Let’s try to predict our dates...

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SoFlaModel3

@Teslatunity
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#1
Alright, so simple game ...
  1. State for range from Tesla
  2. Predict your invitation to configure date
  3. Predict your delivery date
  4. For good measure state your configuration (i.e. first production, or other variants such as standard battery, dual motor, performance, long range battery without premium)
International orders and those that will wait for non-first production configuration are welcome to play, but obviously there are more variables.

For me...
  1. Revised first production range (December ‘17 - February ‘18)
  2. Predicting an invitation date of Tuesday, December 26, 2017 (5 weeks from the start of existing owner invitations)
  3. Predicting a delivery date of Tuesday, January 30, 2018 (5 weeks from predicted order date, 2/3’s through the revised range, and 1 day inside the initial range of Nov. ‘17 - Jan. ‘18)
  4. Configuration: First Production
 

Ct200h

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#2
  1. Revised first production range (December ‘17 - February ‘18)
  2. Predicting an invitation date of January 2nd 2018
  3. Predicting a delivery date of February11th, 2018
  4. Configuration: First Production
I waited in line at Tyson’s corner Va, but didn’t get into the store until 11:30am (line of 400 plus or more)
Not an employee or a current Tesla owner.
Wavering a bit on 1st production once I saw spring 18 for AWD.
I’d like a white interior as well . Not sure what to do.
 

Dr. J

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#4
I'll bet they start cranking out cars now. Wishful thinking, mebbe.

Best guess, based on a sample of one (@danzgator) is delivery smack in the middle of the of the projected time frame for those within 5 blocks of the Fremont factory ;). Everyone else is in the second half of the projected time frame. My projected time is Dec '17-Feb '18, so I'm guessing Jan. 15 to configure and Feb. 15 delivery. Assuming Tesla is not Elon-optimistic on the recently revised time frames.

My wish is that I don't have to take PUP. If I do, I will delay ordering, though that will be excruciatingly painful. :eek:
 

Derik

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#5
1.) Jan - March (updated from tesla) for first production
2.) I'm guessing Jan 17th for invite
3.) Delivery of Feb 16th
4.) First production and going to add EAP
5.) for good measure. Non-tesla owner. Live in So Cal. Reserved 3/31 online prior to reveal. I didn't want to drive to a tesla store, but I'm starting to regret that decision.
 

ASC9er

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#6
I thought it would be June but based on what's happening today, here is my optimistic estimate:
  1. Revised first production range (February ‘18 - April ‘18)
  2. Predicting an invitation date of Wednesday, February 14, 2018
  3. Predicting a delivery date of Saturday, March 24, 2018
  4. Configuration: First Production
By the way today and March 24 are significant dates in my family and I picked Valentine's day as the configuration date so there is no logic to this whatsoever!
 

Poobah

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#7
Non-owner, 1st day in-store reservation (Noonish), east coast (MD)
  1. Revised first production range (December ‘17 - February ‘18)
  2. Predicting an invitation date of February 15th 2018
  3. Predicting a delivery date of March 15th, 2018
  4. Configuration: First Production
Also on March 15th, Congress passes tax bill removing EV tax credit retroactive to all cars delivered ON or after March 15.
I hope I'm wrong ... beware the ides of March! :eek:
 
Last edited:

dogfood

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Snoqualmie, WA
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#8
Alright, so simple game ...
  1. State for range from Tesla
  2. Predict your invitation to configure date
  3. Predict your delivery date
  4. For good measure state your configuration (i.e. first production, or other variants such as standard battery, dual motor, performance, long range battery without premium)
1. FEB-APR
2. Mar 5 invite
3. Mar 31 delivery
4. First production
5. Boy
6. 4691 pounds 10 ounces
 
Last edited:

Prodigal Son

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#9
Reserved online at or sometime before 9PM pacific, and live in the bay area. Non-owner.


1. Jan-Mar is current estimate.
2. Tuesday, 24 April invitation
3. Tuesday, 19 June delivery.
4. Long range premium, EAP, aero, midnight silver.
 
Last edited:

M3OC Rules

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#10
Alright, so simple game ...
  1. State for range from Tesla
  2. Predict your invitation to configure date
  3. Predict your delivery date
  4. For good measure state your configuration (i.e. first production, or other variants such as standard battery, dual motor, performance, long range battery without premium)
International orders and those that will wait for non-first production configuration are welcome to play, but obviously there are more variables.

For me...
  1. Revised first production range (December ‘17 - February ‘18)
  2. Predicting an invitation date of Tuesday, December 26, 2017 (5 weeks from the start of existing owner invitations)
  3. Predicting a delivery date of Tuesday, January 30, 2018 (5 weeks from predicted order date, 2/3’s through the revised range, and 1 day inside the initial range of Nov. ‘17 - Jan. ‘18)
  4. Configuration: First Production
1. Jan-Mar
2. Mar 1st invitation
3. Apr 2nd delivery date
4. First Production

May wait for dual motor if the tax credit goes away.
 

Bokonon

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#11
Non-owner, east coast, 3/31/16 11:30am reservation. I'm still debating First Production vs. AWD, so to make things interesting, I'll guess both.

First Production:
1. December '17 - February '18.
2. January 9th invitation
3. February 14th delivery (though I'd probably a couple of months to order, if there's no penalty)

AWD:
1. September '18 - November '18
2. August 27th invitation :rainbow:
3. September 30th delivery :rainbow::rainbow:
.
 

JWardell

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#12
Non-owner, east coast 4/1/16 8:00AM reservation.

1. Feb-Apr
2. Jan 4 invitation*
3. Feb 3 delivery
4. 1st Production, 18s, Red, EAP.

*The original Model 3 estimator spreadsheet originally predicted my delivery to be Jan 4, which also happens to be my birthday. Tesla has basically slipped a month, so I'm piling up all of my optimism and honoring the original estimate in a fun way here.
 

Prodigal Son

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#13
Non-owner, east coast 4/1/16 8:00AM reservation.

1. Feb-Apr
2. Jan 4 invitation*
3. Feb 3 delivery
4. 1st Production, 18s, Red, EAP.

*The original Model 3 estimator spreadsheet originally predicted my delivery to be Jan 4, which also happens to be my birthday. Tesla has basically slipped a month, so I'm piling up all of my optimism and honoring the original estimate in a fun way here.
Man you are like the opposite of me. My optimism is just gooooooone.
 

Bokonon

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#14
*The original Model 3 estimator spreadsheet originally predicted my delivery to be Jan 4, which also happens to be my birthday. Tesla has basically slipped a month, so I'm piling up all of my optimism and honoring the original estimate in a fun way here.
Funny, I almost put in December 14th (my birthday) as my estimated invitation date, before my three-:rainbow: inner-optimist was overruled by my cold, rational inner-mathematician. Here's hoping we both get a nice birthday surprise...
 

MelindaV

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#15
  1. Feb-April 2018 (reserved online 5am Pacific 4/1/16)
  2. Dec 15
  3. going to be in AZ last week of Feb and Seattle last week of March, so one of those I'm sure
  4. First available, Sport Wheels, Color: TBD, EAP, FSD: TBD
 

SoFlaModel3

@Teslatunity
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#17
I have realized I am likely too optimistic. All of the invites are west coast so far. It’s likely they’ll run existing customers west to east and then day 1 in store pre-unveil west to east.

If you figure 3-4 weeks for each of those cycles then it’s more likely I’m ordering 7 weeks from yesterday.

To redo my prediction:
  1. Order Tuesday, January 9, 2018
  2. Delivery Tuesday, February 13, 2018
That feels a bit more realistic than expecting an east coast car in January.

Will keep my fingers crossed though. Now that we’re so close the wait instantly feels tougher.
 

Derik

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#18
Funny, I almost put in December 14th (my birthday) as my estimated invitation date, before my three-:rainbow: inner-optimist was overruled by my cold, rational inner-mathematician. Here's hoping we both get a nice birthday surprise...
I was hoping for a birthday (12/21) / Christmas present for myself as well. But with the slip I knew I wouldn’t even get to order it by that time. Trying to be realistic is difficult.
 

Kizzy

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#20
  1. Revised first production range (April ‘18 - June ‘18)
  2. Predicting an invitation date of Monday, April 2, 2018 (since April 1 is a Sunday)
  3. Predicting a delivery date of Friday, May 25, 2018 (going for late middle of range, though I'm expecting June sometime, after additional delays)
  4. Configuration: First Production