·
I agree 100%! Being that this is the first relatively affordable Tesla for many, not releasing some base model cars will upset many. It will give the anti Tesla trolls a reason to knock Tesla agin by saying' "see I told you it won't be $35k and see this is why the Bolt is a better and more affordable option". Of course this is not true because a more base model will be available, but the sooner the better. I myself want RWD base level with AP with battery being my secondary concern, so I am already worried.o_O
 
#10 ·
They are going to have to do what makes the best sense for the well being of the company. If this is how they need to do things to best make it work...so be it.

One thing that concerns me about this whole pre-reservation process is that we as reservationists have spent the last year doing nothing but speculating on what will be (me included). In many cases I fear that we have convinced ourselves that something will or won't happen. The end result may prove disappointing to our preconceived ideas of what the car "must" be. I hope this doesn't drive too many from the reality that this is going to be an amazing machine. I can only think of one thing that would keep me from this being my next vehicle, and that is if the price somehow skyrocketed for some unknown reason.

Dan
 
#11 ·
The end result may prove disappointing to our preconceived ideas of what the car "must" be. I hope this doesn't drive too many from the reality that this is going to be an amazing machine.
like people hearing there will not be a 100kWh battery and reading that as "it must then be a 95kWh battery".
THAT I think will be the big piece a number of people will be disappointed in because so many take speculation en mass as truth.
 
#12 ·
Correct all, I agree. Speculation is one thing, but until we have hard facts it's all still unclear. Good thing like Trevor reported is that Telsa is making progress towards the Model 3 goal. Actual configurations, colour choices and number of Model 3's that actually get built AND delivered this CY is still a big unknown - contrary to what Trevor's source speculates. There are still a number of challenges and things that can affect production start date and numbers.

I am 100% confident that Tesla will deliver Model 3's this year, as to how many and what configurations, that is still a guess. Hopefully the next reveal will provide more accurate data regarding the rollout plans and timing, at least what Tesla will be aiming for. Achieving that could be another issue.
 
#13 ·
Seems to me that Tesla can't plan what to build until they know what the reservationists want.
I would support a plan that allowed us to configure a car, with a commitment of cash, shortly after the last reveal.
This would give Tesla better information for production planning, more cash to work with, and give us some certainty about options and delivery.
 
#17 ·
Since range is always the first question asked and the main concern for the general public and EV-ignorant car journalists, it seems logical to me that they will first produce big battery cars.

On the other hand it would also seem unsensible to not produce and test a certain number of base-model cars, which will sell for $ 35,000. Feeding journalistic controversy that Tesla is not keeping its word that the car will be $ 35k.

Glad to be not among the first and in Europe. By the time my car will be delivered I expect all kinks to be ironed out.
 
#22 ·
So to get the car slightly sooner, you would compromise on what you want to be driving for the next x years?
I plan to keep my anticipated options list regardless of what priority is given to specifics. If I were buying something to be used for 6 months, yeah, I'd rethink options, but I expect to have this car at least 10 years and if getting what I want means it'll take 2 months longer for it to arrive, then that is what it is.
 
#23 ·
Elon in the past said their plan was to build more optioned and profitable cars first just Like Model S and X but given the backlog at this point it's not out of the question they would go for a much faster ramp this time around by doing simpler configs first.

I'm of the same mind that for optics sake they should build some low end $35k base cars otherwise the media will jump onto the negative bandwagon again like they always do.

As far as options go we most likely won't know until the configurator goes online. Tesla so far has never revealed options and pricing at reveal events.

One thing the model3tracker.info site should reveal in short term is what configs are causing delays. For example the Model X with the cold weather option caused production to be out at the bottom along with the 5 seat option. When production starts I'll be watching the site closely to see what trends float to the top
 
#24 ·
Plans are to ramp Model 3 production as fast as possible once it begins to reach 5000 cars A WEEK!
5000 a week => 250,000 a year, just half the aim for 2018 of 500k a year.
Let's suppose the 5000 a week is for the end of 2017. And that the aim is to double that end of 2018.

July 1st has been mentioned for the day that production should start.
Suppose that real on speed production starts in August 2017:
August until December = 5 / 12 * 250,000 = 104,000.
This means that there is just over one month to start up production and ramp up from 0 to 5000 a week. :eek:
Which seems almost impossible to me.
I really doubt 100,000 Model 3 cars will be achieved in 2017.
Maybe 5000 a week by the end of this year. And 50-75,000 in the whole of 2017.
Suppose 2018 starts at 5000 a week and ends at 10,000 a week, then the total for 2018 will be 350-400,000.

5000 a week, 5 days, 8 hours => 1000 a day => 125 per hour => 2+ per minute! o_O
7 days, 24 hours => 714 a day => 30 per hour => 1 every 2 minutes!!!! Even this is terrible fast!
And in 2018 Tesla wants to double the production to 500,000 cars per year => 1 every minute!!!
OMG!
 
#26 ·
5000 a week, 5 days, 8 hours => 1000 a day => 125 per hour => 2+ per minute! o_O
7 days, 24 hours => 714 a day => 30 per hour => 1 every 2 minutes!!!! Even this is terrible fast!
And in 2018 Tesla wants to double the production to 500,000 cars per year => 1 every minute!!!
OMG!
they do run the Fremont plant nearly round the clock. I think it's something closer to:
5000 a week, 6 days a week, 20 hours = 833 a day => 41 an hour => .68 a minute

and Elon has said cars should be exiting the line faster than a walking pace. One a minute would be about that.
 
#27 ·
Why 6 days and 20 hours? Why not 24/7? In my country that's 3 rotating workshifts of 8 hours.
 
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#28 ·
just a wild ass guess...
I vaguely remember a tesla quote from a year or so ago about the factory production hours and I remember it being not quite 100%, but close, and can't recall the exact. so 6/20 seems about 'not quite 100%' ;)

it's also becoming common around here to have a 40 hr work week as 4 10hr shifts.... so 20 hrs could be 2 shifts
 
#29 ·
If you have a continuous production line it's always better to prevent stops. Those are costly and always the moments when mistakes are made.
On an almost fully automated production line the people are there just for overview and trouble shooting. They can stagger their breaks.
 
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#32 ·
That would make 100,000 cars in 2017 possible. Thought I still believe that to be incredibly fast.
Why "full 8000"? For 500,000 a year it needs to be 10,000 a week.
8000 Model 3 => 400,000 a year. Maybe plus 100,000 S and X?
 
#41 ·
Yes, but that won't be realised in a year. Expansion will take a few years at least.
 
#44 ·
Exactly, till the expansion of Fremont and the functioning of GF2 in Europe (2022 in my view), Tesla will have a hell of a job to produce enough cars to prevent the backlog from growing, in stead of diminishing.
The number of cars produced per week / minute necessary to realise that is daunting, to say the least. That becomes more and more clear.
 
#70 ·
Exactly, till the expansion of Fremont and the functioning of GF2 in Europe (2022 in my view), Tesla will have a hell of a job to produce enough cars to prevent the backlog from growing, in stead of diminishing.
The number of cars produced per week / minute necessary to realise that is daunting, to say the least. That becomes more and more clear.
Well, at least we can all take solace waiting for our Model 3 to be built by watching all the shorter's heads explode. :)
 
#47 ·
@Guy Weathersby -- Oh, my guesses are just as likely to be perfectly ignored by anyone and everyone that needs actual evidence, and that's perfectly OK with me. It's just that pickup trucks are among the more gross polluters, as well as the very best sellers in the U.S. It is because of that status, and the potential market for them, that a second North American Gigafactory may come to pass, when Tesla decides they can offer a viable fully electric alternative. At one time I thought a second Gigafactory and assembly plant would go to China, though it might not be labeled as such. I understand why people point to Europe, but with the defeat of 'clean diesel' it is more likely that region will be moving to electric drive in a more timely fashion as a whole. Though Tesla will be a global company, I think there will always be a focus here at home. That's all.
 
#48 ·

Absolutely, [USER=4043]@Red Sage
, hence plans already in place to double the capacity @ Fremont... I also think that in time there could be cars made @ GF1 before a NA GF3 is completed... Not to say GF4 in case of a potential AP location for GF3 (China if conditions are right?) driven by the huge Chinese demand...
Ok, now we're not even guessing, we're levitating...! :D[/user]
 
#50 ·
The current crowing 'leader' in the segment is the Alfa Romeo Giulia Quadrifoglio, which boasts of its 'class leading' acceleration at 0-60 MPH in 3.7 seconds. I expect a Ludicrous equipped Performance edition of the Tesla Model ☰ will beat that by at least 1.0 seconds to start. And, likely within 18-24 months from launch, it will lower its own benchmark by another 0.5 seconds or so. Thus, I predict 2.7 seconds for Ludicrous, and 2.2 seconds before 2020. This is achievable. Watch.
 
#51 ·
My prediction is that once GF1 is complete, it will also be self sustained in that it will be capable of producing complete Teslas in house and efficiently. At that point, Tesla might consider transforming Fremont into a GF to streamline and improve production efficiency.
 
#53 ·
That is contrary to the role that till now has been publicised for GF1; main producer of battery cells and connected appliances.
 
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#56 ·
I had a Skype conversation with someone a bit closer to Tesla than any of us and got a bit more information.

Please keep in mind this is not official or verified but third-hand information given to me.

This person spoke to some Tesla engineers while they were onsite and the gist for Model 3 production is as follows (again, this is a RUMOUR and I cannot verify it) :

  • Plans are to ramp Model 3 production as fast as possible once it begins to reach 5000 cars A WEEK!
  • Contrary to what Elon said initial production will be
  1. Big battery and rear wheel drive first
  2. 2 months later: big battery and dual motor drive
  3. 2 months later: everything else
  • Tesla has already made some initial body panel dies and stamped out several hundred panels (Michigan Tesla facility)
  • There is a Model 3 prototype with Ludicrous that was able to achieve 0-60mph in .... 2 SECONDS
  • Model 3 performance models are still expected to be in the low 3 second range
That's all I have at the moment but the consensus is that will be a killer car that will blow everyone away and that production is still on track for later this summer. The Fremont factory is indeed (confirmed by Tesla) halting Model S/X production for 10 days February 18th to install Model 3 production line tooling and they have a buffer of Model S/X to that deliveries are not significantly affected.
It may make sense for the initial CA rollout, but they're going to seriously disappoint other owners as they head east if they're only offering RWD on the early orders. I will definitely not order a RWD car.
 
#57 ·
I've been wondering if there will be any surprises in the more mundane parts of the car.
Like a more efficient inverter, or high-current parts being standard in all cars. (C'mon, toss that inconel in there.)
People may be initially disappointed in there not being a 100 kWh version, but with a lighter car, new cells, and better guts people may come to accept that you don't need 100 kWh to get 300 miles of EPA range. 85 kWh may get you there, for instance.
 
#58 ·
I'm pretty sure there will indeed be lots of little tweaks to many "mundane" parts that will result in better efficiency, starting with a clean slate should have allowed them to incorporate a lot of new tech since the design of the S/X components. Note the reduction in weight and drag compared to the S should allow them to crack 300 miles on an 85 or 90 kWh pack, so if there are significant improvements elsewhere they may even get it beyond that. Not sure Inconel will be in any part of the base version, that stuff's frightfully expensive. But I do hope it's at least part of the "P" cars, I want a bumper sticker that says "Powered By Rocket Parts".
 
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