Model 3 Delivery Estimator

NOGA$4ME

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#41
I would point out that the interesting note is the delivery estimator says I should have been invited already. :)
Yeah, mine does too, but I'll just chalk that up to the fact that it's a crapshoot whether or not Tesla will have a batch go out in a given week. Mine says last week too, but since there was no batch last week, it's no big deal. Technically the spreadsheet should just say "next batch" and not try to predict the unpredictable.
 
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#42
Yeah, mine does too, but I'll just chalk that up to the fact that it's a crapshoot whether or not Tesla will have a batch go out in a given week. Mine says last week too, but since there was no batch last week, it's no big deal. Technically the spreadsheet should just say "next batch" and not try to predict the unpredictable.
I figured as much too. I KNOW there are so many others in our same spot. Just patiently (or not ) waiting. :)
 

ummgood

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#43
Yeah, mine does too, but I'll just chalk that up to the fact that it's a crapshoot whether or not Tesla will have a batch go out in a given week. Mine says last week too, but since there was no batch last week, it's no big deal. Technically the spreadsheet should just say "next batch" and not try to predict the unpredictable.
Yeah mine says March 10th so 10 days ago. It's ok I am telling myself. It's ok... It's ok... It's ok... I have new car fever I can't help it!
 

vinnie97

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#44
Canada is now in the mix (another winning prediction made by Troy no less), so I'm expecting another delivery window delay. June-August anyone?
 
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Travelwolf

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#46
update- I got my invite last night! woohoo! 3-6 week delivery time so still outside of the estimator but at least light at the end of the tunnel. I know that estimator was a giant pain to put together and took a lot of time, kudos to the creators and thank you for doing it! It was at least ball-park close :)
 

LoboMesa

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#47
Mine too. It predicted March 24th and I was thinking “no way.” Then I got the invite on the 21st — impressive, and thanks! Since I’ve deferred for AWD, I’m hoping the estimator continues to be that accurate.
 
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#49
Troy, have you done an estimate of how soon Tesla will reach the 200,000-car limit for the beginning of the end of the $7,500 tax rebate incentive? My invitation to order my 3 came yesterday. I want to wait for the 4WD option but not badly enough to give up the full rebate. Dare I put off my order? I can't find the US production numbers for Tesla - only the worldwide numbers. Only the US numbers since 1 Jan. 2010 count.

If I put off my order, am I allowed to order a car at any time if I see the rebate ending before my car is delivered? Does having a VIN seal you into a rebate or is it first-come, first served with the application?

Forgive me if you've already answered this question already.

Gary
 

Michael Russo

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#50
Troy, have you done an estimate of how soon Tesla will reach the 200,000-car limit for the beginning of the end of the $7,500 tax rebate incentive? My invitation to order my 3 came yesterday. I want to wait for the 4WD option but not badly enough to give up the full rebate. Dare I put off my order? I can't find the US production numbers for Tesla - only the worldwide numbers. Only the US numbers since 1 Jan. 2010 count.

If I put off my order, am I allowed to order a car at any time if I see the rebate ending before my car is delivered? Does having a VIN seal you into a rebate or is it first-come, first served with the application?

Forgive me if you've already answered this question already.

Gary
Here is @Troy ’s latest input!
https://teslaownersonline.com/threa...ut-op-updated-2-21-18.5437/page-11#post-82480
Hope this helps...
 

ummgood

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#53
Here is another data point for the estimator. Mine estimated me getting an invite on 3/10 but the real date was 3/22. I blame the Texas invite issues and push for end of quarter in Cali for the offset. I think the estimator was pretty darn close.

Now it estimates me receiving the car on 4/15. I am guessing at least 5/15 due to the issues with delivering in Texas.
 
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#55
My estimate was way off. It predicted May 30. Invited & configured 3/22. Assigned VIN# today. Rep called and said I’ll have a firm delivery date within the week.
Congrats! Consider yourself lucky. It’s well established that those in the San Diego area are ahead of the curve.
 

RichEV

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#56
My estimate was way off. It predicted May 30. Invited & configured 3/22. Assigned VIN# today. Rep called and said I’ll have a firm delivery date within the week.
It is weird, given thousands of line-waiters and 3/31 online reservations still without invites. Lucky you, though. Congrats.
 
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#58
Troy, have you done an estimate of how soon Tesla will reach the 200,000-car limit for the beginning of the end of the $7,500 tax rebate incentive? My invitation to order my 3 came yesterday. I want to wait for the 4WD option but not badly enough to give up the full rebate. Dare I put off my order? I can't find the US production numbers for Tesla - only the worldwide numbers. Only the US numbers since 1 Jan. 2010 count.

If I put off my order, am I allowed to order a car at any time if I see the rebate ending before my car is delivered? Does having a VIN seal you into a rebate or is it first-come, first served with the application?

Forgive me if you've already answered this question already.

Gary
If you've used his estimator already, you probably noticed that when you choose a trim level for the car, it changes your configurator invitation and delivery dates, it also shows if the full tax credit is estimated by him to still be available, so it's already there in his estimator. It's hard to predict the 200,000 even more now, with Tesla pushing deliveries to Canada while they ramp up production to get as many federal tax credits as they can in the US for its customers.
 

Sitter_k

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#59
This is all a lot of fun, I check the estimator often but this is all subject to the whims of Tesla their plans, how much they reveal, mislead and missed deadlines and goals.

Being in Ontario Canada where a vast majority of reservations are want AWD and many are holding off waiting for the evip how will dates change in Canada if hardly anyone pulls the trigger in Ontario, Canada's largest economic market and highest EV adoption. Tesla is currently not listed as eligible for the $14k rebate now that the model S and x were removed due to price limits. Losing a model 3 rebate hurts psychologically for buyers.

Right now the LR AWD and LR are showing the same production and delivery dates, I'm skeptical of that to say the least.
 
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Jeremy Rosser

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#60
I had a reservation on 4/2 but I purchased a CPO Model S and they put my reservation toward the car. They suggested and I agreed. After thinking about it I put another reservation in on March 2, 2018. I have called and spoken to Tesla explaining my story and on March 9th they said I would be in the "next batch" not sure what that means. According to the configurator it says I should have been invited on Feb 28th. I am hoping it is any day now. Any thoughts?