Joe Rogan - How Elon Musk's Mind Works ***VIDEO***

Dr. J

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#21
Wall Street is offended, but what's new about that? Elon is not playing their game, and good on him.

However, I think these headlines can influence potential car buyers at the margin. Right now, hell, who cares? Tesla is selling as many cars as they can make, and three times what they can deliver (at least in Texas). For the future, it might help for the company and CEO to mature, to avoid unforced errors. Disclaimer: I haven't watched the video, solely going by the public reaction (which is what most people will do).

In the end, the stock price will follow the car production and sales news which I expect will be very good for Q3. Disclosure: I don't own shares.
 

Gavyne

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#24
But let's wait and see how this shakes out. Today Tesla dropped to 263.24 .... that is a 17.71 point drop today (-6.3%). On August 7, the stock was at 375.

On Yahoo Business News, two headlines caught my eye:
"Markets: Tesla drops to critical support after more executives leave Musk in the dust."

And the second: "Tesla may be veering off course with executives departures."
A couple of things. Reading the headlines is what will get you depressed. Don't read the headlines, don't rely on the media to tell you the news. Read the news yourself from the source. People don't realize news are digested by the mainstream media. Then it is spit out out of context, subjectively, and in small pieces. Why let the media interpret the news for you?

The particular exec that left was brought onboard to Tesla to help Tesla go private. Since it was decided Tesla was staying public, that exec's role was diminished. The reason for him being there no longer applied. He left on his own accord and left a great note for the public to digest. But what did the mainstream media do? They didn't bother reading the good notes, they just took it face value that "yet another exec left". This is a great example of why one should not rely on the media to tell you the news. Always go to the source and study it yourself.

As for the stock prices, anybody who follows Tesla by now should know you buy low when stocks are manipulated to drop this low. Because there's one thing that always happens...it will climb back up. Remember when Q2 earnings call came, and stocks went up because for the first time the numbers looked good, and Tesla looked to be on its way to profitability in Q3/Q4 as Elon stated earlier.

Well we know now that Elon has confirmed from today's company email that went public, that Tesla has produced and delivered over twice the amount of vehicles in Q3 so far as compared to Q2. If investors were happy with Q2's results, what do you think will happen in a month when Q3 earnings call come in? Knowing that Tesla has produced and delivered over TWICE the amount they did in Q2...with 3 weeks still to go in Q3. Tesla is having a record quarter, stocks should be up, yet the stocks are manipulated by well calculated attacks from the media/shorts.

To sum it up, the crap you read about right now are all desperate last resort attacks on Tesla and Elon Musk. This is their last chance before Tesla proves to turn positive GAAP profit. They all know Tesla's Q3 earnings call is coming in 3 weeks, they all see the same charts we've seen, that Model 3 is the #5 car sold in August, and Tesla as a whole outsold BMW in U.S. It's inevitable the stocks will rise when Q3 earnings call come. So who gives a crap the news are down right now? It's all nothing but last resort desperate measures, lots of noises to distract you from a wonderful quarter Tesla is having.

Enjoy the low prices, load up now, you'll feel good later. By the way, Elon's likability has climbed up due to this interview. This was a great interview for him and his brands. Elon looked extremely intelligent, spoke way above most people's intellect, and most importantly he seemed human like "one of us". People in comments section of the interview are actually attacking the media, people who were not Tesla/Elon supporters. Over 3 million views in 24 hours, that is amazing. Don't be down on the interview or the legal drinking and smoking. Instead, shake your heads at the mainstream media for they have failed yet once again.
 

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#25
I caught some of the Rogan interview. My key takeways: Elon is a human being. He's unusually smart and effective, and he has feelings. Literally nothing earthshaking there.

Do I wish we had a COO for Tesla like Gwynne at SpaceX? Sure.

Do I wish he would step back from Twitter? Sure.

Do I think he works way too hard and might be more effective if he delegated more and rested more? Definitely.

Do I think this has any material connection with the excellent quality of work he has inspired at SpaceX or Tesla? No.

Mostly I'm concerned about him as a human being. He is under a massive amount of pressure from the industries he's disrupting. We all know that. They are all multi trillion dollar industries. No good deed goes unpunished, and these are some of the biggest enemies on the globe. Big oil, big auto, military industrial complex, crony capitalists at ULA, Boeing space, etc. The guy has almost unbelievable courage to even attempt these things.

Also the haters, trolls and shorts would probably take a toll on a saint. They are doing little productive, constructive, helpful or beneficial to the planet or human race. Elon is. Keep in mind that oil interests are spending much money on propaganda against Tesla especially.

P.S. I don't buy Apple products or services, but not because Steve Jobs was a massive asshole and probably a much worse person than Elon Musk. I don't buy them because other products and services are just as good at lower prices, and I don't like closed ecosystems. No one is outperforming Tesla or SpaceX in what they're doing. (We have an old Apple II from when it was mostly Steve and Woz. The Mac and the Smartphone were key consumer breakthroughs that we all benefit from, no matter how much of an asshole Steve was.)

P.P.S. I'd be super happy if someone made better cars than Tesla, because they'd need to be pretty good indeed. So far no one has. Given the obstacles and costs, it may take a very long time for others to even come close. So far no one has. The "Tesla killers" from Jaguar, Porsche, Daimler are underwhelming, inefficient and produced in relatively tiny numbers. VW and Toyota may be more competitive after many years. China has the potential to compete, eventually.

The car business is a horrible one to get into. It has extremely high capital costs and very low profit margins. Sort of the opposite of tech. Tesla carved out a smart niche in excellent luxury cars with high profit margins at decreasing prices due to scale and growth. That was (and is) extremely hard to execute.
 
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#26
Looks like we sort of got our wish in a COO for Tesla:

https://www.tesla.com/blog/company-update

Company Update
September 7, 2018

[...]
Jerome Guillen has been promoted to President, Automotive, reporting directly to me. In his new role, Jerome will oversee all automotive operations and program management, as well as coordinate our extensive automotive supply chain. Jerome has made major contributions and acquired deep knowledge of Tesla’s operations over the past eight years at our company, from being the first Model S Program Manager to managing all vehicle programs, then all vehicle engineering and worldwide sales & service. Recently, Jerome played a critical role in ramping Model 3 production, leading what almost all thought was impossible: creation of an entire high-volume General Assembly line for Model 3 in a matter of weeks. Before coming to Tesla, Jerome was responsible for creating and running the most successful semi truck program in history at Daimler’s Freightliner division.

Jerome has done great work at Tesla for a long time, starting with designing and building the Model S assembly process, so this is a good move, and hopefully it will take some of the pressure off Elon and let him focus more on the engineering he likes. (Jerome is very much an engineer also.) He's extremely well positioned to manage all the automotive programs:

https://www.linkedin.com/in/jeromeguillen/


having built up most of them at Tesla. Jerome was a totally logical person to hand off more of the responsibility to. Kind of sorry it took this long to happen, but I'm sure Elon wanted to make sure Model 3 was on solid footing.

Model Y, Semi, and even Roadster are all based on Model 3 to varying degrees. Motors are probably related, battery packs are probably related, etc. Model Y platform may be at least partially based on Model 3's. Model 3 was really the key to all of these next generation vehicles, and they're all related by much higher volume parts and thus lower costs than Models S/X. It was really important that Model 3 got off to a good start. Model 3 also happens to be a truly excellent car.
 
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JeffC

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#28
As someone who's invested in and traded stocks for most of my adult life, I put almost zero credence or care in Tesla's stock price. The main reason it matters is in helping Tesla raise funds if it needs them from capital markets by issuing more stock.

As with Roadster helping fund Model S and Model S and helping fund Model X, and S and X helping fund Model 3, Tesla will take healthy profits from the existing models after their production ramps up and apply those profits to fund future models. That said, the Model Y factory in China will get local capital from China (banks?) also.

Stock price is highly psychological, particularly for startups, new tech companies, growing young companies like Tesla. Only when they become mature and stable companies does the stock price tend to use more common metrics like price to earnings, price to sales, etc.

Tesla has been GAAP profitable, but only intermittently for quarters before re-investing the profits in the next model. This is sort of like financial validation of the profitability of the previous model before moving on to the next one.

(By plowing the profits from the previous models into the next one, Tesla becomes unprofitable again. That's by design. They also raise funds in other ways, such as bonds, notes, etc. All totally normal for a growing manufacturing company.)

Before a (startup/tech/growing) company has steady profits, its stock may be valued on future profits and growth; things that don't yet exist, but are projected to exist in future. Amazon was that way for what, decades before it made a profit?

When Tesla becomes GAAP profitable after Q3, its stock may go down for several reasons:

1. A profitable company can have its stock valued by profits and some other metrics instead of a more vague notion of future profits. The future then becomes now and current performance may become more relevant to the stock price than future possibilities.

2. Buy the rumor, sell the news. Stock prices can and do go up on future expectations. When the expectations are met (or if they're not), stock prices can go down as people sell off after the expected goal has been reached (or not).

PLEASE DO NOT BUY TESLA STOCK ASSUMING THE PRICE MAY GO UP DUE TO AN EXCELLENT Q3 AND/OR GAAP PROFITS. If you do, you MAY lose money. The stock market often does not work that way. In fact, it often works the opposite way: good news leads to a sell off and price decline. If this seems counterintuitive or wrong, I agree. However it very often works that way.

Another way of saying that is future performance is already factored into the price. When the performance is (actually) met, the price can sometimes go down.

I love Tesla and everything it stands for and does, but I do not currently own Tesla stock. It's way overpriced given the nature of the car business, which is extremely capital intensive and generally low profit. It's not an Amazon. It's not a Google. Apple might be closer, but the profits on iPhones, etc. are much larger than on even highly profitable luxury cars. And yes, I do understand the theses about car sharing, automation, transportation as a service, etc. Those may come, but I would not bet on who the winner will be. It could be Tesla; it could be someone else, or some combinations. All the major car makers are working on automation and are highly aware of sharing.

I'd hope Tesla could be as large and profitable as BMW or Daimler, but if it does match their success, its stock might be more likely to be priced according to their standards (i.e. lower) and less like a tech company (i.e. higher).
 
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Grashelm

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#29
PLEASE DO NOT BUY TESLA STOCK ASSUMING THE PRICE MAY GO UP DUE TO AN EXCELLENT Q3 AND/OR GAAP PROFITS. If you do, you MAY lose money.
Or you may make money. You have no more clue than anyone else what the stock price may do. Flip a coin.
 

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#30
Or you may make money. You have no more clue than anyone else what the stock price may do. Flip a coin.
Flipping a coin is not a good investment strategy. :) (Straddles are though, if you expect price movement.)

I gave reasons why Tesla's stock could go down. It could also go up, but when Tesla becomes profitable, it becomes possible to value its stock based on the actual profits and not future expectations. "This **** just got real" to paraphrase the films Bad Boys 2 and Hot Fuzz.

If we value a profitable Tesla like a profitable BMW, the stock price could go down.

If we value a profitable Tesla like a fully autonomous Uber or Waymo (neither of which exist yet commercially and globally), the price could go up.

So "it depends".

I never claimed to know with absolute certainty where the price would go. I do claim to ask people to be cautious and be aware that profitable companies can be valued differently from unprofitable ones.
 
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#31
Joe Rogan's interview with Elon Musk was 2.5 hours chock full of interesting topics - Neuralink chips in our brains, electric VTOL planes and Tesla air conditioning could be in our future! - but all we hear about is the one second that Elon took a puff of smoke. Talk about the media blowing things out of proportion is an understatement.

While I'm upset that my portfolio investment is much lower than what I want or expected it to be, the bottom line is that I should try not to get hung up on things that don't matter in the long run. So what if TSLA is down 30% off its recent high? If I truly believe that Tesla would soon be worth $1 trillion then the current market cap should multiply by more than 22x. I'm totally confident that Tesla will be able to achieve a significant portion of that, at the very least.

Now that Elon's given up on his desire for Tesla to go private he must be feeling somewhere along these lines: stay true to his mission, and show everyone that he "doesn't give a rat's ass about Wall Street." (Thanks @KarenRei for that profound enlightenment!) I should do the same and not get upset whenever the stock price goes down.

Actually, he might be taking it a step further... I believe he stirs up the media on purpose in order to gain free publicity as if applying the same fundamental engineering question to every problem: How do I achieve orders of magnitude improvement on X?

Plus, every mention of "Tesla" and "electric vehicles" sends a shockwave to a plethora of legacy establishments. Now that I think about it, I should be cheering Elon instead of jeering! The sooner the general public learns about the amazing things coming out of Tesla, the sooner we'll reach that tipping point when EVs shall dominate the market.

Tesla shorts are desperate for one last breath of hope. They see indeed what's happening. The disruption is about to hit the automotive world like a tsunami and my investment will eventually go back up... way up!
 

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#32
I have had this discussion at work with a co-worker that shares your opinion. I still think Elon and the accessibility to information on Twitter is actually a good thing.

POTUS — not to make this political — POTUS is on a different level than the CEO of a company and should not be sharing information (positive or negative) in Tweets IMHO.
Transparency is a good thing in general. Twitter is awesome for the ability to share information. Like any tool, it can be misused. Choose wisely. If you can't choose wisely, stay off social media.
 

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#33

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#34
As someone who's invested in and traded stocks for most of my adult life, I put almost zero credence or care in Tesla's stock price. The main reason it matters is in helping Tesla raise funds if it needs them from capital markets by issuing more stock.

As with Roadster helping fund Model S and Model S and helping fund Model X, and S and X helping fund Model 3, Tesla will take healthy profits from the existing models after their production ramps up and apply those profits to fund future models. That said, the Model Y factory in China will get local capital from China (banks?) also.

Stock price is highly psychological, particularly for startups, new tech companies, growing young companies like Tesla. Only when they become mature and stable companies does the stock price tend to use more common metrics like price to earnings, price to sales, etc.

Tesla has been GAAP profitable, but only intermittently for quarters before re-investing the profits in the next model. This is sort of like financial validation of the profitability of the previous model before moving on to the next one.

(By plowing the profits from the previous models into the next one, Tesla becomes unprofitable again. That's by design. They also raise funds in other ways, such as bonds, notes, etc. All totally normal for a growing manufacturing company.)

Before a (startup/tech/growing) company has steady profits, its stock may be valued on future profits and growth; things that don't yet exist, but are projected to exist in future. Amazon was that way for what, decades before it made a profit?

When Tesla becomes GAAP profitable after Q3, its stock may go down for several reasons:

1. A profitable company can have its stock valued by profits and some other metrics instead of a more vague notion of future profits. The future then becomes now and current performance may become more relevant to the stock price than future possibilities.

2. Buy the rumor, sell the news. Stock prices can and do go up on future expectations. When the expectations are met (or if they're not), stock prices can go down as people sell off after the expected goal has been reached (or not).

PLEASE DO NOT BUY TESLA STOCK ASSUMING THE PRICE MAY GO UP DUE TO AN EXCELLENT Q3 AND/OR GAAP PROFITS. If you do, you MAY lose money. The stock market often does not work that way. In fact, it often works the opposite way: good news leads to a sell off and price decline. If this seems counterintuitive or wrong, I agree. However it very often works that way.

Another way of saying that is future performance is already factored into the price. When the performance is (actually) met, the price can sometimes go down.

I love Tesla and everything it stands for and does, but I do not currently own Tesla stock. It's way overpriced given the nature of the car business, which is extremely capital intensive and generally low profit. It's not an Amazon. It's not a Google. Apple might be closer, but the profits on iPhones, etc. are much larger than on even highly profitable luxury cars. And yes, I do understand the theses about car sharing, automation, transportation as a service, etc. Those may come, but I would not bet on who the winner will be. It could be Tesla; it could be someone else, or some combinations. All the major car makers are working on automation and are highly aware of sharing.

I'd hope Tesla could be as large and profitable as BMW or Daimler, but if it does match their success, its stock might be more likely to be priced according to their standards (i.e. lower) and less like a tech company (i.e. higher).
There's a lot that's reasonable about this, but to the counterpoint: "the rumour" on Q3 right now is very bad. It would be extremely hard - IMHO - for Tesla to underperform current market expectations. Exact same situation we were in at the end of Q2. The market had gotten so unbelievably pessimistic about Tesla that it was almost impossible for them to underperform.

I also strongly disagree with the notion that "if Tesla shows a profit then they'll start evaluating it like any other car company". People aren't going to just say "Oh, they turned a profit? Then we can totally forget about its future potential." Now, if we were talking about Tesla terminating investment in growth and starting to pay dividends, sure, that's how the market would evaluate the company. But Tesla turning a profit isn't going to just suddenly cause people to think, "Oh, all that stuff we were super-excited about, like Giga 3 and 4, solar roof, Semi, Pickup, Model Y, etc etc etc? Meh, that's all irrelevant now."

All of this said: I don't expect Q3 to be a "breakout" period. Right now I think a Q3 spike is almost inevitable because expectations are so low, but I don't expect it to be sustained because I also know how good the shorts are at FUD, and I'm sure they'll manage to convince enough people over time "this was a one time thing, but NEXT QUARTER, they're DOOMED for sure!". I think they'll have a much harder time of it after two profitable quarters, and particularly after three. So my timeframe for breakout is after the Q4 report, potentially as far as the Q1 report. Depends on how things play out.
 

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#35
There's a lot that's reasonable about this, but to the counterpoint: "the rumour" on Q3 right now is very bad. It would be extremely hard - IMHO - for Tesla to underperform current market expectations. Exact same situation we were in at the end of Q2. The market had gotten so unbelievably pessimistic about Tesla that it was almost impossible for them to underperform.

I also strongly disagree with the notion that "if Tesla shows a profit then they'll start evaluating it like any other car company". People aren't going to just say "Oh, they turned a profit? Then we can totally forget about its future potential." Now, if we were talking about Tesla terminating investment in growth and starting to pay dividends, sure, that's how the market would evaluate the company. But Tesla turning a profit isn't going to just suddenly cause people to think, "Oh, all that stuff we were super-excited about, like Giga 3 and 4, solar roof, Semi, Pickup, Model Y, etc etc etc? Meh, that's all irrelevant now."

All of this said: I don't expect Q3 to be a "breakout" period. Right now I think a Q3 spike is almost inevitable because expectations are so low, but I don't expect it to be sustained because I also know how good the shorts are at FUD, and I'm sure they'll manage to convince enough people over time "this was a one time thing, but NEXT QUARTER, they're DOOMED for sure!". I think they'll have a much harder time of it after two profitable quarters, and particularly after three. So my timeframe for breakout is after the Q4 report, potentially as far as the Q1 report. Depends on how things play out.
I expect Q3 to be record settingly large and very successful. Tesla buffered up many thousands of Model 3s to not ship before July in order to maximize the U.S. Federal tax credit. So there is a big jump in the deliveries July through September. Q3 looks great to me. Rumors to the contrary would seem to disagree with reported sales figures.

I wasn't saying that profit = totally different valuation. I meant that it could affect the way part of the valuations are done in a negative way. The future prospects for Tesla remain, but the concrete production and profit numbers means there's a more objective/classical way to value the actual, current production. When a company lacks profits, the valuations can be be basically anything. When they have real, sustained profits, the usual measurements like price/sales start to become much more meaningful. (Sort of like quantum information revealing itself when measured.)

That said, I agree with you that profits may not come until Q4 or even Q1 due to the production ramp needed to reach profitable economies of scale. (The great news is that the ramp appears to be going well.)

Profits may eventually lend a dose of downward reality to the stock price.

Or profits could confirm that all the plans are working, and indicate that Tesla could be a much bigger company in future.

I personally see no reason why Tesla's success should not continue (barring, say, recession). Since SUVs unfortunately outsell sedans, Model Y has more potential than Model 3, which is doing great, and Semi already has perhaps thousands of orders. (Recession delayed, but did not stop, the success of Model S.)

Keep in mind that the stock price is so high that it already assumes a lot of success, possibly too much.

I'm 100% pro-Tesla, but want to inject some reality into thoughts about the stock valuation. (And yes, not everyone likes reality... ;) ) I am not a short seller or long holder. I have no positions in TSLA.
 
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#36
However, I used Mr. Musk's recent questionable public behavior and the resultant silde in stock price to double down as a shareholder.
I'm not sure if it was due to the interview or the two executive departures - probably a combination of both. But that was a severe over-reaction by the market.

I took advantage as well. Bought more shares under $260.
So far, I feel like I won at timing the market. That never happens. :)
 

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#37
You're right, Garsh. We timed our entrance well at under $260, but that means nothing without a well timed exit. Long haul? Probably not for me(too volatile for my stomach!). So, for me that leaves 2 options, take yesterdays gain( about 7% for one weekend, not bad) or wait for Q3 results, then sell. I decided to take my gain. Still 4 weeks to Q3 results, plenty of time for Elon to do something nutty again, then I'll get back in.
 

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#39
Clearly, we all hope that buy and hold pays off big, I just can't risk retirement investments on anything this volatile. As a rule, I don't endeavor to time the market, but TSLA has had so many huge and sudden ups and downs over the past 3 years that profitable timing has been relatively easy and consistent. I take delivery of my P3D- in six days and about 25% has been paid for by my in and out strategy. Probably back to humdrum slow growth handled by my advisors for me(thus far they have absolutely, flatly, refused to trade TSLA for me).
 

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#40
TBH I would follow Elon's advice and not invest in a stock as volatile as Tesla's, particularly for a retirement account, if volatility is an issue. There are lots of good resources for advice on investments. For my retirement accounts, I prefer stocks that I can buy and hold and basically forget about, with a good-till-cancelled 25% trailing stop for safety (always use trailing stops); really solid, boring and safe companies, mostly like Bill Gates Foundation's portfolio minus the oil company. (google it)

To repeat: I love Tesla and its mission and support it fully (including with my hard earned money for buying one). I am not a short seller or long holder and have no positions in its stock.