Model 3 production delays...

SoFlaModel3

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#1
If this article is true then it’s our worst nightmare.

http://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-production-issue-tied-suppliers-oppenheimer/

Delays are tied to supplier misses and the production line is fine.

They project 100,000 cars in 2018 rather than what we would all hope for (somewhere between 250,000 and 500,000).

I have my fingers crossed this is not accurate, but if it is the our estimated ranges on first production will be way off :(


EDIT -- reading comprehension failure on my part. It's just over 100,000 cars produced in 2017, not 100,000 Model 3's in 2018. Sorry!!!
 
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Mark C

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#2
As I recall, when suppliers can't or won't perform at the required standards, Tesla brings those processes in-house.

On a more suspicious note, I wonder why they aren't meeting the production goals? It isn't like they didn't see the huge demand that was there and I'm sure Telsa contracts make note of performance expectations. So, unless they have bigger customers who have greater demands, ............... When Tesla bought the German Company that made "the machine that builds the machine," the story I read was Tesla told them to get rid of the orders that got in the way of Tesla needs.
 
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SoFlaModel3

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#3
As I recall, when suppliers can't or won't perform at the required standards, Tesla brings those processes in-house.

On a more suspicious note, wonde why they aren't meeting the production goals? It isn't like they didn't see the huge demand that was there and I'm sure Telsa contracts make note of performance expectations. So, unless they have bigger customers who have greater demands, ............... When Tesla bought the German Company that made "the machine that builds the machine," the story I read was Tesla told them to get rid of the orders that got in the way of Tesla needs.
Right... it’s vague. Could be bad info... could be good info and the issues are quality control... could be that Tesla doesn’t have the capacity to bring it in house.

I truly hope it’s wrong, or if it’s right at least their projections are wrong.
 

Brokedoc

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#4
I've said this before. Subcontractors manufacture components according to provided designs and specs from Tesla. There may have been an unforeseen design deficiency from Tesla or a defect in the subcontractor's process like the leaky headlamp/taillamp housings, the seats, and the other half dozen fixes known so far. Any change in a subcontracted part can possibly take weeks for the subcontractor to retool and then they may have their own ramp curve.
 

Ip Man

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#5
Rumor from the Street it is the electrical cable harness that's the holdup. Without that-not much they can do.
 

TrevP

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#7
If this article is true then it’s our worst nightmare.

http://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-production-issue-tied-suppliers-oppenheimer/

Delays are tied to supplier misses and the production line is fine.

They project 100,000 cars in 2018 rather than what we would all hope for (somewhere between 250,000 and 500,000).

I have my fingers crossed this is not accurate, but if it is the our estimated ranges on first production will be way off :(
Hogwash. Let's see what Apple has to say at the Q3 financial call (in the next 2 weeks) and surely one of the attendees will ask for clarification on the matter
 

Joe Donahue

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#8
If this article is true then it’s our worst nightmare.

http://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-production-issue-tied-suppliers-oppenheimer/

Delays are tied to supplier misses and the production line is fine.

They project 100,000 cars in 2018 rather than what we would all hope for (somewhere between 250,000 and 500,000).

I have my fingers crossed this is not accurate, but if it is the our estimated ranges on first production will be way off :(
I could just be missing it, but I don't see where it says 100,000 cars for 2018.

I see 100,056 total vehicles in 2017 (which I'm guessing includes S and X?) Am I just missing where they say the projected number for 2018...or maybe it was there and they edited it? I don't know. I'm not ruling it out that it's still there, and that I'm blind and just missing the obvious. LOL :D
 

Sandy

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#9
If this article is true then it’s our worst nightmare.

http://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-production-issue-tied-suppliers-oppenheimer/

Delays are tied to supplier misses and the production line is fine.

They project 100,000 cars in 2018 rather than what we would all hope for (somewhere between 250,000 and 500,000).

I have my fingers crossed this is not accurate, but if it is the our estimated ranges on first production will be way off :(
The article actually reads 100,056 cars total in 2017 not 2018. Waiting for the coming guidance.
 

Dogwhistle

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#11
Hogwash. Let's see what Apple has to say at the Q3 financial call (in the next 2 weeks) and surely one of the attendees will ask for clarification on the matter
Yes, this will be a VERY interesting (Tesla) conference call!
 

SoFlaModel3

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#12
I could just be missing it, but I don't see where it says 100,000 cars for 2018.

I see 100,056 total vehicles in 2017 (which I'm guessing includes S and X?) Am I just missing where they say the projected number for 2018...or maybe it was there and they edited it? I don't know. I'm not ruling it out that it's still there, and that I'm blind and just missing the obvious. LOL :D
You're not blind, but clearly I am :)

The article actually reads 100,056 cars total in 2017 not 2018. Waiting for the coming guidance.
Yup -- feeling a bit better now!
 

samson

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#13
The Delivery Estimates are still unchanged. Hoping this delay isn't too significant like maybe only 2 or 3 days behind.
 

Model34mePlease

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#14
I don't read it as that bad, just a bit delayed.

Clearly 3,005 deliveries is well below earlier estimates, and certainly means that non-employee, non-owners won't see their cars this year. However, if they actually achieve a build rate of 5,000 per week in December, a whole bunch of us (but certainly not all 1st dayers) will be able to get cars in January. That run rate, even with no further ramping, means a minimum of 250,000 Model 3s delivered in 2018.
 

Dan Detweiler

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#16
I'm still going to sit back...let what's going to happen, happen...let Tesla figure it all out...and then see where they stand after the first quarter of 2018. Until then, I am just not going to worry about anything I read...positive or negative. We have waited 18 months. Tesla has had this vehicle in the works for a lot longer than that. I think giving them six months from first delivery is the least we can do to give them a chance to work through all the issues.

Dan
 

McHoffa

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#17
I don't know where it's getting its support for the contention that Tesla is still aiming to make regular customer deliveries by the end of the month, but Electrek just posted this and seems to think so: https://electrek.co/2017/10/17/tesla-model-3-deliveries-customer-deadline/
He doesn't even make sense

"Until last month, no Model 3 with VIN over #400 were spotted, but over the last few weeks, several have been seen in the wild and even in a few in the #500s."

454 and 521 were both delivered within the last week of September, and nothing higher than 521 has been spotted since then, in 2.5 weeks.

This article has no new information at all.
 

danzgator

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#18
He doesn't even make sense

"Until last month, no Model 3 with VIN over #400 were spotted, but over the last few weeks, several have been seen in the wild and even in a few in the #500s."

454 and 521 were both delivered within the last week of September, and nothing higher than 521 has been spotted since then, in 2.5 weeks.

This article has no new information at all.
The conclusion itself was something new: that Tesla is aiming to make customer deliveries by the end of the month.

"Tesla is still guiding for its first Model 3 deliveries to regular customers to happen by the end of the month"
"It will be interesting to see if they can fix those bottlenecks within the next few weeks in order to respect the “late October” deadline for regular customer deliveries"


I haven't heard Tesla, Musk, or anyone else say that. Without revealing sources, there's no way to determine whether that conclusion could conceivably be legit, or the author just made it up. If it were any other source, I'd brush it off as made up, but over the past couple years that I've been following Tesla news, I find Electrek and InsideEV's to be some of the most reputable Tesla news sources.
 

McHoffa

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#19
The conclusion itself was something new: that Tesla is aiming to make customer deliveries by the end of the month.

"Tesla is still guiding for its first Model 3 deliveries to regular customers to happen by the end of the month"
"It will be interesting to see if they can fix those bottlenecks within the next few weeks in order to respect the “late October” deadline for regular customer deliveries"


I haven't heard Tesla, Musk, or anyone else say that. Without revealing sources, there's no way to determine whether that conclusion could conceivably be legit, or the author just made it up. If it were any other source, I'd brush it off as made up, but over the past couple years that I've been following Tesla news, I find Electrek and InsideEV's to be some of the most reputable Tesla news sources.
In my opinion Electrek has become Tesla clickbait half the time. This article being an example of that. No actual news, and unconfirmed reports that go against what we know to be true. There is no evidence of more than a couple new Model 3s delivered since September 30. That’s hardly ramping up at all. Since it takes about four weeks from order to delivery we know for a fact that no non employees are getting their car this month. It’s very unlikely a non employee will get to order this month and at the rate things are moving I wouldn’t hold my breath for next month either.

I’m still hoping for a big December ramp up so I can get mine this year but planning on May now (I’ll owe my down payment worth of taxes if I don’t take delivery this year so I’d just delay it to May)
 

danzgator

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#20
In my opinion Electrek has become Tesla clickbait half the time. This article being an example of that. No actual news, and unconfirmed reports that go against what we know to be true. There is no evidence of more than a couple new Model 3s delivered since September 30. That’s hardly ramping up at all. Since it takes about four weeks from order to delivery we know for a fact that no non employees are getting their car this month. It’s very unlikely a non employee will get to order this month and at the rate things are moving I wouldn’t hold my breath for next month either.

I’m still hoping for a big December ramp up so I can get mine this year but planning on May now (I’ll owe my down payment worth of taxes if I don’t take delivery this year so I’d just delay it to May)
That could be a fair critique. I don’t really keep track of it that way in my head, but half the time they get the real scoop for anybody else, so I’m not quick discount unless it’s obvious garbage either. This feels like garbage, but I was hopeful...