Model 3 Delivery Estimator

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#21
Troy has done an amazing, amazing, amazing job with his estimator. Kudos for sure.

I’m gonna go out on a limb and say 200k won’t be hit till July. Then we’ll have all of 2018 for the the max tax credit.
 

Troy

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#22
Calculations have been updated to reflect the current production rate. I'm watching the VIN calculations and I will update the Estimator again in 1 or 2 weeks if needed. The chart in the opening message shows the latest production rates. That's an auto-updating chart linked to the Estimator.
  • Previous version: 790/week on 1st March to 2,250/week on 31st March
  • Current version: 790/week on 14th March to 1,900/week on 31st March
As for the 200K discussion, I wrote about it here.
 
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OrangeJulius

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#23
instoreonlinesame-jpg.6259
I'm not sure if this is the correct thread for this, but...

Out of curiosity, in the "Model 3 Delivery Estimator" I entered two sets of data with their only difference being the reservation method: one "in-store" the other "online". The estimator gave me the exact same data output for both.

I thought at this point it had been determined that in-store reservations were getting priority over online reservations. If they're not, why even include "reservation type" as a data point?
 

pjfw8

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#24
View attachment 6259 I'm not sure if this is the correct thread for this, but...

Out of curiosity, in the "Model 3 Delivery Estimator" I entered two sets of data with their only difference being the reservation method: one "in-store" the other "online". The estimator gave me the exact same data output for both.

I thought at this point it had been determined that in-store reservations were getting priority over online reservations. If they're not, why even include "reservation type" as a data point?
Because it matters for 3/31/16 reservations
 

garsh

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#28
I thought at this point it had been determined that in-store reservations were getting priority over online reservations. If they're not, why even include "reservation type" as a data point?
I thought they only got priority in the sense that in-store reservations started that morning, while online reservations weren't allowed until that evening.

But yes, you'll need to ask @Troy if there's a reason why that data is requested. Maybe they used to think that it made a difference, but they now believe that it does not?
 

OrangeJulius

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#32
That's because earliest online res. SHOULD be 22:30 EST for 3/31.
OK. But then there's NO difference between online and in-store (first day, East Coast.)

So that still leaves the estimator making no allowance for in-store vs. online; points raised above.
 

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Troy

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#33
I thought at this point it had been determined that in-store reservations were getting priority over online reservations. If they're not, why even include "reservation type" as a data point?
Yes, in-store reservations have priority but only if it's 31st March 2016. Otherwise, there is no difference. This is related to normalizing the time zone differences for day-1 reservations. Imagine these 4 reservations that happened at the same time:

1st April 2016, 1 pm ET, New York, in-store
1st April 2016, 1 pm ET, New York, online
1st April 2016, 10 am PST, California, in-store
1st April 2016, 10 am PST, California, online

There won't be any difference between these reservations because all 4 happened at the same time. Now, look at these two examples:

31st March 2016, 1 pm ET, New York, in-store
31st March 2016, 10 am PST, California, in-store

These two reservations also happened at the same time but they can't have the same priority. Why not? Because if they do, all the line waiters in New York who reserved before 1 pm would be in front of 10 am California reservations. That's unfair and it's not what Tesla is doing. 10 am California and 10 am New York should be equal but only for day-1. Also, see message #17 here in this thread.
 
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JWardell

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#34
@Troy I need to take the opportunity to thank for all the hard work and these amazing spreadsheets. I've been referring to them constantly and showing many others the incredible amount of data they show. I'm blown away by the pure genius spreadsheet skills that you managed with google sheets.

My only complaint is the new estimator 2.0 puts my delivery on June 10th, and I much prefer last year's estimator which once told me Jan 4!
 

vinnie97

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#37
Well, I reserved on 3-31 in the pacific time zone at ~11:30 a.m. (Las Vegas). I live in neighboring MT zone, but if I simplify the input data by keeping everything in pacific (and assume delivery in Vegas), it's showing I'm a day late on the config invitation (3-14). I guess there's a slim chance my opportunity may come later today, but I'm not holding my breath and will assume I missed the boat this week.
 
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#38
Troy, great work on this document and I'm sure it needs constant tweaking so I thought I'd update you with my situation.

Non-owner, line-waiter, reserved at ~10:45am in Colorado. Estimator calculates 3/7/2018 configuration, but I have not been given the opportunity to do so.
 

Mike

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#39
Troy, great work on this document and I'm sure it needs constant tweaking so I thought I'd update you with my situation.

Non-owner, line-waiter, reserved at ~10:45am in Colorado. Estimator calculates 3/7/2018 configuration, but I have not been given the opportunity to do so.
Kilograham, welcome aboard.

I'll tag @Troy to make sure he sees your request for data input. Cheers.
 
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#40
I thought they only got priority in the sense that in-store reservations started that morning, while online reservations weren't allowed until that evening.

But yes, you'll need to ask @Troy if there's a reason why that data is requested. Maybe they used to think that it made a difference, but they now believe that it does not?
In the Seattle area, I don't believe its proven one way or another. In our local facebook group, those in the FRONT of the line (Seattle and Bellevue) got invites, however at least one person that reserved online that night has shown an invite as well. I was roughly 80min back in line (around the block). No invite yet. I would point out that the interesting note is the delivery estimator says I should have been invited already. :)

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