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I hesitate to say this because I couldn't put my cursor on a link to back it up. I recall Elon Musk tweeting that the loss of the head of Grohmann Engineering would not affect the launch of the Model 3, as they already had the equipment in place to build the 3.

To move forward to my speculation now: It is possible that it could have some small impact on future projects. But if one gives the employees who are still there any credit for knowing how to think independently and that they are good at what they do, it will be a minor hiccup, if any issue at all.
 
came across this post on TMC of someone who reached out to Tesla re transferring a reservations... that wasn't specifically the interesting part, but this was...
The rep also seemed to think I would get an invitation to configure mid summer and have a solid chance of arriving before end of 2017 (April 14 reservation, East Coast, Non-tesla owner)
hope everyone is ready!!! if a non-owner who reserved 2 weeks after the reveal on the east coast has their car by the end of the year, I would guess most of us in NA will as well!! (assuming the person that they spoke to knew what they were talking about)
 
came across this post on TMC of someone who reached out to Tesla re transferring a reservations... that wasn't specifically the interesting part, but this was...

hope everyone is ready!!! if a non-owner who reserved 2 weeks after the reveal on the east coast has their car by the end of the year, I would guess most of us in NA will as well!! (assuming the person that they spoke to knew what they were talking about)
Not sure I believe it but it sure would be sweet!
 
Not sure I believe it but it sure would be sweet!
exactly! Being on the west coast, with a reservation early morning 4/1/16, I have been expecting delivery march 2018 since then... End of 2017 would be great, except for 3+ months less of savings time
 
I'm taking the rep's comments with an entire shaker of salt, but given that "mid-summer" could technically be anytime in July or August, it's probably not too far off. At the end of the day, there are a lot of unknowns surrounding the ordering timeline/process itself (to say nothing of the unknowns related to production ramp-up), so I'm wary of putting too much faith in any predictions (insider or not) at this point.

My parents and I have something of a race going on between us to see who (a) gets to configure first, and (b) takes delivery first (given that we will probably order similar configurations). Here's the tale of the tape:

Me: East coast, non-owner, reserved 3/31/2016 (line-waiter)
Them: West coast, early Model S owner, reserved online a week after the reveal

Personally, I'm vaguely expecting a late-July / early-August timeframe for getting invited to configure, and taking delivery sometime in March 2018, but I am fully expecting reality to differ one way or another.
 
So...a question about configuration.

Would it not be wise to open up configuration to everyone at once with the understanding that delivery would progress from West to East by reservation date? This way Tesla could have a much better idea of what people were wanting...and willing to pay for. (I have a feeling there are going to be a lot of folks that are willing to wait for dual motor performance options.)

Just a thought.

Dan
 
So...a question about configuration.

Would it not be wise to open up configuration to everyone at once with the understanding that delivery would progress from West to East by reservation date? This way Tesla could have a much better idea of what people were wanting...and willing to pay for. (I have a feeling there are going to be a lot of folks that are willing to wait for dual motor performance options.)

Just a thought.

Dan
No. Because the longer the lead time between configuration and order placement, the more likely people will keep changing their minds. People never seem to actually know what they want. You can give them every possible opportunity to research prior to making a decision, and they will still get you with a bunch of "Oh! Just one more thing..." changes. Invite to configure. If they submit an order, give them three to seven days to make changes, after that they can make no further changes without canceling the order, thereby losing their initial deposit.
 
My guess is that the configuration page for the Model 3 will function the same way as the Model S ordering today. As you pick your options a section on the right will show a similarly pre-configured car that will be delivered to you sooner, if you choose to go that route. I for one might go for the pre-configured car in order to save time... and for a quicker happy ending. :D;)
 
So...a question about configuration.

Would it not be wise to open up configuration to everyone at once with the understanding that delivery would progress from West to East by reservation date? This way Tesla could have a much better idea of what people were wanting...and willing to pay for. (I have a feeling there are going to be a lot of folks that are willing to wait for dual motor performance options.)

Dan
I'd always figured that they'd go with this approach, since, like you said, it makes sense from a manufacturing-planning perspective to know what parts you need to order and in what quantities so that you don't over/under order.

However, after thinking about what Trev's little birdie told him in this thread, I'm starting to wonder whether, due to the sheer volume of reservations, anticipated production rate, and simplified option configurations, Tesla will use a slightly different approach with ordering and building the Model 3 than they did with the lower-volume S and X. I would summarize this approach as "build-first-match-later", and it would work something like this:

1.) Tesla starts building RWD Model 3s in every color and and options package (of which there will be far fewer than the S/X, as we know).
2.) Reservation-holders begin configuring their Model 3s using Tesla's online configurator, based on geography and reservation date.
3.) Due to the production volume, many orders will exactly (or very closely) match a car that has already been produced, or a car that will be produced in the very-near future. These exact matches will be allocated to the customer immediately.
4.) In the case of an inexact match, the customer will asked whether they want to "order this similar car instead and get it quicker", much like you see with the current S/X configurator. If the customer decides that the readily-available car is acceptable, it becomes theirs.
5.) If the customer declines the similar car, or their selected options are currently unavailable (either due to too much / too little demand, or because some components are not yet available -- e.g., AWD/performance drivetrain, performance upgrades), their order goes into the production backlog, and will be fulfilled as soon as Tesla calculates that manufacturing their particular configuration makes sense from a production standpoint.
6.) As AWD, performance, and more complex configurations start to go to production, Tesla will have a pretty good idea of which configurations / option packages need to be produced in what quantities from the backlog, resulting in an even higher match rate for the most common advanced configurations, and optimizing the manufacturing schedule for rarer configurations.

Again, the only reason this approach is even feasible is because they have 400,000+ reservations, production rates of 5-10k a week, and a limited set of possible configurations. Their approach will almost certainly change once they've worked through that initial order queue. But for the first several months (year?) of production, they may as well be shooting fish in a barrel -- someone, somewhere in the queue will want to buy every car they build.
 
@Bokonon -- Very well said! I agree. There will be trim levels, there will be packages, there will be very few individual options that can or must be chosen a la carte. The base level car will only be available in one or two colors and without any change in cost, and both with the exact same interior options. The top-of-the-line car may only be available in a solitary fully loaded configuration (sans software options), but with up to three interior designs and most colors.

But really? Given Elon Musk's infatuation with BLACK, it could very well be that Black Hole Infinity Darkness will be the only interior option on the pure performance car, and colors might be limited to BLACK, WHITE, SILVER, and RED. You'd be lucky to see more than that.

"'It's the wild colour scheme that freaks me out,' said Zaphod, whose love affair with the ship had lasted almost three minutes into the flight. 'Every time you try and operate these weird black controls that are labeled in black on a black background, a little black light lights up in black to let you know you've done it.'" -- Zaphod Beeblebrox, 'The Restaurant at the End of the Universe' by Douglas Adams
 
@Bokonon -- Very well said! I agree. There will be trim levels, there will be packages, there will be very few individual options that can or must be chosen a la carte. The base level car will only be available in one or two colors and without any change in cost, and both with the exact same interior options. The top-of-the-line car may only be available in a solitary fully loaded configuration (sans software options), but with up to three interior designs and most colors.

But really? Given Elon Musk's infatuation with BLACK, it could very well be that Black Hole Infinity Darkness will be the only interior option on the pure performance car, and colors might be limited to BLACK, WHITE, SILVER, and RED. You'd be lucky to see more than that.

"'It's the wild colour scheme that freaks me out,' said Zaphod, whose love affair with the ship had lasted almost three minutes into the flight. 'Every time you try and operate these weird black controls that are labeled in black on a black background, a little black light lights up in black to let you know you've done it.'" -- Zaphod Beeblebrox, 'The Restaurant at the End of the Universe' by Douglas Adams
I plan to have my lower lip stuck out in a pout if reservation blue is not available. Just warning in advance.......
 
My guess is that the configuration page for the Model 3 will function the same way as the Model S ordering today. As you pick your options a section on the right will show a similarly pre-configured car that will be delivered to you sooner, if you choose to go that route. I for one might go for the pre-configured car in order to save time... and for a quicker happy ending. :D;)
I don't see it this way. The Model S is mature and doesn't have a 400k backlog.

I think there will be options that delay the car (dual motor as an example), but otherwise it's not as if 200k cars will be sitting around waiting for owners...
 
I don't see it this way. The Model S is mature and doesn't have a 400k backlog.

I think there will be options that delay the car (dual motor as an example), but otherwise it's not as if 200k cars will be sitting around waiting for owners...
Tesla will design the available options packages and trim levels in such a way that configurations will end up being rather predictable in terms of their individual uptake level. No, they won't have 200,000 cars 'sitting around'. But there may be, for a short time, as many as two weeks of cars with an expected popular configuration ready to go, with promised Delivery within perhaps two weeks instead of three months. They won't last long enough to gather dust before being replaced with newly manufactured units. And they will be especially popular with fleet sales companies and leasing agencies.

If Tesla can put together a basic configuration of Model ☰ that is designed to receive off-the-shelf components from vendors of accessories for police cars, fire department support vehicles, and taxi cabs they will happily take the basic black or basic white cars to apply their decals and/or wraps to. Lighting, push bars, winches, passenger separation walls, antenna placement -- all of these would open up another avenue for sales. The more ICE vehicles that can be eliminated from the road the better. The performance plus lower levels of maintenance and much lower fuel costs will make the Model ☰ a real winner if Tesla wants it to be in that arena of public service.
 
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Tesla will design the available options packages and trim levels in such a way that configurations will end up being rather predictable in terms of their individual uptake level. No, they won't have 200,000 cars 'sitting around'. But there may be, for a short time, as many as two weeks of cars with an expected popular configuration ready to go, with promised Delivery within perhaps two weeks instead of three months. They won't last long enough to gather dust before being replaced with newly manufactured units. And they will be especially popular with fleet sales companies and leasing agencies.

If Tesla can put together a basic configuration of Model ☰ that is designed to receive off-the-shelf components from vendors of accessories for police cars, fire department support vehicles, and taxi cabs they will happily take the basic black or basic white cars to apply their decals and/or wraps to. Lighting, push bars, winches, passenger separation walls, antenna placement -- all of these would open up another avenue for sales. The more ICE vehicles that can be eliminated from the road the better. The performance plus lower levels of maintenance and much lower fuel costs will make the Model ☰ a real winner if Tesla wants it to be in that arena of public service.
I think it would be a PR nightmare if Tesla bypassed the wait list in favour of commercial or public service entities.
 
Tesla will design the available options packages and trim levels in such a way that configurations will end up being rather predictable in terms of their individual uptake level. No, they won't have 200,000 cars 'sitting around'. But there may be, for a short time, as many as two weeks of cars with an expected popular configuration ready to go, with promised Delivery within perhaps two weeks instead of three months. They won't last long enough to gather dust before being replaced with newly manufactured units. And they will be especially popular with fleet sales companies and leasing agencies.
I don't disagree, trim levels seem logical. What doesn't make sense to me is guessing or predicting when you don't have to. You have 400,000 people anxiously awaiting the car. You could swing and miss with guesses at trim level. Imagine a swing and miss that leads to the average sales price dropping from $42,000 to $40,000. $2,000 x 400,000 orders is $800,000,000.

I know we're all speculating. This is actually one of the things I am most curious to see in July. We've already seen the car. The only surprises left are the UI/UX of the touchscreen and how we actually get the car.

All I know is whatever it is, I can't wait!
 
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(...) You have 400,000 people anxiously awaiting the car. You could swing and miss with guesses at trim level. Imagine a swing and miss that leads to the average sales price dropping from $42,000 to $40,000. $2,000 x 400,000 orders is $800,000,000.
(...)
And remember, these numbers could actually be >20% higher!
All I know is whatever it is, I can't wait!
You and all of us here! :)
 
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