Model 3 delivery estimates & revisions

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smak

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#43
As bad as I want it even if it gets pushed it's fine by me. I figure I have all this time to keep saving for the down payment. I'm going to hit my goal by the original date (Apr - Jun 2018) and if it gets longer that's just a lower car payment. The only thing I'd be concerned about if you even want to call it that will be the trade in value of my original car (paid off 2013 Ford Fusion Hybrid with 55,000 miles) which I'm estimating to be about 8k (I'm probably low balling that number) by the time trade in time comes along.
My current loan goes for another 2 years, and I'd be taking a bath the day I sell it, and get the Model 3.

Which I'm 100% willing to do :).

But every month the model 3 slips, I save quite a bit of money, so while I'm disappointed I probably won't get it this year, I'll save some nice money.

It's like betting against your favorite team, you win either way.

-smak-
 

Dan Detweiler

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#49
Relax folks, let's see where they are at the end of the first quarter next year. Much more accurate understanding of where they are with the ramp up. Pretty obvious that there won't be any concern about the federal tax credit. Seems like everyone through the end of June will get the full credit. Let the shorters and the nay sayers spread all the doom and gloom they want. We know what's coming down the pike in a little bit. We'll have the last laugh.

How 'bout those Falcons! (well maybe not so much after losing to the Bills. Oh well.)

Dan
 
Last edited:

tfederov

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#50
Relax folks, let's see where they are at the end of the first quarter next year. Much more accurate understanding of where they are with the ramp up. Pretty obvious that there won't be any concern about the federal tax credit. Seems like everyone through the end of June will get the full credit. Let the shorters and the nay sayers spread all the doom and gloom they want. We know what's coming down the pike a little bit. We'll have the last laugh.

How 'bout those Falcons! (well maybe not so much after losing to the Bills. Oh well.)

Dan
I was with ya till that last sentence (Detroit should have won!! :D)
 

McHoffa

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#51
Relax folks, let's see where they are at the end of the first quarter next year. Much more accurate understanding of where they are with the ramp up. Pretty obvious that there won't be any concern about the federal tax credit. Seems like everyone through the end of June will get the full credit.
Every month they are behind schedule on the ramp up is 20,000 or more people that miss the full tax credit. I think it's ok for them to worry.
 

sreams

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#52
Every month they are behind schedule on the ramp up is 20,000 or more people that miss the full tax credit. I think it's ok for them to worry.
Not necessarily. If production is behind enough, they would hit 200K vehicles sold in the US at the beginning of Q2... which would potentially mean even more people would get the full credit if they can ramp up quickly after that point.
 

McHoffa

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#53
Not necessarily. If production is behind enough, they would hit 200K vehicles sold in the US at the beginning of Q2... which would potentially mean even more people would get the full credit if they can ramp up quickly after that point.
That’s only happening if they deliver less than 25k Model 3s between now and April 1 (just counting S/X they’ll be around 175k by April 1). Considering they originally planned 20k Model 3s per month starting in December that’s HIGHLY unlikely.
 

sreams

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#54
That’s only happening if they deliver less than 25k Model 3s between now and April 1 (just counting S/X they’ll be around 175k by April 1). Considering they originally planned 20k Model 3s per month starting in December that’s HIGHLY unlikely.
Are you counting just US-delivered S and X, or all S and X? Obviously we are only talking about domestic deliveries.
 

NoVADrew

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#55
Are you counting just US-delivered S and X, or all S and X? Obviously we are only talking about domestic deliveries.
He is. Electrek reported that Tesla recently passed 140k US deliveries. They'll sell around 25-35k Models S/X in the US by March 31st. It's highly likely they hit 200k US sales in Q1 if Model 3 ramps even decently well.
 

Michael Russo

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#58
So, do you believe me now???
No. You lie. YOU LIE!
Folks, I am going to interpret this exchange as a sign of irony if not of plain jesting. ;)
Hence recommend we leave it at that... Thank you.

On the topic at hand, i.e. when the famous 200k threshold of T≡SLA US deliveries will be reached, we can of course continue to exchange personal premises & projections, however let’s remember that is precisely what they are, individual assumptions. So, by all means, please let’s stay civil about it... :)
 

Dan Detweiler

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#59
Folks, I am going to interpret this exchange as a sign of irony if not of plain jesting. ;)
Hence recommend we leave it at that... Thank you.

On the topic at hand, i.e. when the famous 200k threshold of T≡SLA US deliveries will be reached, we can of course continue to exchange personal premises & projections, however let’s remember that is precisely what they are, individual assumptions. So, by all means, please let’s stay civil about it... :)
What fun is that...geez. ;)

Dan
 

McHoffa

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#60
Are you counting just US-delivered S and X, or all S and X? Obviously we are only talking about domestic deliveries.
Yes... ~15k per quarter in the US. ~145k so far + 15k this quarter and 15k next quarter is 175k not counting the Model 3. That leaves only 25k Model 3s to push it over 200k in the next 6 months, which unless they stay this far behind, is definitely going to happen. The original goal was 20k each month starting in December, but even 5k per month in November-March would just about push them over.