Model 3 invites spreadsheet by chojn1 - original thread

Dogwhistle

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#61
Update from the spreadsheet/website:

Another "slow" week from Tesla this week and I am about to head out to meet up with my family, so today I just have just two graphs for you. The first comes from the colorful mind of @Waiting4M3:

View attachment 8686

See the nice little silver dot standing by its lonesome at 1500 & 5/12? That is my baby.
Some say I should be worried about quality issues because it is an out of sequence VIN.
But, I don't run with the pack. The out of sequence VIN, I like to think, is a quality control/improvement sample. It is probably one of the most scrutinized and tweaked car of the entire line.:)

The second chart is the weekly VIN report:

View attachment 8687

This chart tells me that Tesla is making a lot more cars after than before the shut down. Be careful interpreting last two weeks number since the dataset was split on 5/2. It's like interpreting a stock price after a split.

Happy Mother's day everybody.

CJ




View attachment 8688

Mom and dad. Not bad for 85.
Probably someone’s loan fell through at the last minute, so they had a car to reassign.
 
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#63
Hey Chojn1, not that it will ultimately make the wait any easier, but I've tried filling out and editing your chart several times and I never show up. I was a 3/31/16 online config around 9pm PST, invited to config and did so around 5pm 4/18/18 (Red, 18in, no EAP) and am still waiting for VIN. Where should I be showing up on your chart? In Las Vegas, if that helps
 

chojn1

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#64
Hey Chojn1, not that it will ultimately make the wait any easier, but I've tried filling out and editing your chart several times and I never show up. I was a 3/31/16 online config around 9pm PST, invited to config and did so around 5pm 4/18/18 (Red, 18in, no EAP) and am still waiting for VIN. Where should I be showing up on your chart? In Las Vegas, if that helps

Hi @N7-SR3 1810 ,

I searched the entire database and could not find your entry. Other people have been editing their data all day - the last one a few minutes ago. Try this link:

https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSfFsgm2DeumKeFtZ_RiHMILzXeLxeJF97FgqihvTlhTvzThTQ/viewform

Thanks for sharing,
CJ
 
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#65
Hi @N7-SR3 1810 ,

I searched the entire database and could not find your entry. Other people have been editing their data all day - the last one a few minutes ago. Try this link:

https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSfFsgm2DeumKeFtZ_RiHMILzXeLxeJF97FgqihvTlhTvzThTQ/viewform

Thanks for sharing,
CJ
Yeah, clicking that link gives me the "You've already responded" link. BTW, my username is different on there when I added my entry; I've just changed it to the same as here. Thanks
 

chojn1

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#66

MelindaV

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#67

NOGA$4ME

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#68
Hey this seems like a fairly simple request on the surface (with the devil in the details :smilingimp:)

How would you feel about a simple "Cars in Transit" summary number which would basically be the total of all the various "VIN Assigned but not Delivered" numbers in the Waiting for Delivery queues?

Not only that, but it would be cool to plot this on a day to day basis so we could see the trend of how many cars are "in transit". This would allow us to maybe tease out whether Tesla is stockpiling cars somewhere (line trending upwards) or if the flow of vehicles being produced equals the cars being delivered (line relatively flat).

This assumes that VINs are assigned roughly when a car exits production, so I guess you could also create a similar analysis for "Cars in Production" which are basically the totals of the "Waiting for VIN" queues (although admittedly the numbers there are less accurate/meaingful).

Obviously neither of these would represent cars actually in transit/production since this is only a sample. But I think the trend would be interesting to watch.
 

chojn1

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#69
I would guess that's along the Columbia River Gorge, or on the Olympic Peninsula. too bad you didn't ask me to ID the bridge pix you had up a couple days ago ;) (hint, it's the bane of my commute)

I thought you would like that bridge. The water front does look romantic at night.

The road in the current picture is actually Chuckanut Drive along Puget Sound south of Bellingham. Best driven north to south with the ocean on your right and in the morning when the traffic is light.
 

chojn1

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#70
Hey this seems like a fairly simple request on the surface (with the devil in the details :smilingimp:)

How would you feel about a simple "Cars in Transit" summary number which would basically be the total of all the various "VIN Assigned but not Delivered" numbers in the Waiting for Delivery queues?

Not only that, but it would be cool to plot this on a day to day basis so we could see the trend of how many cars are "in transit". This would allow us to maybe tease out whether Tesla is stockpiling cars somewhere (line trending upwards) or if the flow of vehicles being produced equals the cars being delivered (line relatively flat).

This assumes that VINs are assigned roughly when a car exits production, so I guess you could also create a similar analysis for "Cars in Production" which are basically the totals of the "Waiting for VIN" queues (although admittedly the numbers there are less accurate/meaingful).

Obviously neither of these would represent cars actually in transit/production since this is only a sample. But I think the trend would be interesting to watch.

I am actually working on a similar idea.

But in the mean time maybe these will keep you occupied until then.

export-jpg.8839


The delivered group below should actually be delivery scheduled.
chart-7-png.8840
 
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#71
I am actually working on a similar idea.

But in the mean time maybe these will keep you occupied until then.
Some scary numbers in that.
1) The large number of configured but yet undelivered vehicles, and 2) all the "activity" in May.
Neither is surprising to anyone remotely tracking what has been going on (or not going on), but it's depressing to see it set out so plainly.
 

MelindaV

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#72
I think what is “going on”, is Elon pushing to send invites out to all with a March 31 date following the twitter exchange in April, maybe allocating more orders than production was ready for.

@chojn1 - is there an easy compare showing April orders placed vs fulfilled after 6 weeks vs the same for March invites? Or some other matrix that may speak to the push to send out all first day reservations being too much to fill within 6 weeks? Was there a big bump in invites following that tweet?
 

NOGA$4ME

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#74
@NOGA$4ME , @MelindaV ,

I hope these are what you wanted:
Geez, I really hate to complain about great work, but no, it wasn't quite what I was after (although definitely useful).

What I was looking for is basically if you sum all the numbers in column 5 ("VIN not assigned" and "VIN assigned but not delivered") each day, to get the total outstanding number of "Waiting for VIN" and "Waiting for Delivery" entries. So if my math is right, that would be 1135 for the "Configuration to VIN".

Put that 1135 down for 5/18.

Then re-calculate tomorrow and note the number for 5/19.

My hope would be to look at how that trends over time. And maybe or maybe not there is some useful data to tease out of that. For example, can we see evidence of them stockpiling vehicles? Cleaning out their distribution pipeline?
 

chojn1

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#75
Geez, I really hate to complain about great work, but no, it wasn't quite what I was after (although definitely useful).

What I was looking for is basically if you sum all the numbers in column 5 ("VIN not assigned" and "VIN assigned but not delivered") each day, to get the total outstanding number of "Waiting for VIN" and "Waiting for Delivery" entries. So if my math is right, that would be 1135 for the "Configuration to VIN".

Put that 1135 down for 5/18.

Then re-calculate tomorrow and note the number for 5/19.

My hope would be to look at how that trends over time. And maybe or maybe not there is some useful data to tease out of that. For example, can we see evidence of them stockpiling vehicles? Cleaning out their distribution pipeline?
How about this?

https://sites.google.com/view/teslamodel3invites/all-entries/running-total
 

MelindaV

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#77
that was what I was thinking too! thanks!

the other thing I would find interesting is a way to see reservations per 1st available delivery window (ie March-May, April-June, May-July, June-August, etc) and how each group looks for not invited, invited, ordered, vin'd, delivered.

are there still march-may people waiting for delivery? are there april-june people waiting to be invited? how many may-july people have been invited.
 

JWardell

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#78
Hi, everybody. It looks like @chojn1 decided to part ways and took ownership of the form I created in January. We will probably end up with two different forms and two different projects. This is going to be interesting.

CJ had another thread here that was locked by @Michael Russo to avoid confusion. I think that should be unlocked now considering that we will have two different projects.
Just to be clear...now that there are two sets of spreadsheets...do we all have to separately submit data to both? Do they both share date up to date XX? Or are you both sharing the same source data into the future?
 

Dogwhistle

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#79
Just to be clear...now that there are two sets of spreadsheets...do we all have to separately submit data to both? Do they both share date up to date XX? Or are you both sharing the same source data into the future?
There are now two separate, competing projects that no longer share data, so each is partially complete. Best you can do is update your info in both and encourage others to do the same. *sigh*
 

chojn1

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#80
There are now two separate, competing projects that no longer share data, so each is partially complete. Best you can do is update your info in both and encourage others to do the same. *sigh*
Think of it as two different views of the same event. If the views correlate/corroberate, then the views are more likely correct. If they diverge, then one or both are off.