Model 3 production guidance extrapolation

  • SUPPORT THE SITE AND ENJOY A PREMIUM EXPERIENCE!
    Welcome to Tesla Owners Online, four years young! For a low subscription fee, you will receive access to an ad-free version of TOO. We now offer yearly memberships! You can subscribe via this direct link:
    https://teslaownersonline.com/account/upgrades

    SUBSCRIBE TO OUR YOUTUBE CHANNEL!
    Did you know we have a YouTube channel that's all about Tesla? Lots of Tesla information, fun, vlogs, product reviews, and a weekly Tesla Owners Online Podcast as well!

Joined
May 4, 2017
Messages
7
Location
Tampere
Country
Country
#1
Based on current guidance of 1k/week in week 1 January, 2500/week by end of March and 5000/week by End of June, model 3 production in H1 2018 looks like to be around 73.8k. With current production lines producing 5000/week in H2(130k in 26 weeks) and new production lines being built, 2018 full year is expected to be more than 203k.

S curve model here:
https://yzdedream.github.io/ProductionEstimate/

You can put your own data into the chart. e.g. change the numbers to 80%
 
Last edited:

Michael Russo

MSM Team Founder, Midnight S≡R≡NITY rider
Moderator
TOO Supporting Member
Joined
Oct 15, 2016
Messages
5,804
Location
Pau, France
Tesla Owner
Model S
Country
Country
#2
Thanks, @Kelvin ... and welcome to the forum !
Are you in Canton, GA (then neighbor to @Dan Detweiler ...) or Canton, OH... or another one? (Trust you don’t mean Guangzhou in China... :D)
Mike
 

Michael Russo

MSM Team Founder, Midnight S≡R≡NITY rider
Moderator
TOO Supporting Member
Joined
Oct 15, 2016
Messages
5,804
Location
Pau, France
Tesla Owner
Model S
Country
Country
#4
oh my home town is exactly Guangzhou China but I'm living in Europe now.

Edit: changed to current location:):)
Oh, ok!! Well, we’re glad to have you as I said!!
How long have you been in Finland?
Thanks again for your input on the S curve. When did you reserve?
 

eye.surgeon

Active member
Joined
Feb 20, 2017
Messages
46
Location
California
Country
Country
#8
Based on current guidance of 1k/week in week 1 January, 2500/week by end of March and 5000/week by End of June, model 3 production in H1 2018 looks like to be around 73.8k. With current production lines producing 5000/week in H2(130k in 26 weeks) and new production lines being built, 2018 full year is expected to be more than 203k.

S curve model here:
https://yzdedream.github.io/ProductionEstimate/

You can put your own data into the chart. e.g. change the numbers to 80%
Good start, now factor in that previous Tesla guidance has more than doubled the actual real production and you're looking about around 100k this year.
 

Michael Russo

MSM Team Founder, Midnight S≡R≡NITY rider
Moderator
TOO Supporting Member
Joined
Oct 15, 2016
Messages
5,804
Location
Pau, France
Tesla Owner
Model S
Country
Country
#10
It's been 3+ years in Finland, loving it.

I have online reservation on 11th April 2016:)
Well done!! Trust you’ll get to enjoy your Model 3 quite a few months before me then, since I only reserved on 10/10/16... :confused:
 
Joined
May 4, 2017
Messages
7
Location
Tampere
Country
Country
#11
That is awesome, Kelvin!
Is there any way to find the total number built for each week using this tool?
Thanks! Accumulative number by week could be shown in the mouseover tooltips, or it could be shown in editable weeks below the chart. Which one do you think is better?