Model 3 production delays...

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McHoffa

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#21
That could be a fair critique. I don’t really keep track of it that way in my head, but half the time they get the real scoop for anybody else, so I’m not quick discount unless it’s obvious garbage either. This feels like garbage, but I was hopeful...
They make a new article every time a Model 3 is spotted or Elon Musk sneezes these days.
 

BigBri

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#22
Electrek is a business and sometimes there is almost no news. Last few weeks have been pretty slow since the mid 500s VIN deliveries. So they take whispers and make them sound like roars. There was almost a 0% chance they'd get the ramp off the ground without some issues and setbacks. Setbacks mean less cars delivered today but you can bet they're working to make the ramp even faster once the constraints are lifted. Elon seemed confident they'd hit their stride come December so I'm sticking with that.
 

danzgator

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#23
They make a new article every time a Model 3 is spotted or Elon Musk sneezes these days.
Again, probably a fair criticism, but still one of the best sources of real Tesla news available as well. If I stopped following them on Twitter, I’d definitely not always be on top of the latest news. There are a lot more annoying sources that I’ve stopped following because the good did not outweigh the bad.
 

3V Pilot

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#25
Yeah it feels like even less than that. Seems like not much progress has been made on the speed of the production line.
Could be production line speed but the line can only move as fast as the slowest part. If they are having supplier issues and they have to find another supplier or self produce a part they didn't plan on that would cause more of a delay than fixing the line.
 

SoFlaModel3

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#26
Could be production line speed but the line can only move as fast as the slowest part. If they are having supplier issues and they have to find another supplier or self produce a part they didn't plan on that would cause more of a delay than fixing the line.
This is what Elon eluded to. All signs point to a part (or parts) issue and not the actual line.
 

KarenRei

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#27
Could be production line speed but the line can only move as fast as the slowest part. If they are having supplier issues and they have to find another supplier or self produce a part they didn't plan on that would cause more of a delay than fixing the line.
Meh. They should just ship the car without... oh, let's just say that the holdup is the turn signals - and tell people that they have to drive with flags on the car and doing hand signals out the window ;)
 

JWardell

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#28
The best clue are the problems that current users have had to get serviced. Let's say they were already hand selecting 50% of the parts, then many of those failed a few weeks after delivery. So they can't chance using any of the part and facing public backlash or worse yet safety issues. No supplier works the way Tesla does, so fixing takes weeks or months of investigation, modification, verification, and production to finally get new parts out the door.
 

3V Pilot

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#29
Meh. They should just ship the car without... oh, let's just say that the holdup is the turn signals - and tell people that they have to drive with flags on the car and doing hand signals out the window ;)
LOL, and lets just say the holdup is the main wiring harness (read that somewhere)......and tell people you can push it or you can pull it but for now you aren't going to drive it!!
 

model Z

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#30
200-300 so far. Still have about a week left to go. I’m expecting 300-400 for this month.
If Tesla continues this slow production pace, these things will happen: super bad for investors as the stock is already sliding; other competitors will play catch up; more pre-ordered customers will get angry and cancel their order;
 

3Victoria

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#31
If Tesla continues this slow production pace, these things will happen: super bad for investors as the stock is already sliding; other competitors will play catch up; more pre-ordered customers will get angry and cancel their order;
EM had warned that the start of production and S curve is unpredictable -- so this in not unexpected. Some hints of improvement, not to worry.
 

SoFlaModel3

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#32
If Tesla continues this slow production pace, these things will happen: super bad for investors as the stock is already sliding; other competitors will play catch up; more pre-ordered customers will get angry and cancel their order;
A short term stock slide and a few order cancelations will be irrelevant once the production ramp is in full gear.

Of course I’m optimistic, but the play is long and in a few short months the early delays will be long forgotten!
 

danzgator

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#33
If Tesla continues this slow production pace, these things will happen: super bad for investors as the stock is already sliding; other competitors will play catch up; more pre-ordered customers will get angry and cancel their order;
If they ramp up production without fixing the issues, they have unhappy customers, recalls, poor reliability ratings, more bad press, etc. Not a good situation either way, but the former is a temporary issue, the latter is a much bigger hurdle to overcome.
 
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#34
I’m assuming they are ramping up (who knows the exact amount). But I got an email from tesla last night, letting me know that the Tesla referral credit is changing at the end of this month. And of course, promoting the S and X.

I’m guessing they are targeting people with “close” dates.
 

Sandy

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#35
If Tesla continues this slow production pace, these things will happen: super bad for investors as the stock is already sliding; other competitors will play catch up; more pre-ordered customers will get angry and cancel their order;
OMG, Doom and gloom for Tesla. First time ever. That’s it! I’m cancelling my reservation and immediately putting my entire life savings into shorting the stock.
 

KarenRei

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#36
Agreed about the short term not being what matters. They can always increase the total number of lines they ultimately build if they need to "catch up" with demand. The only risk would be losing customers - but to whom? Halo/compliance EVs from other manufacturers that only exist on paper? Bolts? Leafs? Not seeing any real threats out there to "jump ship" to over the course of the next year.
 
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Rich M

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#37
The only risk would be losing customers - but to whom? Halo/compliance EVs from other manufacturers that only exist on paper? Bolts? Leafs? Not seeing any real threats out there to "jump ship" to over the course of the next year.
This! There is no other premium long range EV available now. The Bolt is the closest car available, and it is down on features and performance, as well as no nationwide charging network..

However, there's no point in opening a second (really expensive) assembly line for more model 3's, because demand will drop severely once the initial backlog ends, and the tax credit fades. Competition is coming, and the competition will now have a $7500 credit while Tesla has none. At that point the Model 3 will need to look $7500 better than the competition.
 

JWardell

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#38
I clicked a lot of Agrees in the last two pages on both sides of the arguments. The delays will hurt reservations and stocks, but are not significant when looking back 10 years or in the overall impact on climate etc. But..

demand will drop severely once the initial backlog ends, and the tax credit fades. Competition is coming, and the competition will now have a $7500 credit while Tesla has none. At that point the Model 3 will need to look $7500 better than the competition.
I disagree here, demand is going to keep going up once the backlog ends. The more the cars are seen and compared to the competition, the more people will be interested in them. The more regular people see through the fog and realize the many benefits of an EV, the more demand there will be. There will be more EVs to choose from, but they will all be far inferior to Tesla's offerings in many details, not to mention the significant benefit of a long distance charging network. My parents are already repeatedly saying they want one, have no interest in the other brands, yet think I'm crazy for reserving a car. It's like the many people insist on only getting "free" cell phones, so many people will only consider buying a car if they can walk onto a lot and drive it away. Tesla will get there.
 

Rich M

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#39
I disagree here, demand is going to keep going up once the backlog ends. The more the cars are seen and compared to the competition, the more people will be interested in them. The more regular people see through the fog and realize the many benefits of an EV, the more demand there will be. There will be more EVs to choose from, but they will all be far inferior to Tesla's offerings in many details, not to mention the significant benefit of a long distance charging network. My parents are already repeatedly saying they want one, have no interest in the other brands, yet think I'm crazy for reserving a car. It's like the many people insist on only getting "free" cell phones, so many people will only consider buying a car if they can walk onto a lot and drive it away. Tesla will get there.
I hope that's where it leads, because I think Tesla ultimately deserves the business for fostering this progress. But it is my personal observation that outside of the superfans on forums and social media, normal people fall into 3 categories:
  • Unaware of Tesla
  • Know when they see a Tesla as a curiosity but know nothing about them
  • Aware of Tesla but won't buy one until they are firmly in the mainstream and away from "unstable startup" status.
The real competition is European makes coming hot and heavy on EVs, especially VAG fresh off their diesel debacle. All of Japan seems to be drifting lazily in a sea of bad EV concepts and pushing hydrogen. GM has given us the Bolt, Ford is lost in compliance land, and FCA is full-on anti-EV.
 

Mike

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#40
I have to agree with Rich M about demand for the Model 3 dropping after the $7,500 credit is reduced/expires. By the end of 2018 there are going to be at least 2 more cars with 200+ range, the NIssan Leaf and the Hyundai Ioniq ev. VW and others might also have one out by then. They will all be priced $30k and up but with a full $7,500 credit. The Model 3 will be the "sexiest" but to a lot of folks price matters more.
If the Bolt or the Leaf had the supercharger network, I would have bought one of those products by now. That is the Tesla "ace in the hole" so to speak.