Model 3 Delivery Estimator

Samsaggace

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@Troy
Many thanks for your nice estimator!
I think that estimates for continental Europe are difficult to anticipate as we don’t know when shipment will start and which country will be first served. I am not sure that the reservation chronology will be precisely monitored as cars with precise configuration will be there and need to find clients very quickly. That is why Tesla representatives should open the lists and serve customers selecting available configurations.
In any case, I am using your estimator as worst case scenario and will hope for good news in th future !!
 

Samsaggace

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@Troy Thanks for those news !
I am sure that you will update us when Elon will give more accurate figures.
Model 3 will be certainly shipped to Europe by batch and in pieces to be assembled locally in order to avoid huge import taxes. I am not sure that those ones will be tracked in the same production file.
Don’t know also where the VINs are attributed...
 

garsh

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Thanks. I wasn't sure if the AWDs had priority
When I visited my delivery center yesterday, they had one performance, three AWDs, and about two dozen RWDs. So I think RWD is being produced in larger quantities currently.

It looks like Tesla is planning to switch production to primarily AWD soon, based on the recent VIN reports. So if you wait much longer, I think ordering AWD will end up getting you a car sooner.
 

Samsaggace

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It looks like they have decided to quickly clear the AWD orders which will contribute for higher margins in Tesla Q3 results
 

Samsaggace

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I reserved just a few days ago. Will be interesting to see how quickly I get mine. I hope they made a few extra blue with whites! (AWD but not performance)
I thought that the reservation process is no more active for US residents. You can order directly online ?
Some clients report that their orders WITHOUT reservation are close to delivery.
 

Samsaggace

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As M3s were seen yesterday in France probably for certification process and demos in Tesla stores, it seems that the EU market will be open soon. We can anticipate that first deliveries will occur in Jan 2019.
Main questions remains on prices in euros and the selling process to transform quickly reservations in confirmed orders, tacking into account the availability of cars shipped.
I don’t think that there will be a direct connection between confirmed orders and production in factory like in the USA.
They will be obliged to open quickly the EU configurator to customers without reservations as it is the case now for US customers.
 

Troy

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@Tronkus, there is some uncertainty about what Tesla is going to do next. They have 3 options:

1. Add leasing option for LR/LRD and P purchases in North America
2. Start making the SR and SRD for North America
3. Start making the LRD and P versions for Europe

I don't know which option they will pick. The Estimator assumes that Option 2 will start at the end of this year and Option 3 at the end of Jan 2019 but I'm not so sure about this anymore. They could move EU sooner because of profit margins. However, they might start with only LRD and P and delay LR. Adding Option 1 would be also a great idea.

Let's wait a little more until we have an idea. Fine tuning calculations is not going to make a difference. Q3 production estimate is already very close to the actual number.