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Model 3 production delays...

25K views 170 replies 65 participants last post by  Idur 
#1 · (Edited)
If this article is true then it's our worst nightmare.

http://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-production-issue-tied-suppliers-oppenheimer/

Delays are tied to supplier misses and the production line is fine.

They project 100,000 cars in 2018 rather than what we would all hope for (somewhere between 250,000 and 500,000).

I have my fingers crossed this is not accurate, but if it is the our estimated ranges on first production will be way off :(

EDIT -- reading comprehension failure on my part. It's just over 100,000 cars produced in 2017, not 100,000 Model 3's in 2018. Sorry!!!
 
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#2 · (Edited)
As I recall, when suppliers can't or won't perform at the required standards, Tesla brings those processes in-house.

On a more suspicious note, I wonder why they aren't meeting the production goals? It isn't like they didn't see the huge demand that was there and I'm sure Telsa contracts make note of performance expectations. So, unless they have bigger customers who have greater demands, ............... When Tesla bought the German Company that made "the machine that builds the machine," the story I read was Tesla told them to get rid of the orders that got in the way of Tesla needs.
 
#3 ·
As I recall, when suppliers can't or won't perform at the required standards, Tesla brings those processes in-house.

On a more suspicious note, wonde why they aren't meeting the production goals? It isn't like they didn't see the huge demand that was there and I'm sure Telsa contracts make note of performance expectations. So, unless they have bigger customers who have greater demands, ............... When Tesla bought the German Company that made "the machine that builds the machine," the story I read was Tesla told them to get rid of the orders that got in the way of Tesla needs.
Right... it's vague. Could be bad info... could be good info and the issues are quality control... could be that Tesla doesn't have the capacity to bring it in house.

I truly hope it's wrong, or if it's right at least their projections are wrong.
 
#4 ·
I've said this before. Subcontractors manufacture components according to provided designs and specs from Tesla. There may have been an unforeseen design deficiency from Tesla or a defect in the subcontractor's process like the leaky headlamp/taillamp housings, the seats, and the other half dozen fixes known so far. Any change in a subcontracted part can possibly take weeks for the subcontractor to retool and then they may have their own ramp curve.
 
#7 ·
If this article is true then it's our worst nightmare.

http://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-production-issue-tied-suppliers-oppenheimer/

Delays are tied to supplier misses and the production line is fine.

They project 100,000 cars in 2018 rather than what we would all hope for (somewhere between 250,000 and 500,000).

I have my fingers crossed this is not accurate, but if it is the our estimated ranges on first production will be way off :(
Hogwash. Let's see what Apple has to say at the Q3 financial call (in the next 2 weeks) and surely one of the attendees will ask for clarification on the matter
 
#8 ·
If this article is true then it's our worst nightmare.

http://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-production-issue-tied-suppliers-oppenheimer/

Delays are tied to supplier misses and the production line is fine.

They project 100,000 cars in 2018 rather than what we would all hope for (somewhere between 250,000 and 500,000).

I have my fingers crossed this is not accurate, but if it is the our estimated ranges on first production will be way off :(
I could just be missing it, but I don't see where it says 100,000 cars for 2018.

I see 100,056 total vehicles in 2017 (which I'm guessing includes S and X?) Am I just missing where they say the projected number for 2018...or maybe it was there and they edited it? I don't know. I'm not ruling it out that it's still there, and that I'm blind and just missing the obvious. LOL :D
 
#12 ·
You're not blind, but clearly I am :)

The article actually reads 100,056 cars total in 2017 not 2018. Waiting for the coming guidance.
Yup -- feeling a bit better now!
 
#9 ·
If this article is true then it's our worst nightmare.

http://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-production-issue-tied-suppliers-oppenheimer/

Delays are tied to supplier misses and the production line is fine.

They project 100,000 cars in 2018 rather than what we would all hope for (somewhere between 250,000 and 500,000).

I have my fingers crossed this is not accurate, but if it is the our estimated ranges on first production will be way off :(
The article actually reads 100,056 cars total in 2017 not 2018. Waiting for the coming guidance.
 
#13 ·
The Delivery Estimates are still unchanged. Hoping this delay isn't too significant like maybe only 2 or 3 days behind.
 
#89 ·
I talked with a Tesla rep a few days ago and he said our estimate of our delivery of Jan - Mar of 2018 was still good, But then again it won't be the first time that a rep wasn't provided with any updated info from the higher ups.
 
#14 ·
I don't read it as that bad, just a bit delayed.

Clearly 3,005 deliveries is well below earlier estimates, and certainly means that non-employee, non-owners won't see their cars this year. However, if they actually achieve a build rate of 5,000 per week in December, a whole bunch of us (but certainly not all 1st dayers) will be able to get cars in January. That run rate, even with no further ramping, means a minimum of 250,000 Model 3s delivered in 2018.
 
#15 ·
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#17 ·
He doesn't even make sense

"Until last month, no Model 3 with VIN over #400 were spotted, but over the last few weeks, several have been seen in the wild and even in a few in the #500s."

454 and 521 were both delivered within the last week of September, and nothing higher than 521 has been spotted since then, in 2.5 weeks.

This article has no new information at all.
 
#16 ·
I'm still going to sit back...let what's going to happen, happen...let Tesla figure it all out...and then see where they stand after the first quarter of 2018. Until then, I am just not going to worry about anything I read...positive or negative. We have waited 18 months. Tesla has had this vehicle in the works for a lot longer than that. I think giving them six months from first delivery is the least we can do to give them a chance to work through all the issues.

Dan
 
#22 ·
Electrek is a business and sometimes there is almost no news. Last few weeks have been pretty slow since the mid 500s VIN deliveries. So they take whispers and make them sound like roars. There was almost a 0% chance they'd get the ramp off the ground without some issues and setbacks. Setbacks mean less cars delivered today but you can bet they're working to make the ramp even faster once the constraints are lifted. Elon seemed confident they'd hit their stride come December so I'm sticking with that.
 
#28 ·
The best clue are the problems that current users have had to get serviced. Let's say they were already hand selecting 50% of the parts, then many of those failed a few weeks after delivery. So they can't chance using any of the part and facing public backlash or worse yet safety issues. No supplier works the way Tesla does, so fixing takes weeks or months of investigation, modification, verification, and production to finally get new parts out the door.
 
#34 ·
I’m assuming they are ramping up (who knows the exact amount). But I got an email from tesla last night, letting me know that the Tesla referral credit is changing at the end of this month. And of course, promoting the S and X.

I’m guessing they are targeting people with “close” dates.
 
#36 · (Edited)
Agreed about the short term not being what matters. They can always increase the total number of lines they ultimately build if they need to "catch up" with demand. The only risk would be losing customers - but to whom? Halo/compliance EVs from other manufacturers that only exist on paper? Bolts? Leafs? Not seeing any real threats out there to "jump ship" to over the course of the next year.
 
#37 ·
The only risk would be losing customers - but to whom? Halo/compliance EVs from other manufacturers that only exist on paper? Bolts? Leafs? Not seeing any real threats out there to "jump ship" to over the course of the next year.
This! There is no other premium long range EV available now. The Bolt is the closest car available, and it is down on features and performance, as well as no nationwide charging network..

However, there's no point in opening a second (really expensive) assembly line for more model 3's, because demand will drop severely once the initial backlog ends, and the tax credit fades. Competition is coming, and the competition will now have a $7500 credit while Tesla has none. At that point the Model 3 will need to look $7500 better than the competition.
 
#40 ·
I have to agree with Rich M about demand for the Model 3 dropping after the $7,500 credit is reduced/expires. By the end of 2018 there are going to be at least 2 more cars with 200+ range, the NIssan Leaf and the Hyundai Ioniq ev. VW and others might also have one out by then. They will all be priced $30k and up but with a full $7,500 credit. The Model 3 will be the "sexiest" but to a lot of folks price matters more.
If the Bolt or the Leaf had the supercharger network, I would have bought one of those products by now. That is the Tesla "ace in the hole" so to speak.
 
#41 ·
By the end of 2018 there are going to be at least 2 more cars with 200+ range, the NIssan Leaf and the Hyundai Ioniq ev. VW and others might also have one out by then. They will all be priced $30k and up but with a full $7,500 credit.
  • The Model 3 competes in the "entry level luxury" class. The Bolt, Leaf, and Ioniq do not.
  • You can't road-trip those cars.
  • The Model 3 can be had with 300+ miles of range. Those cars cannot.
 
#51 ·
  • The Model 3 competes in the "entry level luxury" class...
It does and it doesn't. While the 3 is competitive in that class, it doesn't sound like people are trading in their BMW/Audi/Lexus. It seems to be mostly people who wouldn't have otherwise considered a luxury brand who reserved.
 
#43 ·
I have to agree with Rich M about demand for the Model 3 dropping after the $7,500 credit is reduced/expires. By the end of 2018 there are going to be at least 2 more cars with 200+ range, the NIssan Leaf and the Hyundai Ioniq ev. VW and others might also have one out by then. They will all be priced $30k and up but with a full $7,500 credit. The Model 3 will be the "sexiest" but to a lot of folks price matters more.
Nissan is only a couple quarters behind Tesla with US sales. GM is on the same pace. Ford, BMW and Toyota are something like 6 quarters behind. This is why we'll see Tesla hammer US sales while the credit is still available over the next year, and then switch to fulfilling foreign orders to keep production up while the car market digests the higher total price and other manufacturers start to make big dents in their 200k limit. Keep in mind that 17.5m new cars and trucks were sold in the US last year and most of the majors are over halfway through their credit total. That said, if the EV credit survives tax reform, there are going to be some amazing opportunities on the first Accord EV, etc. at some point.
 
#47 ·
I have to agree with Rich M about demand for the Model 3 dropping after the $7,500 credit is reduced/expires. By the end of 2018 there are going to be at least 2 more cars with 200+ range, the NIssan Leaf and the Hyundai Ioniq ev. VW and others might also have one out by then. They will all be priced $30k and up but with a full $7,500 credit. The Model 3 will be the "sexiest" but to a lot of folks price matters more.
Those cars are not competition for the model three. They would have to be BMW three series, Audi A4, Mercedes C class competitors. They are not even close.
 
#48 ·
We will see. BMW confirmed a BEV 3 series and Audi is rumoured to be putting major effort into their EV program. I think the preorders for the 3 were a major wakeup call for the German manufacturers in particular and I expect all of them to have some pretty good BEV cars in the near future. Whether or not they can compete with Tesla, or how long it takes them to fire it up is anyones guess...although they already have nice cars in the 3 series and the A4, so a lot of the R&D, tooling, etc...is already done. Just shoehorning an EV system into an existing platform.
 
#49 · (Edited)
"BobLoblaw, said... Just shoehorning an EV system into an existing platform."

... and there you have it, a kludge like the Ford Focus Electric or VW EGolf. Not designed to be EV just 'converted'. Not many people will want their cars without trunks capable of holding more then a few groceries.

This from a driver of a FFE for the last 3 years..
 
#59 ·
It's ironic, Tesla claims the model 3 is the car for the mass market, but folks here say only a BMW or Audi are comparable alternatives. Which is it? Personally, I'm in the category of someone who needs the federal and state credits to be able to afford the model 3. So it's the regular battery, rear wheel drive, 18 inch wheels and maybe - maybe just the premium upgrade and a paint other than black. It would be nice if folks here would remember that not everyone is in their situation.
 
#60 ·
It's ironic, Tesla claims the model 3 is the car for the mass market, but folks here say only a BMW or Audi are comparable alternatives. Which is it?
BMW and Audi are mass market. The average new car in the US sells for $34k.

If you're wanting Tesla to sell in the "low end Toyota / Hyundai / etc" range, then you'll have to wait on that. But the Model 3 price range is mass market. More than average when you account for options, but not vastly so.
 
#62 ·
mass-market or mass market
[mas-mahr-kit]
adjective
1.
(of products) produced and distributed in large quantities and intended to appeal to the widest range of consumers.
verb (used with object)
2.
to produce and distribute to the widest range of consumers.
If Audi and BMW are "mass market" in your world, you live in a different world than I.
 
#64 ·
If Audi and BMW are "mass market" in your world, you live in a different world than I.
The median price for vehicles purchased is around 35K. So by that definition alone it's a "mass market" car.
 
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