Model 3 Production Announced

Model34mePlease

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#4
Wanted to share this, since it looks like it just went live.

http://ir.tesla.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=1042449

It looks like Model 3 production is a little low due to production issues and only 260 were produced with 220 of them getting delivered... I hope it picks up soon!
"a little low" is an understatement. It looks like there was no ramp-up in September although there was some information that they were starting production on the real manufacturing line late last month. As I said in a different thread (but maybe here is the more relevant place):

I note that the release only says that Tesla understands "what needs to be fixed", not that the recalcitrant manufacturing subsystems ARE fixed. Thus current production is still operating at a slower rate of speed consistent with these production numbers. I'm sure they will work this out over time ("in the near-term"), but it doesn't bode well for delivery to non-employees/non-owners this calendar year.
 

Skidmark

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#5
Wonder if this means the VINs aren't sequential? I physically saw a car with VIN 3xx that had been delivered on Sep 29 (employee purchase, not a RC/test car).
 

kmngq

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#7
Can you break down the numbers in this?
Their page is down, but according to inside ev's scorecard, I calculated 109k US delivery Teslas (model S + X) up until the end of 2016.

https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

The current press release says they will delivery about 100,000 cars total. That means they will only break 200,000 this year, if ALL 100,000 gets delivered to US customers.


http://insideevs.com/tesla-deliveries-cross-200000-all-time-25000-sales-in-q1-shows-healthy-growth/

Here is a link that shows out of 208,000 total deliveries, only 120,000 are US deliveries. That equates to a little over half to the US. (57%)
If we use the same ratio, 109k + (100k *0.57) = 166k will be the number by year end 2017. Obviously, Q4 numbers are extrapolated, but I think its safe to say that they wont hit 200k US deliveries by the end of 2017.
 

KarenRei

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#8
No surprises here; we already knew that they first had weld problems (which they had to go back and redo), and then grounding bolt problems (which they had to go in and replace). And that the VIN count hadn't been keeping up.

https://electrek.co/2017/09/29/tesla-model-3-production-ramp-up-manufacturing-problems/

The mention of a few parts being in short supply is news, but not a real shock. I see nothing here or elsewhere that sounds like a systemic problem - at least at this point in time. Just normal production hell.

Unfortunate for those who are expecting their vehicles within the next couple months based on the planned rampup... but if you're further out than that, I don't see you being affected (unless more of the rampup continues to be affected).
 

bluesolarflare

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#9
Their page is down, but according to inside ev's scorecard, I calculated 109k US delivery Teslas (model S + X) up until the end of 2016.

https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

The current press release says they will delivery about 100,000 cars total. That means they will only break 200,000 this year, if ALL 100,000 gets delivered to US customers.


http://insideevs.com/tesla-deliveries-cross-200000-all-time-25000-sales-in-q1-shows-healthy-growth/

Here is a link that shows out of 208,000 total deliveries, only 120,000 are US deliveries. That equates to a little over half to the US. (57%)
If we use the same ratio, 109k + (100k *0.57) = 166k will be the number by year end 2017. Obviously, Q4 numbers are extrapolated, but I think its safe to say that they wont hit 200k US deliveries by the end of 2017.
So it's possible that they might not even hit their 200K US quota until sometime after Q1. Based on the speculative number above, Tesla would need to hit close to 60k cars in Q1 with 57% delivered state side in order to hit that quota in the first quarter which I don't see happening unless the Model 3 ramp up does hit minimum 10k cars a month
 

Model34mePlease

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#10
So it's possible that they might not even hit their 200K US quota until sometime after Q1. Based on the speculative number above, Tesla would need to hit close to 60k cars in Q1 with 57% delivered state side in order to hit that quota in the first quarter which I don't see happening unless the Model 3 ramp up does hit minimum 10k cars a month
Your extrapolation doesn't work. A reasonably high percentage of q1 cars will be model 3s, all going to the US.
 

SoFlaModel3

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#11
It seems very likely to me that car 200k hits in Q1, thereby the Federal Tax Credit now looks like this...
  • $7,500 through 6/30/2018
  • $3,750 7/1/2018 through 12/31/2018
  • $1,875 1/1/2019 through 6/30/2019
Today's "bad news" essentially locks in the best case scenario.
 

kmngq

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#12
Your extrapolation doesn't work. A reasonably high percentage of q1 cars will be model 3s, all going to the US.
Youre right. model 3s will mostly go to US. But do you think they will build a significant amount this year to tip the scale one way or another?

I think its safe to say that Tesla wont hit 200k this year, which is basically what I saying with the post.
 

DC_3

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#14

Archer

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#15
Don't think it's a typo. The article referenced within the article linked above says, "Eventually, Musk said on Friday, Tesla wants to put out 500,000 Model 3s a year, although he predicted about 50,000 Model 3s will hit the streets next year. At the factory on Friday evening, the first 30 vehicles were delivered to Tesla employees. Deliveries will be made slowly over the next year, starting with customers that already own Model S or X vehicles."
 

MelindaV

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#16
and be at 5k/week production by the end of this year... so are they only working 10 weeks next year?

there is no way the expected production of Model 3s for 2018 is only 50k.
 

tivoboy

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#18
Correct me if I'm wrong (happens) but Tesla still doesn't break out DOMESTIC vs. International deliveries, so understanding when the 200,000th DOMESTIC delivery is going to take place isn't anywhere as easy as company reporting, so I'm not sure we can realistically say if/when 200K DC is going to hit in Q4 or Q118.

I think we CAN assume that pretty much ALL Model 3 production are going to go to domestic deliveries well into 2018 (nearly all at least) but production estimates for that are still totally unclear. And, as I've said all along, I do not think they will hit the prior targets for Q417/Q118.
 

wooo13

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#19
100% agreed. Something doesn't add up.
Just read a Washington Post article that quoted Elon as saying they expect to produce 50k a month towards the end of next year.

Musk said Model 3 production would climb to 50,000 a month by the end of next year. It’s a steep increase in production — making 500,000 vehicles in a year, as Tesla has vowed to do, would mean increasing its 2016 production almost sixfold, Reuters noted at the time.
 

Model34mePlease

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#20
Has that article (https://arstechnica.com/cars/2017/0...iving-one-of-the-first-model-3s-off-the-line/) been sitting there with those numbers since last July 28th? The Oct. 2nd article relies on this line from the July article:

"Eventually, Musk said on Friday, Tesla wants to put out 500,000 Model 3s a year, although he predicted about 50,000 Model 3s will hit the streets next year."

I think there was confusion between 50,000 a year and 50,000 a month at the end of 2018. Other interpretations are entirely inconsistent with everything else Elon and Tesla have been saying, including all the delivery estimates on folks MyTesla page.