Just How Much Is FSD Worth?

How Much Is FSD Worth?


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Dan Detweiler

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#1
So, because I am bored and more than interested in this topic, I was wondering just how much this feature could ultimately be worth. If Tesla came out tomorrow with truly full self driving ability, no driver needed at all, what could they charge for that ability and still sell enough of the feature to make it viable? Not really interested in what they WOULD charge, but what they COULD charge. In other words, what would the general public be willing to pay for such ability.

Considering the applications that could be utilized, from transporting the elderly and infirm as well as those no longer able to drive themselves to virtually eliminating the need for multiple cars in a family, to the ability for the car to make money for the owner through autonomous Uber like services when not in use as well as all the other applications, I for one think they could easily charge $15000 or more. Interested in your thoughts though.

Dan
 

ng0

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#4
So if Tesla really came out tomorrow and released FSD and more importantly, 1) proved 100% reliability, and 2) was able to get 100% approval in at least California, then I totally agree that this one feature would be worth 15K+. Like you said, if that was available, and Tesla opened up the "Tesla Network" for ride sharing (since using it for other services is off limits according to the terms of use), you could potentially make money off your car going and picking people up all day long without doing anything. That would easily make up 15-20K in a year.
 

John

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#5
I'm not sure they would let me do it, but I would send it to pick up my in-laws, one of whom can't drive and the other of whom shouldn't.

I'd also send it home instead of parking at the airport, and given how often my wife and I travel for work it would be like having an extra car.

It lets one car do the work of two, which is a big deal in a family of 5.
 

Maevra

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#6
I'd still pay only $3-6k because I don't plan to use it for the Tesla Network or any sort of fully autonomous (no driver in car) activities. FSD in my desired use case would be a truly hands-free driving option, but I'd still want to physically be in the vehicle, just because I don't trust other people with my very expensive car.
 

Matthias Fritz

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#7
I'd still pay only $3-6k because I don't plan to use it for the Tesla Network or any sort of fully autonomous (no driver in car) activities. FSD in my desired use case would be a truly hands-free driving option, but I'd still want to physically be in the vehicle, just because I don't trust other people with my very expensive car.
that is definitely a task for everyone's 2nd car ;)
 

Dan Detweiler

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#8
I'd still pay only $3-6k because I don't plan to use it for the Tesla Network or any sort of fully autonomous (no driver in car) activities. FSD in my desired use case would be a truly hands-free driving option, but I'd still want to physically be in the vehicle, just because I don't trust other people with my very expensive car.
What about transporting under aged family members or those too old to drive safely?

Dan
 

TrevP

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#9
I’m not interested in FSD but if they were to make it $2K you’d probably see me get it. Otherwise make it as a paid service if you put your car into the Tesla network.
 

Maevra

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#10
What about transporting under aged family members or those too old to drive safely?

Dan
I would be ok only if it was an emergency, like a family member needing to go to the hospital and I'm not there to drive them, but overall I'm very uncomfortable with the idea of allowing minors in autonomous vehicles without an adult present (what happens in the event of an accident or kidnapping for instance?). Clearly my theme here is I trust the vehicles... I don't trust the humans.
 

Maevra

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#13
Just to be clear, I was interested in what you think Tesla could charge for such a feature...not necessarily what you would personally pay for it. No way could I swing an extra 15K but I think they could easily charge that much.

Dan
Ah got it, yeah in that case... 10k. It's not a bad price to pay for the huge convenience/peace of mind potential, but anything over that would be a bit much IMO.
 

John

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#14
Also imagine if you could really reliably go to sleep in one city and wake up in another. You could split your time between two cities, for just the cost of a couple of charge-ups each day. You could even stop paying rent. Start looking up two cities you care about that are ~ 8 hours apart by car...

P.S. Preferably destinations with a shower.
 

M3OC Rules

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#15
It kind of depends on how you look at it. For $3k its an expensive option. Lots of people will say I don't mind driving and I wouldn't pay anything for it.(Definitely not me but I've heard it.) But then you start thinking about replacing ride sharing services and having less cars. It easily pays for itself at that price. Then you think of the Tesla network and you're making money on your car. And if you compare it to an Autonomous Waymo or Autonomous Bolt and its a steal if its $15k. $3k is a no brainer for me if its ready to party.
 

M3OC Rules

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#16
Also imagine if you could really reliably go to sleep in one city and wake up in another. You could split your time between two cities, for just the cost of a couple of charge-ups each day. You could even stop paying rent. Start looking up two cities you care about that are ~ 8 hours apart by car...

P.S. Preferably destinations with a shower.
Autonomous RV would be the bomb! Tech CEO lets do this!
 

John

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#17
Autonomous RV would be the bomb! Tech CEO lets do this!
Yeah, we'll hit that retiree market HARD. You with me?

Dealer: "Okay, Fred, Mabel—congratulations on your purchase of the WindStar Vista Auto-Cruiser XLD. You're going to love it!"

Mabel: "Talk to Fred, he's going to do all the driving."

Fred: "What?"

Mabel: "The driving."

Fred: "What driving?"

Mabel: "ALL THE DRIVING!"

Fred: "All the driving, what?"

Mabel: "YOU"RE DOING ALL THE DRIVING!"

Fred: "I know that. Where's the keys?"

Dealer: "Ha, well, funnily enough: there are no keys!"

Fred: "You dumb ass, you knew we were picking it up. Where did you put them?"

Dealer: "There are none."

Fred: "Who makes an RV and forgets to make keys for it? Good lord, son."

Dealer: "No, I mean you don't need keys. You use your smartphone."

Fred: "What smart phone?"

Dealer: "Oh, ****."
 

Twiglett

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#19
I fully expect Tesla to at least double the current price of FSD after they release it for real.
I also slightly less fully expect that they will charge a different price is you also elect to make your car available on the Tesla-Network.
Either a completely different price or a discount or reduction if purchased with the Network. Maybe even a discount program for "Network time"?
 
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#20
Gene Munster, who was a very well regarded Apple analyst for many years, recently estimated that Model 3 owners who put a self driving Tesla on the Tesla Network would earn an average of $7659/year in income after electricity, insurance, maintenance, depreciation, etc. He assumes Tesla keeps 10% of that, so the owner would earn about $6900/year.

That would basically cover the lease payment so you would essentially get a free car (assuming FSD at current price of $3K plus $5K for EAP). Not too shabby.

But this assumes the car is only on the network 6 hours a day less than half the days of the year (170 days). Munster also does a calculation for a car on the network basically full time -- 12 hours per day, 320 days per year -- and estimates it would generate $32,032 per year in income. He does this calculation for a hypothetical Tesla corporate fleet so for a private car you would have to subtract whatever portion is shared with Tesla -- if that's roughly 20% call it $25,000/year in income to the owner.

So how much is FSD worth? When operated in a network, easily tens of thousands of dollars. For an individual driver who does not want to share his car with the network, much harder to value.

(This is value -- I think Tesla will want to build its network as fast as possible so it will likely continue to offer FSD relatively cheap so that as many people as possible buy and use it.)

Munster's analysis is here -- http://loupventures.com/teslas-multiple-billion-dollar-ride-sharing-opportunity/ --
his calculations are at the link toward the bottom of the page.
 
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