Model ≡ EU deliveries status

Silvermagic3

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#6
This was a very confused article. Associating driving on the left was the EU is absurd. Almost all of the EU drives on the same side of the road as we do. I believe that the only exceptions are the UK (for now), Ireland, and Malta.
And Hong Kong, which is interesting since there are reports of Tesla showing off the Model 3 there.
 

Michael Russo

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#7
So that begs the question... is Red Dragon temporary or permanent? :)
First of all, my intention in sharing was purely altruistic...

As for Red Dragon, I can assure you it’s permanent... Now what will I do with the Model ≡ res?? Who knows... You of all people should know about a two T≡SLA family...! ;)
 

Michael Russo

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#9
This was a very confused article. Associating driving on the left was the EU is absurd. Almost all of the EU drives on the same side of the road as we do. I believe that the only exceptions are the UK (for now), Ireland, and Malta.
Hello Guy, maybe I’m reading it wrong but the article refers to LHD VINs being registered for the first time, i.e. left hand drive, not for driving on the left.
In the few EU countries where the latter is done indeed, cars are generally called RHD, or right hand drive, ‘cause the steering wheel is on the right... ;)
 

SoFlaModel3

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#11
Let's open a poll for
(A) which country in the EU wil be first?
(B) when will the first Model 3 hit the road in EU?

My vote:
(A) Norway
(B) 01.02.19
I think it’s a little later than that. There is going to be a strong push to maximize US deliveries by 12/31/2018 to allow for the most customers to get the $7,500 federal tax creditn. To that end, any car in transit to Europe for a delivery that early in 2018 would impact that.

My gut feeling is that European cars begin volume production in January and I’m not sure how long it takes to transport the cars overseas.
 

Michael Russo

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#12
Let's open a poll for
(A) which country in the EU wil be first?
(B) when will the first Model 3 hit the road in EU?

My vote:
(A) Norway
(B) 01.02.19
Your country vote sounds right yet I think like @SoFlaModel3 that March 1-15 is more likely the earliest delivery date we could expect on our shores... almost three years after the reveal!! ;)
 

GDN

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#13
I think Elon will still maximize the US deliveries even for half the tax credit. They will only back off and focus elsewhere when down to 1/4 the credit.
 

Dogwhistle

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#14
Let's open a poll for
(A) which country in the EU wil be first?
(B) when will the first Model 3 hit the road in EU?

My vote:
(A) Norway
(B) 01.02.19
I think earlier. LR/AWD/P combinations can only support 5k/week for so long, and with almost immediate deliveries occurring, it seems the backlog is mostly cleared out. If Tesla can continue selling the high-margin cars at 5k+ rate overseas for the rest of this year, that’s what they’ll do. Anything to hold off on starting up production of the SR version until after EOY.

A) Norway
B) 11/30/18
 

Model3GER

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#15
I think earlier. LR/AWD/P combinations can only support 5k/week for so long, and with almost immediate deliveries occurring, it seems the backlog is mostly cleared out. If Tesla can continue selling the high-margin cars at 5k+ rate overseas for the rest of this year, that’s what they’ll do. Anything to hold off on starting up production of the SR version until after EOY.

A) Norway
B) 11/30/18
I'm with dogwhistle in generally. IMHO the reservation numbers from world vs USA might be 60/40 and Tesla needs to serve the generally bigger market out there. Additional to dogwhistle's arguments I'd like to share some of my own:
  1. Tesla struggles with delivery in US. At this point they have severe trouble to get Model3 in the hands of customers. They deviated form US to Canada to get some relief. But once productions progresses in numbers, Tesla faces this problem even more.
  2. As a beacon of hope Tesla is required to ramp up delivery in other markets. Competition catches up and Tesla looses its first mover advantage. It is paramount to keep those (potential) customers still graving for Model 3.
  3. Take Germany for instance: From 01.01.19 there is a tax benefit of 50% for company EV (!) cars over ICE. This is a huge incenvtive. Tesla should take advantage of this particular incentive with a car many employees are allowed to order (budget wise)
  4. Germany, 2nd: our government incentives are supposed to end mid-2019. I admit, there is a chance they will be continued, but still. Our gov isn't famous for rational decisions.
I may have missed many other EU countries with specific incenvitves or arguments. But IMHO #1 and #2 are the heaviest anyway.
 

Samsaggace

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#16
I agree with Norway first, followed by Germany.
That should happen in Feb-March 2019.
I also think that Tesla will open the EU configurator before end 2018 for two main reasons:
- make people with early reservations keeping confidence
- create a database of the real demand among model 3 types (RWD, AWD, P) + colors in EU countries.
Doing that, they should open deliveries in other EU countries very quickly after the first ones.
Being a bit optimistic, we could anticipate that the EU needs for LR will be covered before end 2019 if we make the assumption that the reservations should split 40% LR, 40% SR, 20% canceled or postponed.
 

Alighieri256

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#17
I'll be pretty surprised if SR anything is built before EU shipments start. I also don't think there are enough US original reservations for LR of either variety to last through 1/1/19. My guess would be that EU will start shipping late Oct through early Dec.
 

KarenRei

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#19
Let's open a poll for
(A) which country in the EU wil be first?
(B) when will the first Model 3 hit the road in EU?

My vote:
(A) Norway
(B) 01.02.19
My vote for EU deliveries, in alphabetical order (since we appear to mean "Europe" and not "EU"):
(A) Norway
(B) Germany
...
(Ω) Iceland ;)

I'll go with mid-January for the first deliveries in Norway, with rollout spreading rather quickly. Iceland should be reached at some point before Ragnarök. ;)
 

SoFlaModel3

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#20
I'll be pretty surprised if SR anything is built before EU shipments start. I also don't think there are enough US original reservations for LR of either variety to last through 1/1/19. My guess would be that EU will start shipping late Oct through early Dec.
My recent order for dual motor has an Oct-Dec delivery window. If you’re right we’ll get the car toward the early end of that window.